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Stein Emil Vollset, Hazim Ababneh, Yohannes Habtegiorgis Abate, Cristiana Abbafati, Rouzbeh Abbasgholizadeh, Mohammadreza Abbasian, Hedayat Abbastabar, Abdallah H A Abd Al Magied, Samar Abd ElHafeez, Atef F. I. Abdelkader and 1410 more
BACKGROUND: Future trends in disease burden and drivers of health are of great interest to policy makers and the public at large. This information can be used for policy and long-term health investment, planning, and prioritisation. We have expanded and improved upon previous forecasts produced as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) and provide a reference forecast (the most likely future), and alternative scenarios assessing disease burden trajectories if selected sets of risk factors were eliminated from current levels by 2050. METHODS: Using forecasts of major drivers of health such as the Socio-demographic Index (SDI; a composite measure of lag-distributed income per capita, mean years of education, and total fertility under 25 years of age) and the full set of risk factor exposures captured by GBD, we provide cause-specific forecasts of mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) by age and sex from 2022 to 2050 for 204 countries and territories, 21 GBD regions, seven super-regions, and the world. All analyses were done at the cause-specific level so that only risk factors deemed causal by the GBD comparative risk assessment influenced future trajectories of mortality for each disease. Cause-specific mortality was modelled using mixed-effects models with SDI and time as the main covariates, and the combined impact of causal risk factors as an offset in the model. At the all-cause mortality level, we captured unexplained variation by modelling residuals with an autoregressive integrated moving average model with drift attenuation. These all-cause forecasts constrained the cause-specific forecasts at successively deeper levels of the GBD cause hierarchy using cascading mortality models, thus ensuring a robust estimate of cause-specific mortality. For non-fatal measures (eg, low back pain), incidence and prevalence were forecasted from mixed-effects models with SDI as the main covariate, and YLDs were computed from the resulting prevalence forecasts and average disability weights from GBD. Alternative future scenarios were constructed by replacing appropriate reference trajectories for risk factors with hypothetical trajectories of gradual elimination of risk factor exposure from current levels to 2050. The scenarios were constructed from various sets of risk factors: environmental risks (Safer Environment scenario), risks associated with communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases (CMNNs; Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination scenario), risks associated with major non-communicable diseases (NCDs; Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario), and the combined effects of these three scenarios. Using the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways climate scenarios SSP2-4.5 as reference and SSP1-1.9 as an optimistic alternative in the Safer Environment scenario, we accounted for climate change impact on health by using the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change temperature forecasts and published trajectories of ambient air pollution for the same two scenarios. Life expectancy and healthy life expectancy were computed using standard methods. The forecasting framework includes computing the age-sex-specific future population for each location and separately for each scenario. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for each individual future estimate were derived from the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of distributions generated from propagating 500 draws through the multistage computational pipeline. FINDINGS: In the reference scenario forecast, global and super-regional life expectancy increased from 2022 to 2050, but improvement was at a slower pace than in the three decades preceding the COVID-19 pandemic (beginning in 2020). Gains in future life expectancy were forecasted to be greatest in super-regions with comparatively low life expectancies (such as sub-Saharan Africa) compared with super-regions with higher life expectancies (such as the high-income super-region), leading to a trend towards convergence in