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Natalia V Bhattacharjee, Austin E Schumacher, Amirali Aali, Yohannes Habtegiorgis Abate, Rouzbeh Abbasgholizadeh, Mohammadreza Abbasian, Mohsen Abbasi‐Kangevari, Hedayat Abbastabar, Samar Abd ElHafeez, Sherief Mohamed Abd-Elsalam and 1396 more
BACKGROUND: Accurate assessments of current and future fertility-including overall trends and changing population age structures across countries and regions-are essential to help plan for the profound social, economic, environmental, and geopolitical challenges that these changes will bring. Estimates and projections of fertility are necessary to inform policies involving resource and health-care needs, labour supply, education, gender equality, and family planning and support. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 produced up-to-date and comprehensive demographic assessments of key fertility indicators at global, regional, and national levels from 1950 to 2021 and forecast fertility metrics to 2100 based on a reference scenario and key policy-dependent alternative scenarios. METHODS: To estimate fertility indicators from 1950 to 2021, mixed-effects regression models and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression were used to synthesise data from 8709 country-years of vital and sample registrations, 1455 surveys and censuses, and 150 other sources, and to generate age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) for 5-year age groups from age 10 years to 54 years. ASFRs were summed across age groups to produce estimates of total fertility rate (TFR). Livebirths were calculated by multiplying ASFR and age-specific female population, then summing across ages 10-54 years. To forecast future fertility up to 2100, our Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) forecasting model was based on projections of completed cohort fertility at age 50 years (CCF50; the average number of children born over time to females from a specified birth cohort), which yields more stable and accurate measures of fertility than directly modelling TFR. CCF50 was modelled using an ensemble approach in which three sub-models (with two, three, and four covariates variously consisting of female educational attainment, contraceptive met need, population density in habitable areas, and under-5 mortality) were given equal weights, and analyses were conducted utilising the MR-BRT (meta-regression-Bayesian, regularised, trimmed) tool. To capture time-series trends in CCF50 not explained by these covariates, we used a first-order autoregressive model on the residual term. CCF50 as a proportion of each 5-year ASFR was predicted using a linear mixed-effects model with fixed-effects covariates (female educational attainment and contraceptive met need) and random intercepts for geographical regions. Projected TFRs were then computed for each calendar year as the sum of single-year ASFRs across age groups. The reference forecast is our estimate of the most likely fertility future given the model, past fertility, forecasts of covariates, and historical relationships between covariates and fertility. We additionally produced forecasts for multiple alternative scenarios in each location: the UN Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) for education is achieved by 2030; the contraceptive met need SDG is achieved by 2030; pro-natal policies are enacted to create supportive environments for those who give birth; and the previous three scenarios combined. Uncertainty from past data inputs and model estimation was propagated throughout analyses by taking 1000 draws for past and present fertility estimates and 500 draws for future forecasts from the estimated distribution for each metric, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) given as the 2·5 and 97·5 percentiles of the draws. To evaluate the forecasting performance of our model and others, we computed skill values-a metric assessing gain in forecasting accuracy-by comparing predicted versus observed ASFRs from the past 15 years (2007-21). A positive skill metric indicates that the model being evaluated performs better than the baseline model (here, a simplified model holding 2007 values constant in the future), and a negative metric indicates that the evaluated model performs worse than baseline. FINDINGS: During the period from 1950 to 2021, global TFR more than halved, from 4·84 (95% UI 4·63-5·06) to 2·23 (2·09-2·38). Global annual livebirths peaked in 2016 at 142 million (95% UI 137-147), declining to 129 million (121-138) in 2021. Fertility rates declined in all countries and territories since 1950, with TFR remaining above 2·1-canonically considered replacement-level fertility-in 94 (46·1%) countries and territories in 2021. This included 44 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, which was the super-region with the largest share of livebirths in 2021 (29·2% [28·7-29·6]). 47 countries and territories in which lowest estimated fertility between 1950 and 2021 was below replacement experienced one or more subsequent years with higher fertility; only three of these locations rebounded above replacement levels. Future fertility rates were projected to continue to decline worldwide, reaching a global TFR of 1·83 (1·59-2·08) in 2050 and 1·59 (1·25-1·96) in 2100 under the reference scenario. The number of countries and territories with fertility rates remaining above replacement was forecast to be 49 (24·0%) in 2050 and only six (2·9%) in 2100, with three of these six countries included in the 2021 World Bank-defined low-income group, all located in the GBD super-region of sub-Saharan Africa. The proportion of livebirths occurring in sub-Saharan Africa was forecast to increase to more than half of the world's livebirths in 2100, to 41·3% (39·6-43·1) in 2050 and 54·3% (47·1-59·5) in 2100. The share of livebirths was projected to decline between 2021 and 2100 in most of the six other super-regions-decreasing, for example, in south Asia from 24·8% (23·7-25·8) in 2021 to 16·7% (14·3-19·1) in 2050 and 7·1% (4·4-10·1) in 2100-but was forecast to increase modestly in the north Africa and Middle East and high-income super-regions. Forecast estimates for the alternative combined scenario suggest that meeting SDG targets for education and contraceptive met need, as well as implementing pro-natal policies, would result in global TFRs of 1·65 (1·40-1·92) in 2050 and 1·62 (1·35-1·95) in 2100. The forecasting skill metric values for the IHME model were positive across all age groups, indicating that the model is better than the constant prediction. INTERPRETATION: Fertility is declining globally, with rates in more than half of all countries and territories in 2021 below replacement level. Trends since 2000 show considerable heterogeneity in the steepness of declines, and only a small number of countries experienced even a slight fertility rebound after their lowest observed rate, with none reaching replacement level. Additionally, the distribution of livebirths across the globe is shifting, with a greater proportion occurring in the lowest-income countries. Future fertility rates will continue to decline worldwide and will remain low even under successful implementation of pro-natal policies. These changes will have far-reaching economic and societal consequences due to ageing populations and declining workforces in higher-income countries, combined with an increasing share of livebirths among the already poorest regions of the world. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Bhattacharjee, N. V., Schumacher, A. E., Aali, A., Abate, Y. H., Abbasgholizadeh, R., Abbasian, M., Abbasi‐Kangevari, M., Abbastabar, H., ElHafeez, S. A., Abd-Elsalam, S. M., Abdollahi, M. R., Abdollahifar, M.-A., Abdoun, M., Abdullahi, A., Abebe, M., Abebe, S. S., Abiodun, O. A., Abolhassani, H., Abolmaali, M., … Vollset, S. E. (2024). Global fertility in 204 countries and territories, 1950–2021, with forecasts to 2100: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. The Lancet, 403(10440), 2057–2099. https://doi.org/10.1016/s0140-6736(24)00550-6
Bhattacharjee, Natalia V, et al. "Global fertility in 204 countries and territories, 1950–2021, with forecasts to 2100: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021." The Lancet, vol. 403, no. 10440, 2024, pp. 2057–2099, https://doi.org/10.1016/s0140-6736(24)00550-6.
