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Kanyin Liane Ong, Lauryn K Stafford, Susan A. McLaughlin, Edward J. Boyko, Stein Emil Vollset, Amanda Elizabeth Smith, Bronte E Dalton, Joe Duprey, Jessica A Cruz, Hailey Hagins and 785 more
BACKGROUND: Diabetes is one of the leading causes of death and disability worldwide, and affects people regardless of country, age group, or sex. Using the most recent evidentiary and analytical framework from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD), we produced location-specific, age-specific, and sex-specific estimates of diabetes prevalence and burden from 1990 to 2021, the proportion of type 1 and type 2 diabetes in 2021, the proportion of the type 2 diabetes burden attributable to selected risk factors, and projections of diabetes prevalence through 2050. METHODS: Estimates of diabetes prevalence and burden were computed in 204 countries and territories, across 25 age groups, for males and females separately and combined; these estimates comprised lost years of healthy life, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs; defined as the sum of years of life lost [YLLs] and years lived with disability [YLDs]). We used the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) approach to estimate deaths due to diabetes, incorporating 25 666 location-years of data from vital registration and verbal autopsy reports in separate total (including both type 1 and type 2 diabetes) and type-specific models. Other forms of diabetes, including gestational and monogenic diabetes, were not explicitly modelled. Total and type 1 diabetes prevalence was estimated by use of a Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, to analyse 1527 location-years of data from the scientific literature, survey microdata, and insurance claims; type 2 diabetes estimates were computed by subtracting type 1 diabetes from total estimates. Mortality and prevalence estimates, along with standard life expectancy and disability weights, were used to calculate YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs. When appropriate, we extrapolated estimates to a hypothetical population with a standardised age structure to allow comparison in populations with different age structures. We used the comparative risk assessment framework to estimate the risk-attributable type 2 diabetes burden for 16 risk factors falling under risk categories including environmental and occupational factors, tobacco use, high alcohol use, high body-mass index (BMI), dietary factors, and low physical activity. Using a regression framework, we forecast type 1 and type 2 diabetes prevalence through 2050 with Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and high BMI as predictors, respectively. FINDINGS: In 2021, there were 529 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 500-564) people living with diabetes worldwide, and the global age-standardised total diabetes prevalence was 6·1% (5·8-6·5). At the super-region level, the highest age-standardised rates were observed in north Africa and the Middle East (9·3% [8·7-9·9]) and, at the regional level, in Oceania (12·3% [11·5-13·0]). Nationally, Qatar had the world's highest age-specific prevalence of diabetes, at 76·1% (73·1-79·5) in individuals aged 75-79 years. Total diabetes prevalence-especially among older adults-primarily reflects type 2 diabetes, which in 2021 accounted for 96·0% (95·1-96·8) of diabetes cases and 95·4% (94·9-95·9) of diabetes DALYs worldwide. In 2021, 52·2% (25·5-71·8) of global type 2 diabetes DALYs were attributable to high BMI. The contribution of high BMI to type 2 diabetes DALYs rose by 24·3% (18·5-30·4) worldwide between 1990 and 2021. By 2050, more than 1·31 billion (1·22-1·39) people are projected to have diabetes, with expected age-standardised total diabetes prevalence rates greater than 10% in two super-regions: 16·8% (16·1-17·6) in north Africa and the Middle East and 11·3% (10·8-11·9) in Latin America and Caribbean. By 2050, 89 (43·6%) of 204 countries and territories will have an age-standardised rate greater than 10%. INTERPRETATION: Diabetes remains a substantial public health issue. Type 2 diabetes, which makes up the bulk of diabetes cases, is largely preventable and, in some cases, potentially reversible if identified and managed early in the disease course. However, all evidence indicates that diabetes prevalence is increasing worldwide, primarily due to a rise in obesity caused by multiple factors. Preventing and controlling type 2 diabetes remains an ongoing challenge. It is essential to better understand disparities in risk factor profiles and diabetes burden across populations, to inform strategies to successfully control diabetes risk factors within the context of multiple and complex drivers. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Ong, K. L., Stafford, L. K., McLaughlin, S. A., Boyko, E. J., Vollset, S. E., Smith, A. E., Dalton, B. E., Duprey, J., Cruz, J. A., Hagins, H., Lindstedt, P. A., Aali, A., Abate, Y. H., Abate, M. D., Abbasian, M., Abbasi-Kangevari, Z., Abbasi‐Kangevari, M., ElHafeez, S. A., Abd‐Rabu, R., … Vos, T. (2023). Global, regional, and national burden of diabetes from 1990 to 2021, with projections of prevalence to 2050: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. The Lancet, 402(10397), 203–234. https://doi.org/10.1016/s0140-6736(23)01301-6
Ong, Kanyin Liane, et al. "Global, regional, and national burden of diabetes from 1990 to 2021, with projections of prevalence to 2050: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021." The Lancet, vol. 402, no. 10397, 2023, pp. 203–234, https://doi.org/10.1016/s0140-6736(23)01301-6.