life expectancy across locations between now and 2050. At the super-region level, forecasted healthy life expectancy patterns were similar to those of life expectancies. Forecasts for the reference scenario found that health will improve in the coming decades, with all-cause age-standardised DALY rates decreasing in every GBD super-region. The total DALY burden measured in counts, however, will increase in every super-region, largely a function of population ageing and growth. We also forecasted that both DALY counts and age-standardised DALY rates will continue to shift from CMNNs to NCDs, with the most pronounced shifts occurring in sub-Saharan Africa (60·1% [95% UI 56·8-63·1] of DALYs were from CMNNs in 2022 compared with 35·8% [31·0-45·0] in 2050) and south Asia (31·7% [29·2-34·1] to 15·5% [13·7-17·5]). This shift is reflected in the leading global causes of DALYs, with the top four causes in 2050 being ischaemic heart disease, stroke, diabetes, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, compared with 2022, with ischaemic heart disease, neonatal disorders, stroke, and lower respiratory infections at the top. The global proportion of DALYs due to YLDs likewise increased from 33·8% (27·4-40·3) to 41·1% (33·9-48·1) from 2022 to 2050, demonstrating an important shift in overall disease burden towards morbidity and away from premature death. The largest shift of this kind was forecasted for sub-Saharan Africa, from 20·1% (15·6-25·3) of DALYs due to YLDs in 2022 to 35·6% (26·5-43·0) in 2050. In the assessment of alternative future scenarios, the combined effects of the scenarios (Safer Environment, Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination, and Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenarios) demonstrated an important decrease in the global burden of DALYs in 2050 of 15·4% (13·5-17·5) compared with the reference scenario, with decreases across super-regions ranging from 10·4% (9·7-11·3) in the high-income super-region to 23·9% (20·7-27·3) in north Africa and the Middle East. The Safer Environment scenario had its largest decrease in sub-Saharan Africa (5·2% [3·5-6·8]), the Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario in north Africa and the Middle East (23·2% [20·2-26·5]), and the Improved Nutrition and Vaccination scenario in sub-Saharan Africa (2·0% [-0·6 to 3·6]). INTERPRETATION: Globally, life expectancy and age-standardised disease burden were forecasted to improve between 2022 and 2050, with the majority of the burden continuing to shift from CMNNs to NCDs. That said, continued progress on reducing the CMNN disease burden will be dependent on maintaining investment in and policy emphasis on CMNN disease prevention and treatment. Mostly due to growth and ageing of populations, the number of deaths and DALYs due to all causes combined will generally increase. By constructing alternative future scenarios wherein certain risk exposures are eliminated by 2050, we have shown that opportunities exist to substantially improve health outcomes in the future through concerted efforts to prevent exposure to well established risk factors and to expand access to key health interventions. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Vollset, S. E., Ababneh, H., Abate, Y. H., Abbafati, C., Abbasgholizadeh, R., Abbasian, M., Abbastabar, H., Magied, A. H. A. A. A., ElHafeez, S. A., Abdelkader, A. F. I., Abdelmasseh, M., Abd-Elsalam, S. M., Abdi, P., Abdollahi, M. R., Abdoun, M., Abdullahi, A., Abebe, M., Abiodun, O. A., Aboagye, R. G., … Murray, C. J. L. (2024). Burden of disease scenarios for 204 countries and territories, 2022–2050: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. The Lancet, 403(10440), 2204–2256. https://doi.org/10.1016/s0140-6736(24)00685-8
Vollset, Stein Emil, et al. "Burden of disease scenarios for 204 countries and territories, 2022–2050: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021." The Lancet, vol. 403, no. 10440, 2024, pp. 2204–2256, https://doi.org/10.1016/s0140-6736(24)00685-8.
Vollset, Stein Emil, Hazim Ababneh, Yohannes Habtegiorgis Abate, Cristiana Abbafati, Rouzbeh Abbasgholizadeh, Mohammadreza Abbasian, Hedayat Abbastabar, et al. "Burden of disease scenarios for 204 countries and territories, 2022–2050: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021." The Lancet 403, no. 10440 (2024): 2204–2256. https://doi.org/10.1016/s0140-6736(24)00685-8.