Bhattacharjee, Natalia V, Austin E Schumacher, Amirali Aali, Yohannes Habtegiorgis Abate, Rouzbeh Abbasgholizadeh, Mohammadreza Abbasian, Mohsen Abbasi‐Kangevari, et al. "Global fertility in 204 countries and territories, 1950–2021, with forecasts to 2100: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021." The Lancet 403, no. 10440 (2024): 2057–2099. https://doi.org/10.1016/s0140-6736(24)00550-6.
Bhattacharjee N. V., Schumacher A. E., Aali A. [и др.] Global fertility in 204 countries and territories, 1950–2021, with forecasts to 2100: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 // The Lancet. — 2024. — Vol. 403, № 10440. — P. 2057–2099. — URL: https://doi.org/10.1016/s0140-6736(24)00550-6
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Lotufo and Jailos Lubinda and Giancarlo Lucchetti and Alessandra Lugo and Raimundas Lunevičius and Hengliang Lv and Zheng Feei and Kelsey Lynn Maass and Monika Elżbieta Machoy and Áurea Madureira-Carvalho and Mohammed Magdy Abd El Razek and Azzam A. Maghazachi and Soleiman Mahjoub and Mansour Adam Mahmoud and Azeem Majeed and Jeadran Malagón-Rojas and Elaheh Malakan Rad and Kashish Malhotra and Ahmad Azam Malik and Iram Malik and Déborah Carvalho Malta and Abdullah Al Mamun and Yosef Manla and Yasaman Mansoori and Ali E. Mansour and Borhan Mansouri and Zeinab Mansouri and Mohammad Alì Mansournia and Joemer Calderon Maravilla and Mirko Marino and Abdoljalal Marjani and Gabriel Martinez and Ramón Martínez and Francisco Rogerlândio Martins‐Melo and Miquel Martorell and Sharmeen Maryam and Roy Rillera Marzo and Alireza Masoudi and Jishanth Mattumpuram and Richard J. Maude and Andrea Maugeri and Erin A May and Mahsa Mayeli and Maryam Mazaheri and John Joseph McGrath and Martin McKee and Anna Laura W McKowen and Susan A. McLaughlin and Steven McPhail and Rahul Mehra and Kamran Mehrabani-Zeinabad and Entezar Mehrabi Nasab and Tesfahun Mekene Meto and Max Alberto Mendez Mendez-Lopez and Walter Mendoza and Ritesh George Menezes and George A. Mensah and Alexios‐Fotios A. Mentis and Sultan Ayoub Meo and Mohsen Merati and Atte Meretoja and Tuomo J Meretoja and Abera M Mersha and Tomislav Meštrović and Pouya Metanat and Kukulege Chamila Dinushi Mettananda and Sachith Mettananda and Adquate Mhlanga and Laurette Mhlanga and Tianyue Mi and Tomasz Miazgowski and Georgia Micha and Irmina Maria Michałek and Ted R. Miller and Le Huu Nhat Minh and Mojgan Mirghafourvand and Erkin Mirsaidovich Mirrakhimov and Mizan Kiros Mirutse and Moonis Mirza and Roya Mirzaei and Ashim Mishra and Sanjeev Misra and Philip B Mitchell and Chaitanya Mittal and Babak Moazen and Abdalla Z. Mohamed and Ahmed Ismail Mohamed and Jama Mohamed and Mouhand Faisal Hamad Mohamed and Nouh Saad Mohamed and Sakineh Mohammad‐Alizadeh‐Charandabi and Soheil Mohammadi and Abdollah Mohammadian-Hafshejani and Mustapha Mohammed and Salahuddin Mohammed and Shafiu Mohammed and Ali H. Mokdad and Peyman Mokhtarzadehazar and Hossein Molavi Vardanjani and Sabrina Molinaro and Lorenzo Monasta and Mohammad Ali Moni and Maryam Moradi and Yousef Moradi and Paula Moraga and Rafael Silveira Moreira and Negar Morovatdar and Shane Douglas Morrison and Jakub Morze and Abbas Mosapour and Elias A. Mossialos and Rohith Motappa and Parsa Mousavi and Amin Mousavi Khaneghah and Christine Mpundu‐Kaambwa and Sumaira Mubarik and Lorenzo Muccioli and Francesk Mulita and Kavita Munjal and Efrén Murillo‐Zamora and Jonah Musa and Fungai Musaigwa and Ana-Maria Mușină and Sathish Muthu and Muthupandian Saravanan and Muhammad Muzaffar and Woojae Myung and Ahamarshan Jayaraman Nagarajan and Gabriele Nagel and Pirouz Naghavi and Ganesh R. Naik and Gurudatta Naik and Mukhammad David Naimzada and Firzan Nainu and Vinay B. Nangia and Sreenivas Narasimha Swamy and Bruno Ramos Nascimento and Gustavo G. Nascimento and Abdallah Y. Naser and Mohammad Javad