Ong, Kanyin Liane, Lauryn K Stafford, Susan A. McLaughlin, Edward J. Boyko, Stein Emil Vollset, Amanda Elizabeth Smith, Bronte E Dalton, et al. "Global, regional, and national burden of diabetes from 1990 to 2021, with projections of prevalence to 2050: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021." The Lancet 402, no. 10397 (2023): 203–234. https://doi.org/10.1016/s0140-6736(23)01301-6.
Ong K. L., Stafford L. K., McLaughlin S. A. [и др.] Global, regional, and national burden of diabetes from 1990 to 2021, with projections of prevalence to 2050: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 // The Lancet. — 2023. — Vol. 402, № 10397. — P. 203–234. — URL: https://doi.org/10.1016/s0140-6736(23)01301-6
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title = {{Global, regional, and national burden of diabetes from 1990 to 2021, with projections of prevalence to 2050: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021}},
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Nigatu and Dina Nur Anggraini Ningrum and Muhammad A Nizam and Lawrence Achilles Nnyanzi and Mamoona Noreen and Jean Jacques Noubiap and Ogochukwu Janet Nzoputam and Chimezie Igwegbe Nzoputam and Bogdan Oancea and Nkechi Martina Odogwu and Oluwakemi Ololade Odukoya and Vivek Anand Ojha and Hassan Okati‐Aliabad and Akinkunmi Paul Okekunle and Osaretin Christabel Okonji and Patrick Godwin Okwute and Isaac Iyinoluwa Olufadewa and Obinna Emmanuel Onwujekwe and Michał Ordak and Alberto Ortíz and Uchechukwu Levi Osuagwu and Abderrahim Oulhaj and Mayowa Ojo Owolabi and Alicia Padrón‐Monedero and Jagadish Rao Padubidri and Raffaele Palladino and Demosthenes B. 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Tonelli and Marcos Roberto Tovani‐Palone and Domenico Tricò and Indang Trihandini and Jaya Prasad Tripathy and Samuel Joseph Tromans and Guesh Mebrahtom and Abdul Rohim Tualeka and Derara Girma and Stefanos Tyrovolas and Sana Ullah and Era Upadhyay and Seyed Mohammad Vahabi and Asokan Govindaraj Vaithinathan and Rohollah Valizadeh and Kim Robin van Daalen and Priya Vart and Shoban Babu Varthya and Tommi Juhani Vasankari and Siavash Vaziri and Madhur Verma and Georgios‐Ioannis Verras and Danh Cao Vo and Birhanu Wagaye and Yasir Waheed and Ziyue Wang and Yanqing Wang and Cong Wang and Fang Wang and Gizachew Tadesse Wassie and Melissa Y. Wei and Abrha Hailay and Ronny Westerman and Nuwan Darshana Wickramasinghe and Yifan Wu and Ratna Dwi Wulandari and Juan Xia and Hong Xiao and Suowen Xu and Xiaoyue Xu and Dereje Y Yada and Lin Yang and Hiroshi Yatsuya and Metin Yeşiltepe and Siyan Yi and Hunachew Kibret Yohannis and Naohiro Yonemoto and Yuyi You and Sojib Bin Zaman and Nelson Zamora and Iman Zare and Kourosh Zarea and Armin Zarrintan and Михаил Сергеевич Застрожин and Naod Gebrekrstos Zeru and Zhi-Jiang Zhang and Chenwen Zhong and Zhiyong Zou and Magdalena Zielińska and Yossef Teshome Zikarg and SANJAY P. ZODPEY and Mohammad Zoladl and Zhiyong Zou and Alimuddin I. Zumla and Yves Miel H Zuñiga and Dianna J. Magliano and Christopher J L Murray and Simon Iain Hay and Theo Vos},