Vollset S. E., Ababneh H., Abate Y. H. [и др.] Burden of disease scenarios for 204 countries and territories, 2022–2050: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 // The Lancet. — 2024. — Vol. 403, № 10440. — P. 2204–2256. — URL: https://doi.org/10.1016/s0140-6736(24)00685-8
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Lawlor and Huu‐Hoai Le and Long Khanh‐Dao Le and Nhi Huu Hanh Le and Thao Thi Thu Le and Trang Diep Thanh Le and Janet L Leasher and Doo Woong Lee and Munjae Lee and Paul Hong Lee and Sang-woong Lee and Seung Won Lee and Shaun Wen Huey Lee and Yo Han Lee and James Leigh and Elvynna Leong and Ming‐Chieh Li and Massimo Libra and Virendra S Ligade and Lee‐Ling Lim and Stephen S Lim and Liknaw Workie Limenh and Daniel P. Lindholm and Paulina A Lindstedt and Stefan Listl and Gang Liu and Shiwei Liu and Shuke Liu and Xiaofeng Liu and Xuefeng Liu and Erand Llanaj and Rubén López‐Bueno and José Francisco López‐Gil and Arianna Maever Loreche and Paulo A. Lotufo and Rafael Lozano and Jailos Lubinda and Giancarlo Lucchetti and Lisha Luo and Jay B. Lusk and Lei Lv and Hawraz Ibrahim M. Amin and Zheng Feei and Kelsey Lynn Maass and Nikolaos Machairas and Monika Elżbieta Machoy and Áurea Madureira-Carvalho and Hassan Magdy Abd El Razek and Azzam A. Maghazachi and D. Prasad and Mehrdad Mahalleh and Phetole Walter Mahasha and Mansour Adam Mahmoud and Elham Mahmoudi and Golnaz Mahmoudvand and Maureen Makama and Elaheh Malakan Rad and Kashish Malhotra and Ahmad Azam Malik and Déborah Carvalho Malta and Yosef Manla and Ali E. Mansour and Mohammad Hadi Mansouri and Pejman Mansouri and Vahid Mansouri and Marjan Mansourian and Mohammad Alì Mansournia and Bishnu Prasad Marasini and Hamid Reza Marateb and Joemer Calderon Maravilla and Parham Mardi and Abdoljalal Marjani and Hamed Markazi Moghadam and Carlos Alberto Marrugo-Arnedo and Gabriel Martínez and Ramón Martínez and Francisco Rogerlândio Martins‐Melo and Miquel Martorell and Wolfgang Marx and Roy Rillera Marzo and Sahar Masoudi and Yasith Mathangasinghe and Alexander G. Mathioudakis and Medha Mathur and Navgeet Mathur and Neeta Mathur and Fernanda Penido Matozinhos and Jishanth Mattumpuram and Richard J. Maude and Andrea Maugeri and Mahsa Mayeli and Mohsen Mazidi and Antonio Mazzotti and John Joseph McGrath and Martin McKee and Anna Laura W McKowen and Michael A McPhail and Steven McPhail and Asim Mehmood and Kamran Mehrabani-Zeinabad and Sepideh Mehravar and Tesfahun Mekene Meto and Endalkachew Belayneh Melese and Max Alberto Mendez Mendez-Lopez and Walter Mendoza and Ritesh George Menezes and George A. Mensah and Laverne G Mensah and Alexios‐Fotios A. Mentis and Sultan Ayoub Meo and Atte Meretoja and Tuomo J Meretoja and Abera M Mersha and Tomislav Meštrović and Kukulege Chamila Dinushi Mettananda and Sachith Mettananda and Adquate Mhlanga and Laurette Mhlanga and Tomasz Miazgowski and Irmina Maria Michałek and Ana Carolina Micheletti Gomide Nogueira de Sá and Ted R. Miller and Le Huu Nhat Minh and Alireza Mirahmadi and Antonio Mirijello and Erkin Mirsaidovich Mirrakhimov and Roya Mirzaei and Philip Bowden Mitchell and Chaitanya Mittal and Madeline E Moberg and Atousa Moghadam Fard and Seyedehfatemeh Mohajelin and Ashraf Mohamadkhani and Ahmed Ismail Mohamed and Jama Mohamed and Mouhand Faisal Hamad Mohamed and Nouh Saad Mohamed and Ameen Mosa Mohammad and Soheil Mohammadi and Hussen Mohammed and