Nasiri and Zuhair Saleh Natto and Javaid Nauman and Muhammad Naveed and Biswa Prakash Nayak and Vinod C Nayak and Rawlance Ndejjo and Sabina O. Nduaguba and Hadush Negash and Chernet Tafere Negesse and Ionuţ Negoi and Ruxandra Irina Negoi and Seyed Aria Nejadghaderi and Chakib Nejjari and Samata Nepal and Henok Biresaw Netsere and Georges Nguefack‐Tsague and Josephine W Ngunjiri and Dang H. Nguyen and Hau Thi Hien Nguyen and Phuong The Nguyen and QuynhAnh P Nguyen and Van Thanh Nguyen and Robina Khan Niazi and Yeshambel T. Nigatu and Τaxiarchis Κonstantinos Νikolouzakis and Ali Nikoobar and Amin Reza Nikpoor and Chukwudi A Nnaji and Lawrence Achilles Nnyanzi and Efaq Ali Noman and Shuhei Nomura and Mamoona Noreen and Nafise Noroozi and Chisom Adaobi Nri-Ezedi and Mengistu Handiso Nunemo and Virginia Núñez-Samudio and Dieta Nurrika and Jerry John Nutor and Bogdan Oancea and Kehinde O. Obamiro and Ismail Ayoade Odetokun and Nkechi Martina Odogwu and Martin James O'Donnell and Oluwakemi Ololade Odukoya and Ayodipupo Sikiru Oguntade and James Odhiambo Oguta and In‐Hwan Oh and Sylvester Reuben Okeke and Akinkunmi Paul Okekunle and Osaretin Christabel Okonji and Patrick Godwin Okwute and Andrew T Olagunju and Omotola O Olasupo and Matthew Idowu Olatubi and Gláucia Maria Moraes de Oliveira and Bolajoko Olubukunola Olusanya and Jacob Olusegun Olusanya and Gideon Olamilekan Oluwatunase and Hany A Omar and Goran Latif Omer and Obinna Emmanuel Onwujekwe and Michał Ordak and Orish Ebere Orisakwe and Verner Ndudiri Orish and Doris V Ortega-Altamirano and Alberto Ortiz and Esteban Ortiz‐Prado and Wael M S Osman and Uchechukwu Levi Osuagwu and Olayinka Osuolale and Adrian Oţoiu and Stanislav S Otstavnov and Amel Ouyahia and Guoqing Ouyang and Mayowa Ojo Owolabi and Yaz Ozten and Mahesh Padukudru P A and Mohammad‐Taha Pahlevan‐Fallahy and Feng Pan and Hai‐Feng Pan and Adrian Pană and Paramjot Panda and Songhomitra Panda‐Jonas and Helena Ullyartha Pangaribuan and Georgios D. 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Prada and Pranil Man Singh Pradhan and Manya Prasad and Akila Prashant and Bharathi M. Purohit and Jagadeesh Puvvula and Nameer Hashim Qasim and Ibrahim Qattea and R Deepthi and Mehrdad Rabiee Rad and Amir Radfar and Venkatraman Srinivasan Radhakrishnan and Pourya Raee and Hadi Raeisi Shahraki and Alireza Rafiei and Seyedeh Niloufar Rafiei Alavi and Cat Raggi and Pankaja Raghav Raghav and Fakher Rahim and Md Jillur Rahim and Md. Mosfequr Rahman and Mohammad Hifz Ur Rahman and Mosiur Rahman and Muhammad Aziz Rahman and Vahid Rahmanian and Masoud Rahmati and Niloufar Rahnavard and Pramila Rai and Diego Raimondo and Ali Rajabpour-Sanati and Prashant Rajput and Prasanna Ram and Shakthi Kumaran Ramasamy and Juwel Rana and Kritika Rana and Shailendra Singh Rana and Chhabi Lal Ranabhat and Nemanja Rančić and Amey Rane and Shubham Ranjan and Chythra Raghavendra Rao and Indu Ramachandra Rao and Deepthi Rapaka and Davide Rasella and Sina Rashedi and Vahid Rashedi and Mohammad‐Mahdi Rashidi and Azad Rasul and Zubair Ahmed Ratan and Giridhara R. Babu and Santosh Kumar Rauniyar and Nakul Ravikumar and David Laith Rawaf and Salman Rawaf and Reza Rawassizadeh and Bharat Rawlley and Murali Mohan Rama Krishna Reddy and Elrashdy M Moustafa Mohamed Redwan and Giuseppe Remuzzi and Bhageerathy Reshmi and Nazila Rezaei and Aida Rezaei Nejad and Mohsen Rezaeian and Abanoub Riad and Mavra A Riaz and Jennifer Rickard and Reza Rikhtegar and Hannah Elizabeth Robinson-Oden and Celia Fortuna Rodrigues and Jefferson Antonio Buendía and Ravi Rohilla and Debby Syahru Romadlon and Luca Ronfani and Himanshu Sekhar Rout and Bedanta Roy and Nitai Roy and Priyanka Roy and Enrico Rubagotti and Guilherme de Andrade Ruela and Susan F. Rumisha and Tilleye Runghien and S.N. Manjula and S N Chandan and Aly M A Saad and Zahra Saadatian and Maha Mohamed