journal = {The Lancet},
year = {2023},
volume = {402},
number = {10397},
pages = {203--234},
doi = {10.1016/s0140-6736(23)01301-6},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/s0140-6736(23)01301-6}
}TY - JOUR AU - Ong, Kanyin Liane AU - Stafford, Lauryn K AU - McLaughlin, Susan A. AU - Boyko, Edward J. AU - Vollset, Stein Emil AU - Smith, Amanda Elizabeth AU - Dalton, Bronte E AU - Duprey, Joe AU - Cruz, Jessica A AU - Hagins, Hailey AU - Lindstedt, Paulina A AU - Aali, Amirali AU - Abate, Yohannes Habtegiorgis AU - Abate, Melsew Dagne AU - Abbasian, Mohammadreza AU - Abbasi-Kangevari, Zeinab AU - Abbasi‐Kangevari, Mohsen AU - ElHafeez, Samar Abd AU - Abd‐Rabu, Rami AU - Abdulah, Deldar Morad AU - Abdullah, Abu Yousuf Md AU - Abedi, Vida AU - Abidi, Hassan AU - Aboagye, Richard Gyan AU - Abolhassani, Hassan AU - Abu‐Gharbieh, Eman AU - Abu‐Zaid, Ahmed AU - Adane, Tigist Demssew AU - Adane, Denberu Eshetie AU - Addo, Isaac Yeboah AU - Adegboye, Oyelola Abdulwasiu AU - Adekanmbi, Victor AU - Adepoju, Victor Abiola AU - Adnani, Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah AU - Afolabi, Rotimi Felix AU - Agarwal, Gina AU - Aghdam, Zahra Babaei AU - Agudelo‐Botero, Marcela AU - Arriagada, Constanza Elizabeth Aguilera AU - Agyemang‐Duah, Williams AU - Ahinkorah, Bright Opoku AU - Ahmad, Danish AU - Ahmad, Rizwan AU - Ahmad, Sajjad AU - Ahmad, Aqeel AU - Ahmadi, Ali AU - Ahmadi, Keivan AU - Ahmed, Ayman AU - Ahmed, Ali AU - Ahmed, Luai Awad AU - Ahmed, Syed Anees AU - Ajami, Marjan AU - Akinyemi, Rufus AU - Hamad, Hanadi Khamis Al AU - Hasan, Syed Mahfuz Al AU - AL-Ahdal, Tareq Mohammed Ali AU - Alalwan, Tariq A. AU - Al‐Aly, Ziyad AU - AlBataineh, Mohammad T AU - Rabanal, Jacqueline Elizabeth Alcalde AU - Alemi, Sharifullah AU - Ali, Hassam AU - Alinia, Tahereh AU - Aljunid, Syed Mohamed AU - Almustanyir, Sami AU - Al-Raddadi, Rajaa Mohammad AU - Alvis‐Guzmán, Nelson AU - Amare, Firehiwot AU - Ameyaw, Edward Kwabena AU - Amiri, Sohrab AU - Amusa, Ganiyu Adeniyi AU - Andrei, Cătălina Liliana AU - Anjana, Ranjit Mohan AU - Ansar, Adnan AU - Ansari, Golnoosh AU - Ansari‐Moghaddam, Alireza AU - Anyasodor, Anayochukwu Edward AU - Arabloo, Jalal AU - Aravkin, Aleksandr Y. AU - Areda, Demelash AU - Arifin, Hidayat AU - Arkew, Mesay AU - Armocida, Benedetta AU - Ärnlöv, Johan AU - Artamonov, Anton A AU - Arulappan, Judie AU - Aruleba, Raphael Taiwo AU - Arumugam, Ashokan AU - Aryan, Zahra AU - Tiruneh, Mulu AU - Jafarabadi, Mohammad Asghari AU - Askari, Elaheh AU - Asmelash, Daniel AU - Astell‐Burt, Thomas AU - Athar, Mohammad AU - Athari, Seyyed Shamsadin AU - Atout, Maha Moh’d Wahbi AU - Ávila‐Burgos, Leticia AU - Awaisu, Ahmed AU - Azadnajafabad, Sina AU - Bhagawan, Darshan AU - Babamohamadi, Hassan AU - Badar, Muhammad AU - Badawi, Alaa F. AU - Badiye, Ashish AU - Baghcheghi, Nayereh AU - Bagheri, Nasser AU - Bagherieh, Sara AU - Bah, Sulaiman M. 