Mustapha Mohammed and Shafiu Mohammed and Ali H. Mokdad and Mariam Molokhia and Shaher Momani and Sara Momtazmanesh and Lorenzo Monasta and Stefania Mondello and Mohammad Ali Moni and Fateme Montazeri and AmirAli Moodi Ghalibaf and Maryam Moradi and Yousef Moradi and Paula Moraga and Lídia Morawska and Rafael Silveira Moreira and Negar Morovatdar and Shane Douglas Morrison and Abbas Mosapour and Jonathan F Mosser and Elias A. Mossialos and Rohith Motappa and Vincent Mougin and Parsa Mousavi and Matías Mrejen and Sumaira Mubarik and Ulrich Otto Mueller and Francesk Mulita and Kavita Munjal and Efrén Murillo‐Zamora and Khaled M. Musallam and Ana-Maria Mușină and Ghulam Mustafa and Woojae Myung and Ayoub Nafei and Ahamarshan Jayaraman Nagarajan and Pirouz Naghavi and Ganesh R. Naik and Gurudatta Naik and Firzan Nainu and Soroush Najdaghi and Noureddin Nakhostin Ansari and Vinay B. Nangia and Sreenivas Narasimha Swamy and Shumaila Nargus and Delaram Narimani Davani and Bruno Ramos Nascimento and Gustavo G. Nascimento and Abdallah Y. Naser and Abdulqadir J. Nashwan and Zuhair Saleh Natto and Javaid Nauman and Samidi Nirasha Kumari Navaratna and Muhammad Naveed and Nawsherwan Nawsherwan and Biswa Prakash Nayak and Vinod C Nayak and Hadush Negash and Ionuţ Negoi and Ruxandra Irina Negoi and Seyed Aria Nejadghaderi and Chakib Nejjari and Soroush Nematollahi and Henok Biresaw Netsere and Marie Ng and Georges Nguefack‐Tsague and Josephine W Ngunjiri and Anh Hoang Nguyen and Dang H. Nguyen and Duc Hoang Nguyen and Hau Thi Hien Nguyen and Nhan P. T. Nguyen and Nhien Ngoc Y Nguyen and Phat Tuan Nguyen and QuynhAnh P Nguyen and Van Thanh Nguyen and Duc Nguyen Tran Minh and Robina Khan Niazi and Yeshambel T. Nigatu and Mahdieh Niknam and Ali Nikoobar and Amin Reza Nikpoor and Nasrin Nikravangolsefid and Efaq Ali Noman and Shuhei Nomura and Syed Toukir Ahmed Noor and Nafise Noroozi and Mehran Nouri and Majid Nozari and Chisom Adaobi Nri-Ezedi and George Ntaios and Mengistu Handiso Nunemo and Dieta Nurrika and Jerry John Nutor and Chimezie Igwegbe Nzoputam and Ogochukwu Janet Nzoputam and Bogdan Oancea and Kehinde O. Obamiro and Ismail Ayoade Odetokun and Michael Safo Oduro and Oluwaseun Adeolu Ogundijo and Adesola Adenike Ogunfowokan and Abiola Ogunkoya and Ayodipupo Sikiru Oguntade and In‐Hwan Oh and Tolulope R Ojo-Akosile and Hassan Okati‐Aliabad and Akinkunmi Paul Okekunle and Osaretin Christabel Okonji and Andrew T Olagunju and Matthew Idowu Olatubi and Gláucia Maria Moraes de Oliveira and Bolajoko Olubukunola Olusanya and Jacob Olusegun Olusanya and Yinka Doris Oluwafemi and Hany A. Omar and Goran Latif Omer and Sokking Ong and Sandersan Onie and Obinna Emmanuel Onwujekwe and Abdulahi Opejin Opejin and Michał Ordak and Verner Ndudiri Orish and Alberto Ortíz and Esteban Ortiz‐Prado and Wael M S Osman and Sergej M. Ostojic and Samuel M Ostroff and Uchechukwu Levi Osuagwu and Adrian Oţoiu and Stanislav S Otstavnov and Amel Ouyahia and Mayowa Ojo Owolabi and Oyetunde Timothy Oyeyemi and Ahmad Ozair and Mahesh Padukudru P A and Alicia Padrón‐Monedero and Jagadish Rao Padubidri and Pramod Kumar Pal and Tamás Palicz and Feng Pan and Hai‐Feng Pan and Songhomitra Panda‐Jonas and Anamika Pandey and Victoria Pando‐Robles and Helena Ullyartha Pangaribuan and Georgios D. Panos and Leonidas D Panos and Ioannis N. Pantazopoulos and Anca Pantea Stoian and Romil R Parikh and Eun‐Kee Park and