Saber-Ayad and Morteza SaberiKamarposhti and Siamak Sabour and Fatos E. Sada and Basema Ahmad Saddik and Bashdar Abuzed Sadee and Ehsan Sadeghi and Erfan Sadeghi and Mohammad Reza Saeb and Umar Saeed and Sher Zaman Safi and Dominic Sagoe and Manika Saha and Amirhossein Sahebkar and Soumya Swaroop Sahoo and Monalisha Sahu and Zahra Saif and Joseph W. Sakshaug and Payman Salamati and Afeez Abolarinwa Salami and Mohamed A. Saleh and Marwa Rashad Salem and Mohammed Z Y Salem and Sohrab Salimi and Sara Samadzadeh and Yoseph Leonardo Samodra and Vijaya Paul Samuel and Abdallah M Samy and Juan Ramon Sanabria and Nima Sanadgol and Francesca Sanna and Milena M Santric-Milicevic and Haaris Saqib and Sivan Yegnanarayana Iyer Saraswathy and Aswini Saravanan and Babak Saravi and Yaser Sarikhani and Tanmay Sarkar and Rodrigo Sarmiento-Suárez and Gargi Sachin Sarode and Sachin Chakradhar Sarode and Arash Sarveazad and Brijesh Sathian and Thirunavukkarasu Sathish and Anudeep Sathyanarayan and Abu Sayeed and Md Abu Sayeed and Nikolaos Scarmeas and Winfried Schlee and Art Schuermans and David C. Schwebel and Falk Schwendicke and Siddharthan Selvaraj and Pallav Sengupta and Subramanian Senthilkumaran and Sadaf Ghajarieh Sepanlou and Dragoş Şerban and Edson E Servan-Mori and Yashendra Sethi and SeyedAhmad SeyedAlinaghi and Seyed Arsalan Seyedi and Allen Seylani and Mahan Shafie and Jaffer Shah and Pritik A Shah and Ataollah Shahbandi and Samiah Shahid and Moyad Jamal Shahwan and Ahmed Ali Shaikh and Masood Ali Shaikh and Muhammad Aaqib Shamim and Mehran Shams-Beyranvand and Mohammad Anas Shamsi and Mohd Shanawaz and Abhishek Shankar and Mohammed Shannawaz and Medha Sharath and Sadaf Sharfaei and Amin Sharifan and Javad Sharifi‐Rad and Manoj Sharma and Rajesh Sharma and Ujjawal Sharma and Vishal Sharma and Rajesh Padumane Shastry and Amin Shavandi and David H Shaw and Amir Mehdi Shayan and Maryam Shayan and Amr Mohamed Elsayed Shehabeldine and Aziz Sheikh and Rahim Ali Sheikhi and Manjunath Shenoy and Pavanchand H Shetty and Peilin Shi and Desalegn Shiferaw and Mika Shigematsu and Rahman Shiri and Reza Shirkoohi and Aminu Shittu and Velizar Stefanov Shivarov and Farhad Shokraneh and Sina Shool and Seyed Afshin Shorofi and Kanwar Hamza Shuja and Kerem Shuval and Emmanuel Edwar Siddig and João Pedro Silva and Luís R. Silva and Soraia Silva and Biagio Simonetti and Anjali Singal and Abhinav Singh and Balbir Bagicha Singh and Ambrish Singh and Md Shahjahan Siraj and Georgia Smith and Bogdan Socea and Anton Sokhan and Ranjan Solanki and Shipra Solanki and Hamidreza Soleimani and Sameh S. M. Soliman and Yonatan Solomon and Yimeng Song and Reed J D Sorensen and Μichael Spartalis and Chandrashekhar T Sreeramareddy and Vijay Kumar Srivastava and Muhammad Haroon Stanikzai and В. И. Стародубов and Antonina Vladimirovna Starodubova and Simona Cătălina Ștefan and Paschalis Steiropoulos and Mark Andrew Stokes and Vetriselvan Subramaniyan and Muhammad Suleman and Rizwan Suliankatchi Abdulkader and Abida Sultana and Jing Sun and Chandan Kumar Swain and Bryan L. Sykes and Łukasz Szarpak and Mindy D Szeto and Miklós Szócska and Payam Tabaee Damavandi and Rafael Tabarés‐Seisdedos and Ozra Tabatabaei‐Malazy and Seyed‐Amir Tabatabaeizadeh and Shima Tabatabai and Karen M. Tabb and Mohammad Tabish and Moslem Taheri Soodejani and Jabeen Taiba and Ardeshir Tajbakhsh and Iman Mamdouh Talaat and Ashis Talukder and Mircea Ştefan Tampa and Jacques Lukenze Tamuzi and Ker‐Kan Tan and Haosu Tang and Derbie Alemu DA Tareke and Mengistie Kassahun Tariku and Vivian Y Tat and Seyed Mohammad Tavangar and Mojtaba Teimoori and Mohamad-Hani A. Temsah and Reem Mohamad Hani Temsah and Masayuki Teramoto and Dufera Rikitu Terefa and Riki Tesler and Enoch Teye‐Kwadjo and Ramna Thakur and Pugazhenthan Thangaraju and Kavumpurathu Raman Thankappan and Rekha Thapar and Samar