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AU - Bodolica, Virginia AU - Boloor, Archith AU - Brauer, Michael D AU - Brazo‐Sayavera, Javier AU - Brenner, Hermann AU - Butt, Zahid A AU - Călina, Daniela Cornelia AU - Campos, Luciana Aparecida AU - Campos‐Nonato, Ismael AU - Cao, Yin AU - Cao, Chao AU - Car, Josip AU - Carvalho, Márcia C. AU - Castañeda-Orjuela, Carlos Andrés AU - Catalá-López, Ferrán AU - Cerin, Ester AU - Chadwick, Joshua AU - Chandrasekar, Eeshwar K AU - Chanie, Gashaw Sisay AU - Charan, Jaykaran AU - Chattu, Vijay Kumar AU - Chauhan, Kirti AU - Cheema, Huzaifa Ahmad AU - Abebe, Endeshaw Chekol AU - Chen, Simiao AU - Cherbuin, Nicolas AU - Chichagi, Fatemeh AU - Chidambaram, Saravana Babu AU - Cho, William Chi Shing AU - Choudhari, Sonali Gajanan AU - Chowdhury, Rajiv AU - Chowdhury, E. AU - Chu, Dinh‐Toi AU - Chukwu, Isaac Sunday AU - Chung, Sheng‐Chia AU - Coberly, Kaleb AU - Columbus, Alyssa AU - Contreras, Daniela AU - Cousin, Ewerton AU - Criqui, Michael H. AU - Martins, Natália Alves AU - Cuschieri, Sarah AU - Dabo, Bashir AU - Dadras, Omid AU - Dai, Xiaochen AU - Damasceno, Albertino Antonio Moura AU - Dandona, Rakhi AU - Dandona, Lalit AU - Das, Saswati AU - Dascălu, Ana Maria AU - Dash, Nihar Ranjan AU - Dashti, Mohsen AU - Dávila-Cervantes, Claudio Alberto AU - Cruz-Góngora, Vanessa Vianey De la AU - Debele, Gebiso Roba AU - Delpasand, Kourosh AU - Demisse, Fitsum Wolde AU - Demissie, Getu Debalkie AU - Deng, Xin AU - Denova‐Gutiérrez, Edgar AU - Deo, Salil Vasudeo AU - Dervišević, Emina AU - Desai, Hardik Dineshbhai AU - Desale, Aragaw Tesfaw AU - Dessie, Anteneh Mengist AU - Desta, Fikreab AU - Dewan, Syed Masudur Rahman AU - Dey, Sourav AU - Dhama, Kuldeep AU - Dhimal, Meghnath AU - Diao, Nancy AU - Díaz, Daniel AU - Dinu, Monica AU - Diress, Mengistie AU - Djalalinia, Shirin AU - Doan, Linh Phuong AU - Dongarwar, Deepa AU - Figueiredo, Francisco Winter dos Santos AU - Duncan, Bruce Bartholow AU - Dutta, Siddhartha AU - Dziedzic, Arkadiusz Marian AU - Edinur, Hisham Atan AU - Ekholuenetale, Michael AU - Ekundayo, Temitope Cyrus AU - Elgendy, Islam Y. 