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M. Gabriela M. Gomes, Marcelo U. Ferreira, Rodrigo M. Corder, Jessica G. King, Caetano Souto-Maior, Carlos Penha‐Gonçalves, Guilherme Gonçalves, Maria D. Chikina, Wesley Pegden, Ricardo J. Aguas
Individual variation in susceptibility and exposure is subject to selection by natural infection, accelerating the acquisition of immunity, and reducing herd immunity thresholds and epidemic final sizes. This is a manifestation of a wider population phenomenon known as “frailty variation”. Despite theoretical understanding, public health policies continue to be guided by mathematical models that leave out considerable variation and as a result inflate projected disease burdens and overestimate the impact of interventions. Here we focus on trajectories of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic in England and Scotland until November 2021. We fit models to series of daily deaths and infer relevant epidemiological parameters, including coefficients of variation and effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions which we find in agreement with independent empirical estimates based on contact surveys. Our estimates are robust to whether the analysed data series encompass one or two pandemic waves and enable projections compatible with subsequent dynamics. We conclude that vaccination programmes may have contributed modestly to the acquisition of herd immunity in populations with high levels of pre-existing naturally acquired immunity, while being critical to protect vulnerable individuals from severe outcomes as the virus becomes endemic. Graphical Abstract Highlights Variation in susceptibility/exposure responds to selection by natural infection Selection on susceptibility/exposure flattens epidemic curves Models with incomplete heterogeneity overestimate intervention impacts Individual variation lowered the natural herd immunity threshold for SARS-CoV-2
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Gomes, M. G. M., Ferreira, M. U., Corder, R. M., King, J. G., Souto-Maior, C., Penha‐Gonçalves, C., Gonçalves, G., Chikina, M. D., Pegden, W., & Aguas, R. J. (2022). Individual variation in susceptibility or exposure to SARS-CoV-2 lowers the herd immunity threshold. Journal of Theoretical Biology, 540, 111063. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtbi.2022.111063
Gomes, M. Gabriela M., et al. "Individual variation in susceptibility or exposure to SARS-CoV-2 lowers the herd immunity threshold." Journal of Theoretical Biology, vol. 540, 2022, pp. 111063, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtbi.2022.111063.
Gomes, M. Gabriela M., Marcelo U. Ferreira, Rodrigo M. Corder, Jessica G. King, Caetano Souto-Maior, Carlos Penha‐Gonçalves, Guilherme Gonçalves, Maria D. Chikina, Wesley Pegden, and Ricardo J. Aguas. "Individual variation in susceptibility or exposure to SARS-CoV-2 lowers the herd immunity threshold." Journal of Theoretical Biology 540 (2022): 111063. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtbi.2022.111063.
Gomes M. G. M., Ferreira M. U., Corder R. M. [и др.] Individual variation in susceptibility or exposure to SARS-CoV-2 lowers the herd immunity threshold // Journal of Theoretical Biology. — 2022. — Vol. 540. — P. 111063. — URL: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtbi.2022.111063
@article{gomes2022individual,
title = {{Individual variation in susceptibility or exposure to SARS-CoV-2 lowers the herd immunity threshold}},
author = {M. Gabriela M. Gomes and Marcelo U. Ferreira and Rodrigo M. Corder and Jessica G. King and Caetano Souto-Maior and Carlos Penha‐Gonçalves and Guilherme Gonçalves and Maria D. Chikina and Wesley Pegden and Ricardo J. Aguas},
journal = {Journal of Theoretical Biology},
year = {2022},
volume = {540},
pages = {111063},
doi = {10.1016/j.jtbi.2022.111063},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtbi.2022.111063}
}TY - JOUR AU - Gomes, M. Gabriela M. AU - Ferreira, Marcelo U. AU - Corder, Rodrigo M. AU - King, Jessica G. AU - Souto-Maior, Caetano AU - Penha‐Gonçalves, Carlos AU - Gonçalves, Guilherme AU - Chikina, Maria D. AU - Pegden, Wesley AU - Aguas, Ricardo J. TI - Individual variation in susceptibility or exposure to SARS-CoV-2 lowers the herd immunity threshold JO - Journal of Theoretical Biology VL - 540 SP - 111063 PY - 2022 DA - 2022/02/18 DO - 10.1016/j.jtbi.2022.111063 UR - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtbi.2022.111063 ER -
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