Tharwat and Rasiah Thayakaran and Nihal Thomas and Aleš Tichopád and Jansje Henny Vera Ticoalu and Tenaw Yimer Tiruye and Mariya Vladimirovna Titova and Marcello A. Tonelli and Marcos Roberto Tovani‐Palone and Eugenio Traini and Jasmine Thuy Tran and Nghia Minh Tran and Indang Trihandini and Samuel Joseph Tromans and Thien Tan Tri Tai Truyen and Aristidis Michael Tsatsakis and Evangelia Eirini Tsermpini and Munkhtuya Tumurkhuu and Stefanos Tyrovolas and Sayed Mohammad Nazim Uddin and Aniefiok John Udoakang and Arit Udoh and Atta Ullah and Saeed Mahmud Ullah and Sana Ullah and Srikanth Umakanthan and Chukwuma David Umeokonkwo and Brigid Unim and Bhaskaran Unnikrishnan and Era Upadhyay and Jibrin Sammani Usman and Marco Vacante and Seyed Mohammad Vahabi and Asokan Govindaraj Vaithinathan and Rohollah Valizadeh and Jef Van den Eynde and Elena A. Varavikova and Orsolya Varga and Priya Vart and Shoban Babu Varthya and Tommi Juhani Vasankari and Balachandar Vellingiri and Deneshkumar Venugopal and Nicholas Alexander Verghese and Madhur Verma and Massimiliano Veroux and Georgios‐Ioannis Verras and Dominique Vervoort and Jorge Hugo Villafañe and Manish Vinayak and Francesco Saverio Violante and Mukesh Vishwakarma and Sergey Konstantinovitch Vladimirov and Vasily Vlassov and Bay Vo and Simona Ruxandra Volovăț and Theo Vos and Isidora S Vujcic and Hatem A Wafa and Yasir Waheed and Elias Bekele Wakwoya and Cong Wang and Denny Wang and Fang Wang and Shu Wang and Yanzhong Wang and Yuan‐Pang Wang and Paul Ward and Emebet Gashaw Wassie and Stefanie Watson and Marcia R. Weaver and Kosala Weerakoon and Daniel J. Weiss and Katherine M Wells and Yi Feng Wen and Ronny Westerman and Taweewat Wiangkham and Dakshitha Praneeth Wickramasinghe and Nuwan Darshana Wickramasinghe and Peter Willeit and Yohannes Addisu Wondimagegne and Felicia Wu and Juan Xia and Hong Xiao and Gelin Xu and Suowen Xu and Xiaoyue Xu and Ali Yadollahpour and Shirin Yaghoobpoor and Tina Yaghoobpour and Sajad Yaghoubi and Zwanden Sule Yahaya and Danting Yang and Lin Yang and Yuichiro Yano and Habib Yaribeygi and Pengpeng Ye and Renjulal Yesodharan and Subah Abderehim Yesuf and Saber Yezli and Amanuel Yigezu and PAUL S. F. YIP and Dong Keon Yon and Naohiro Yonemoto and Yuyi You and Mustafa Z Younis and Zabihollah Yousefi and Chuanhua Yu and Yong Yu and Chun-Wei Yuan and Nima Zafari and Fathiah Zakham and Nazar Zaki and Giulia Zamagni and Milad Zandi and Ghazal G Z Zandieh and Moein Zangiabadian and Михаил Сергеевич Застрожин and Haijun Zhang and Meixin Zhang and Yunquan Zhang and Chenwen Zhong and Juexiao Zhou and Bin Zhu and Lei Zhu and Magdalena Zielińska and Zhiyong Zou and Samer H. Zyoud and Christopher J L Murray and Amanda Elizabeth Smith and Stein Emil Vollset},
journal = {The Lancet},
year = {2024},
volume = {403},
number = {10440},
pages = {2057--2099},
doi = {10.1016/s0140-6736(24)00550-6},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/s0140-6736(24)00550-6}
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AU - Bayati, Mohsen AU - Begum, Tahmina AU - Behboudi, Emad AU - Behnoush, Amir Hossein AU - Beiranvand, Maryam AU - Ramírez, Diana Fernanda Bejarano AU - Bekele, Alehegn AU - Belay, Sefealem Assefa AU - Belgaumi, Uzma Iqbal AU - Bell, Michelle Lee AU - Bello, Olorunjuwon Omolaja AU - Beloukas, Apostolos I. AU - Benseñor, Isabela M. AU - Berezvai, Zombor AU - Berhie, Alemshet Yirga AU - Bermudez, Amiel Nazer C AU - Bettencourt, Paulo J. G. AU - Bhagavathula, Akshaya Srikanth AU - Bhardwaj, Nikha AU - Bhardwaj, Pankaj AU - Bhardwaj, Prarthna V AU - Bhaskar, Sonu M. M. AU - Bhat, Vivek AU - Bhatti, Gurjit Kaur AU - Bhatti, Jasvinder Singh AU - Bhatti, Manpreet S Singh AU - Bhatti, Rajbir AU - Biondi, Antonio AU - Bisignano, Catherine AU - Biswas, Atanu AU - Biswas, Raaj Kishore AU - Bitra, Veera Raghavulu AU - Bjørge, Tone AU - Bliss, Elye AU - Boachie, Micheal Kofi AU - Bobirca, Anca Vasilica AU - Bodolica, Virginia AU - Bodunrin, Aadam Olalekan AU - Bogale, Eyob Ketema AU - Bogale, Kassawmar Angaw AU - Hashemi, Milad Bonakdar AU - Başara, Berrak Bora AU - Bouaoud, Souad AU - Braithwaite, Dejana AU - Brauer, Michael D AU - Breitborde, Nicholas J. K. AU - Bryazka, Dana AU - Bulamu, Norma B. AU - Buonsenso, Danilo AU - Burkart, Katrin Gabriele AU - Burns, Richard Andrew AU - Bustanji, Yasser Khalil AU - Butt, Nadeem Shafique AU - Butt, Zahid A AU - Santos, Florentino Luciano Caetano dos AU - Călina, Daniela Cornelia AU - Campos‐Nonato, Ismael AU - Cao, Fan AU - Cao, Shujin AU - Capodici, Angelo AU - Carreras, Giulia AU - Carugno, Andrea AU - Castañeda-Orjuela, Carlos Andrés AU - Castelpietra, Giulio AU - Cattaruzza, Maria Sofia AU - Caye, Arthur AU - Cegolon, Luca AU - Cembranel, Francieli AU - Cerin, Ester AU - Chadwick, Joshua AU - Chahine, Yaacoub AU - Chakraborty, Chiranjib AU - Chalek, Julian AU - Chan, Jeffrey Shi Kai AU - Charalampous, Periklis AU - Chattu, Vijay Kumar AU - Chaturvedi, Sarika AU - Chavula, Malizgani Paul AU - Chen, An‐Tian AU - Chen, Haowei AU - Chen, Simiao AU - Chi, Gerald AU - Chichagi, Fatemeh AU - Chien, Ju‐Huei AU - Ching, Patrick R AU - Cho, William C S AU - Choi, Sungchul AU - Chong, Bryan AU - Chopra, Hitesh AU - Choudhari, Sonali Gajanan AU - Christopher, Devasahayam Jesudas AU - Chu, Dinh‐Toi AU - Chukwu, Isaac Sunday AU - Chung, Eric AU - Chung, Sheng‐Chia AU - Cindi, Zinhle AU - Cioffi, Iolanda AU - Ciuffreda, Raffaela AU - Claro, Rafael Moreira AU - Coberly, Kaleb AU - Columbus, Alyssa AU - Comfort, Haley AU - Conde, João AU - Criqui, Michael H. AU - Martins, Natália Alves AU - Cuadra-Hernández, Silvia Magali AU - Dadana, Sriharsha AU - Dadras, Omid AU - Dahiru, Tukur AU - Dai, Zhaoli AU - Dalton, Bronte E AU - Damiani, Giovanni Battista AU - Darwesh, Aso Mohammad AU - Das, Jai K AU - Das, Saswati AU - Dashti, Mohsen AU - Dastiridou, Anna AU - Dávila-Cervantes, Claudio Alberto AU - Davletov, Kairat AU - Debele, Aklilu Tamire AU - Debopadhaya, Shayom AU - Delavari, Somayeh AU - Delgado‐Enciso, Iván AU - Demeke, Dessalegn AU - Demessa, Berecha Hundessa AU - Deng, Xin AU - Denova‐Gutiérrez, Edgar AU - Deribe, Kebede AU - Dervenis, Nikolaos AU - Desai, Hardik Dineshbhai AU - Desai, Rupak AU - Devanbu, Vinoth Gnana Chellaiyan AU - Dhali, Arkadeep AU - Dhama, Kuldeep AU - Dhimal, Meghnath AU - Dhulipala, Vishal R. AU - Silva, Diana Dias da AU - Díaz, Daniel AU - Diaz, Michael Joseph AU - Dima, Adriana AU - Ding, Delaney D AU - Dirac, M Ashworth AU - Do, Thanh Chi AU - Do, Thao Huynh Phuong AU - Prado, Camila Bruneli do AU - Dohare, Sushil AU - Dong, Wanyue AU - D’Oria, Mario AU - Santos, Wendel Mombaque dos AU - Doshmangir, Leila AU - Dowou, Robert Kokou AU - Dsouza, Ashel Chelsea AU - Dsouza, Haneil Larson AU - Dsouza, Viola Savy AU - Dube, John AU - Duprey, Joe AU - Durães, André Rodrigues AU - Duraisamy, Senbagam AU - Durojaiye, Oyewole Christopher AU - Dutta, Sulagna AU - Dwyer‐Lindgren, Laura AU - Dzianach, Paulina Agnieszka AU - Dziedzic, Arkadiusz Marian AU - Ebrahimi, Alireza AU - Edinur, Hisham Atan AU - Edvardsson, Kristina AU - Efendi, Ferry AU - Eikemo, Terje Andreas AU - Ekholuenetale, Michael AU - Tantawi, Maha El AU - Elemam, Noha Mousaad AU - ElGohary, Ghada Metwally Tawfik AU - Elhadi, Muhammed AU - Elilo, Legesse Tesfaye AU - Elmeligy, Omar Abdelsadek Abdou AU - Elmonem, Mohamed A. AU - Elshaer, Mohammed Youssef Saad AU - Elsohaby, Ibrahim AU - Zeydi, Amir Emami AU - Bain, Luchuo Engelbert AU - Eskandarieh, Sharareh AU - Esposito, Francesco AU - Estep, Kara AU - Etaee, Farshid AU - Fabin, Natalia AU - Fagbamigbe, Adeniyi Francis AU - Fahimi, Saman AU - Fakhri‐Demeshghieh, Aliasghar AU - Falzone, Luca AU - Faramarzi, Ali AU - Faris, MoezAlIslam E. AU - Farmer, Sam AU - Faro, André AU - Fasanmi, Abidemi