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AU - Ismail, Nahlah Elkudssiah AU - Iso, Hiroyasu AU - Isola, Gaetano AU - Itumalla, Ramaiah AU - Iwagami, Masao AU - Iwu, Chidozie C D AU - Iyamu, Ihoghosa Osamuyi AU - Iyasu, Assefa N AU - Jacob, Louis AU - Jafarzadeh, Abdollah AU - Jahrami, Haitham AU - Jain, Rajesh Kumar AU - Jaja, Chinwe AU - Jamalpoor, Zahra AU - Jamshidi, Elham AU - Janakiraman, Balamurugan AU - Jayanna, Krishnamurthy AU - Jayapal, Sathish Kumar AU - Jayaram, Shubha AU - Jayawardena, Ranil AU - Jebai, Rime AU - Jeong, Wonjeong AU - Jin, Yinzi AU - Jokar, Mohammad AU - Jonas, Jost Bruno AU - Joseph, Nitin AU - Joseph, Abel A. AU - Joshua, Charity Ehimwenma AU - Joukar, Farahnaz AU - Jozwiak, Jacek Jerzy AU - Kaambwa, Billingsley AU - Kabir, Ali AU - Kabthymer, Robel Hussen AU - Kadashetti, Vidya AU - Kahe, Farima AU - Kalhor, Rohollah AU - Kandel, Himal AU - Karanth, Shama D. AU - Karaye, Ibraheem M. AU - Karkhah, Samad AU - Katoto, Patrick DMC AU - Kaur, Navjot AU - Kazemian, Sina AU - Kebede, Sewnet Adem AU - Khader, Yousef Saleh AU - Khajuria, Himanshu AU - Khalaji, Amirmohammad AU - Khan, Moien AB AU - Khan, Maseer AU - Khan, Ajmal AU - Khanal, Saval AU - Khatatbeh, Moawiah Mohammad AU - Khater, Amir M AU - Khateri, Sorour AU - Khorashadizadeh, Fatemeh AU - Khubchandani, Jagdish AU - Kibret, Biruk Getahun AU - Kim, Min Seo AU - Kimokoti, Ruth W AU - Kısa, Adnan AU - B, Mika Kivimaki AU - Kolahi, Ali‐Asghar AU - Komaki, Somayeh AU - Kompani, Farzad AU - Koohestani, Hamid Reza AU - Korzh, Oleksii AU - Kostev, Karel AU - Kothari, Nikhil AU - Koyanagi, Ai AU - Krishan, Kewal AU - Krishnamoorthy, Yuvaraj AU - Defo, Barthélémy Kuate AU - Kuddus, Mohammed AU - Kuddus, Md Abdul AU - Kumar, Rakesh AU - Kumar, Harish AU - Kundu, Satyajit AU - Kurniasari, Maria Dyah AU - Kuttikkattu, Ambily AU - Vecchia, Carlo La AU - Lallukka, Tea M. AU - Larijani, Bagher A. AU - Larsson, Anders O. 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AU - Hailay, Abrha AU - Westerman, Ronny AU - Wickramasinghe, Nuwan Darshana AU - Wu, Yifan AU - Wulandari, Ratna Dwi AU - Xia, Juan AU - Xiao, Hong AU - Xu, Suowen AU - Xu, Xiaoyue AU - Yada, Dereje Y AU - Yang, Lin AU - Yatsuya, Hiroshi AU - Yeşiltepe, Metin AU - Yi, Siyan AU - Yohannis, Hunachew Kibret AU - Yonemoto, Naohiro AU - You, Yuyi AU - Zaman, Sojib Bin AU - Zamora, Nelson AU - Zare, Iman AU - Zarea, Kourosh AU - Zarrintan, Armin AU - Застрожин, Михаил Сергеевич AU - Zeru, Naod Gebrekrstos AU - Zhang, Zhi-Jiang AU - Zhong, Chenwen AU - Zou, Zhiyong AU - Zielińska, Magdalena AU - Zikarg, Yossef Teshome AU - ZODPEY, SANJAY P. AU - Zoladl, Mohammad AU - Zou, Zhiyong AU - Zumla, Alimuddin I. AU - Zuñiga, Yves Miel H AU - Magliano, Dianna J. AU - Murray, Christopher J L AU - Hay, Simon Iain AU - Vos, Theo TI - Global, regional, and national burden of diabetes from 1990 to 2021, with projections of prevalence to 2050: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 JO - The Lancet VL - 402 IS - 10397 SP - 203 EP - 234 PY - 2023 DA - 2023/06/23 DO - 10.1016/s0140-6736(23)01301-6 UR - https://doi.org/10.1016/s0140-6736(23)01301-6 ER -
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