Omolara AU - Fatehizadeh, Ali AU - Fauk, Nelsensius Klau AU - Fazeli, Pooria AU - Feigin, Valery L. AU - Fereshtehnejad, Seyed‐Mohammad AU - Feroze, Abdullah Hamid AU - Ferrara, Pietro AU - Ferreira, Nuno Bravo AU - Fetensa, Getahun AU - Filip, Irina AU - Fischer, Florian AU - Flavel, Joanne AU - Foigt, Nataliya A AU - Foláyan, Morẹ́nikẹ́ Oluwátóyìn AU - Fomenkov, Artem Alekseevich AU - Foroutan, Behzad AU - Foschi, Matteo AU - Fowobaje, Kayode Raphael AU - Francis, Kate Louise AU - Freitas, Alberto AU - Fukumoto, Takeshi AU - Fuller, John E AU - Fux, Blima AU - Gaál, Péter AU - Gadanya, Muktar A AU - Gaidhane, Abhay Motiramji AU - Galali, Yaseen AU - Gallus, Silvano AU - Gandhi, Aravind P. AU - Ganesan, Balasankar AU - Ganiyani, Mohammad Arfat AU - Garcia-Gordillo, M.A. AU - Garg, Naval AU - Gautam, Rupesh Kumar AU - Gazzelloni, Federica AU - Gbadamosi, Semiu Olatunde AU - Gebregergis, Miglas Welay AU - Gebrehiwot, Mesfin AU - Gebremariam, Tesfay Brhane AU - Gebremariam, Tesfay Brhane AU - Gebremeskel, Teferi Gebru AU - Geda, Yohannes Fikadu AU - Georgescu, Simona Roxana AU - Gerema, Urge AU - Geremew, Habtamu AU - Getachew, Motuma Erena AU - Gething, Peter W. AU - Ghasemi, Mohammad‐Reza AU - Dabaghi, Ghazal Ghasempour AU - Ghasemzadeh, Afsaneh AU - Ghassemi, Fariba AU - Ghazy, Ramy Mohamed AU - Ghimire, Sailaja AU - Gholamian, Asadollah AU - Gholamrezanezhad, Ali AU - Ghorbani, Mahsa AU - Ghoshal, Aloke Gopal AU - Ghuge, Arun Digambarrao AU - Gil, Artyom Urievich AU - Gill, Tiffany K. 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AU - Hameed, Sajid AU - Hamidi, Samer AU - Han, Qiuxia AU - Handal, Alexis Jeannine AU - Hankey, Graeme J. AU - Haque, Md. Nuruzzaman AU - Haro, Josep Maria AU - Hasaballah, Ahmed I AU - Hasan, Ikramul AU - Hasan, Mohammad Jahid AU - Hasan, S M Mahmudul AU - Hasani, Hamidreza AU - Hasnain, Md Saquib AU - Hassan, Amr AU - Hassan, Ikrama AU - Hassanipour, Soheil AU - Hassankhani, Hadi AU - Hay, Simon Iain AU - Hébert, Jeffrey J. AU - Hegazi, Omar E AU - Heidari, Mohammad AU - Helfer, Bartosz AU - Hemmati, Mehdi AU - Herrera-Serna, Brenda Yuliana AU - Herţeliu, Claudiu AU - Hessami, Kamran AU - Hezam, Kamal AU - Hiraike, Yuta AU - Hoan, Nguyen Quoc AU - Holla, Ramesh AU - Horita, Nobuyuki AU - Hossain, Md Mahbub AU - Hossain, Mohammad Bellal AU - Hosseinzadeh, Hassan AU - Hosseinzadeh, Mehdi AU - Hostiuc, Mihaela AU - Hostiuc, Sorin AU - Hsaïri, Mohamed AU - Hsieh, Vivian Chia‐Rong AU - Hu, Chengxi AU - Huang, Junjie AU - Huda, M. Mamun AU - Humayun, Ayesha AU - Hussain, Javid AU - Hussein, Nawfal Rasheed AU - Huynh, Hong-Han AU - Hwang, Bing‐Fang AU - Ibitoye, Segun Emmanuel AU - Iftikhar, Pulwasha Maria AU - Ilesanmi, Olayinka Stephen AU - Ilić, Irena AU - Ilić, Milena AU - Immurana, Mustapha AU - Inbaraj, Leeberk Raja AU - Iqbal, Afrin AU - Islam, Md. Rabiul AU - Ismail, Nahlah Elkudssiah AU - Iso, Hiroyasu AU - Isola, Gaetano AU - Iwagami, Masao AU - Iyer, Mahalaxmi AU - J, Linda Merin AU - Jaafari, Jalil AU - Jacob, Louis AU - Jadidi‐Niaragh, Farhad AU - Jaggi, Khushleen AU - Jahankhani, Kasra AU - Jahanmehr, Nader AU - Jahrami, Haitham AU - Jain, Akhil AU - Jain, Nityanand AU - Jairoun, Ammar Abdulrahman AU - Jakovljević, Mihajlo AU - Jamshidi, Elham AU - Javadov, Sabzali AU - Javaheri, Tahereh AU - Jayapal, Sathish Kumar AU - Jayaram, Shubha AU - Jee, Sun Ha AU - Jeganathan, Jayakumar AU - Jha, Anil Kumar AU - Jha, Ravi Prakash AU - Jiang, Heng AU - Jokar, Mohammad AU - Jonas, Jost B AU - Joó, Tamás AU - Joseph, Nitin AU - Joshua, Charity Ehimwenma AU - Joukar, Farahnaz AU - Jozwiak, Jacek Jerzy AU - Jürisson, Mikk AU - Vaishali, K AU - Kaambwa, Billingsley AU - Kabir, Abdulkareem AU - Kabir, Ali AU - Kabir, Hannaneh AU - Kabir, Zubair AU - Kalani, Rizwan AU - Kalankesh, Leila Ranandeh AU - Kaliyadan, Feroze AU - Kalra, Sanjay AU - Kamath, Rajesh AU - Kamath, Sagarika AU - Kanchan, Tanuj AU - Kanmiki, Edmund Wedam AU - Kanmodi, Kehinde Kazeem AU - S, Suthanthira Kannan AU - Kansal, Sushil Kumar AU - Kantar, Rami S. AU - Kapoor, Neeti AU - Karajizadeh, Mehrdad AU - Karami, Manoochehr AU - Karaye, Ibraheem M. AU - Kashoo, Faizan Zaffar AU - Kasraei, Hengameh AU - Kassebaum, Nicholas J AU - Kassel, Molly B AU - Kauppila, Joonas H. AU - Kazemi, Foad AU - Kazeminia, Sara AU - Kempen, John H. AU - Kendal, Evie Shoshannah AU - Keshtkar, Kamyab AU - Keykhaei, Mohammad AU - Khajuria, Himanshu AU - Khalaji, Amirmohammad AU - Khalid, Nauman AU - Khalil, Anees Ahmed AU - Khalilian, Alireza AU - Khamesipour, Faham AU - Khan, Ajmal AU - Khan, Asaduzzaman AU - Khan, Ikramullah AU - Khan, Md Nuruzzaman AU - Khan, Maseer AU - Khan, Mohammad Jobair AU - Khan, Moien AB AU - Khang, Young-Ho AU - Khanmohammadi, Shaghayegh AU - Khatab, Khaled AU - Khavandegar, Armin AU - Kashani, Hamid Reza Khayat AU - Khidri, Feriha Fatima AU - Khormali, Moein AU - Khosravi, Mohammad Ali AU - Khosrowjerdi, Mahmood AU - Kidane, Wondwosen Teklesilasie AU - Kifle, Zemene Demelash AU - Kim, Julie Sojin AU - Kim, Min Seo AU - Kimokoti, Ruth W AU - Kinzel, Kasey E AU - Kiross, Girmay Tsegay AU - Kısa, Adnan AU - Kısa, Sezer AU - Kolahi, Ali‐Asghar AU - Kompani, Farzad AU - Koren, Gerbrand AU - Korzh, Oleksii AU - Kosen, Soewarta AU - Laxminarayana, Sindhura Lakshmi Koulmane AU - Krishan, Kewal AU - Krishna, Varun AU - Krishnamoorthy, Vijay K. AU - Defo, Barthélémy Kuate AU - Kubeisy, Connor M AU - Biçer, Burcu Küçük AU - Kuddus, Md Abdul AU - Kuddus, Mohammed AU - Kuitunen, Ilari AU - Kulimbet, Mukhtar AU - Kumar, Harish AU - Kundu, Satyajit AU - Kunle, Kunle Rotimi AU - Kurmi, Om AU - Kusnali, Asep AU - Kusuma, Dian Palupi AU - Kyei, Evans Frimpong AU - Kyriopoulos, Ilias AU - Vecchia, Carlo La AU - Lacey, Ben AU - Ladan, Muhammad Awwal AU - Laflamme, Lucie AU - Lahariya, Chandrakant AU - Lai, Daphne Teck Ching AU - Lal, Dharmesh Kumar AU - Lalloo, Ratilal AU - Lám, Judit AU - Lamnisos, Demetris AU - Landires, Iván AU - Lanfranchi, Francesco AU - Langguth, Berthold AU - Laplante-Lévesque, Ariane AU - Larson, Heidi Jane AU - Larsson, Anders AU - Lasrado, Savita AU - Latief, Kamaluddin AU - Latifinaibin, Kaveh AU - Le, Long Khanh‐Dao AU - Le, Nhi Huu Hanh AU - Le, Trang Diep Thanh AU - Ledda, Caterina AU - Lee, Munjae AU - Lee, Paul Hong AU - Lee, Seung Won AU - Lee, Yo Han AU - Lema, Gebretsadik Kiros AU - Leong, Elvynna AU - Lerango, Temesgen Leka AU - Li, An AU - Li, Ming‐Chieh AU - Li, Shanshan AU - Li, Wei AU - Li, Xiaopan AU - Ligade, Virendra S AU - Lim, Stephen S AU - Lin, Ro‐Ting AU - Lindstedt, Paulina A AU - Listl, Stefan AU - Liu, Gang AU - Liu, Jue AU - Liu, Xiaofeng AU - Liu, Xuefeng AU - Liu, Yuewei AU - Llanaj, Erand AU - López‐Bueno, Rubén AU - Дмитриевич, Лопухов Платон AU - Lorenzovici, László AU - Lotufo, Paulo A. AU - Lubinda, Jailos AU - Lucchetti, Giancarlo AU - Lugo, Alessandra AU - Lunevičius, Raimundas AU - Lv, Hengliang AU - Feei, Zheng AU - Maass, Kelsey Lynn AU - Machoy, Monika Elżbieta AU - Madureira-Carvalho, Áurea AU - Razek, Mohammed Magdy Abd El AU - Maghazachi, Azzam A. AU - Mahjoub, Soleiman AU - Mahmoud, Mansour Adam AU - Majeed, Azeem AU - Malagón-Rojas, Jeadran AU - Rad, Elaheh Malakan AU - Malhotra, Kashish AU - Malik, Ahmad Azam AU - Malik, Iram AU - Malta, Déborah Carvalho AU - Mamun, Abdullah Al AU - Manla, Yosef AU - Mansoori, Yasaman AU - Mansour, Ali E. AU - Mansouri, Borhan AU - Mansouri, Zeinab AU - Mansournia, Mohammad Alì AU - Maravilla, Joemer Calderon AU - Marino, Mirko AU - Marjani, Abdoljalal AU - Martinez, Gabriel AU - Martínez, Ramón AU - Martins‐Melo, Francisco Rogerlândio AU - Martorell, Miquel AU - Maryam, Sharmeen AU - Marzo, Roy Rillera AU - Masoudi, Alireza AU - Mattumpuram, Jishanth AU - Maude, Richard J. 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