Seoyeon Park and Sungchul Park and Nicholas Parsons and Ashwaghosha Parthasarathi and Maja Pasovic and Roberto Passera and Jay Patel and Aslam Ramjan Pathan and Shankargouda Patil and Dimitrios Patoulias and Shrikant Pawar and Hamidreza Pazoki–Toroudi and Spencer A Pease and Amy E. Peden and Paolo Pedersini and Umberto Pensato and Veincent Christian Filipino Pepito and Prince Peprah and Marcos Pereira and Maria Odete Pereira and Arokiasamy Perianayagam and Norberto Perico and Simone Perna and Konrad Pesudovs and Fanny Emily Petermann-Rocha and Hoang Tran Pham and Anil K. Philip and Michael R Phillips and Manon Pigeolet and М. А. Пирадов and Enrico Pisoni and Evgenii Plotnikov and Dimitri Poddighe and Р. В. Полибин and Ramesh Poluru and Ville Ponkilainen and Djordje S. Popovic and Maarten Jacobus Postma and Ahmad Pour-Rashidi and Disha Prabhu and Sergio I. Prada and Jalandhar Pradhan and Pranil Man Singh Pradhan and Akila Prashant and Elton Junio Sady Prates and Tina Priscilla and Hery Purnobasuki and Bharathi M. Purohit and Jagadeesh Puvvula and Nameer Hashim Qasim and Ibrahim Qattea and Asma Saleem Qazi and Gangzhen Qian and Mehrdad Rabiee Rad and Venkatraman Srinivasan Radhakrishnan and Hadi Raeisi Shahraki and Quinn Rafferty and Alberto Raggi and Cat Raggi and Nasiru Raheem and Fakher Rahim and Md Jillur Rahim and Sarvenaz Rahimibarghani and Md Mijanur Mijanur Rahman Rahman and Mosiur Rahman and Muhammad Aziz Rahman and Tafhimur Rahman and Amir Masoud Rahmani and Mohammad Rahmanian and Nazanin Rahmanian and Rahem Rahmati and Setyaningrum Rahmawaty and Diego Raimondo and Adarsh Raja and Prashant Rajput and Majed M. Ramadan and Shakthi Kumaran Ramasamy and Sheena Ramazanu and Pramod Wasudeo Ramteke and Kritika Rana and Rishabh Kumar Rana and Chhabi Lal Ranabhat and Amey Rane and Chythra Raghavendra Rao and Mithun Rao and Davide Rasella and Vahid Rashedi and Ahmed Mustafa Rashid and Ashkan Rasouli‐Saravani and Prateek Rastogi and Azad Rasul and Devarajan Rathish and Giridhara R. Babu and Santosh Kumar Rauniyar and Ramin Ravangard and David Laith Rawaf and Salman Rawaf and Rabail Zehra Raza and Elrashdy M Moustafa Mohamed Redwan and Lennart Reifels and Marissa Bettay Reitsma and Giuseppe Remuzzi and Kannan R. R. Rengasamy and Bhageerathy Reshmi and Serge Resnikoff and Stefano Restaino and Luis Felipe Reyes and Nazila Rezaei and Negar Rezaei and زهرا سادات رضایی and Mohsen Rezaeian and Taeho Greg Rhee and Jennifer Rickard and Toshana Robalik and Hannah Elizabeth Robinson-Oden and Hermano Alexandre Lima Rocha and Mónica Rodrigues and Jefferson Antonio Buendía and Leonardo Roever and Debby Syahru Romadlon and Luca Ronfani and Moustaq Karim Khan Rony and Gholamreza Roshandel and Kunle Rotimi and Himanshu Sekhar Rout and Bedanta Roy and Enrico Rubagotti and Guilherme de Andrade Ruela and Susan F. Rumisha and Tilleye Runghien and Michele Russo and Aly M A Saad and Korosh Saber and Maha Mohamed Saber-Ayad and Cameron John Sabet and Siamak Sabour and Perminder Singh Sachdev and Adam Saddler and Bashdar Abuzed Sadee and Masoumeh Sadeghi and Mohammad Reza Saeb and Umar Saeed and Sher Zaman Safi and Rajesh Sagar and Alireza Saghafi and Dominic Sagoe and Amirhossein Sahebkar and Pragyan Monalisa Sahoo and Mirza Rizwan Sajid and Nasir Salam and Payman Salamati and Afeez Abolarinwa Salami and Mohamed A. Saleh and Leili Salehi and Marwa Rashad Salem and Aanuoluwa James Salemcity and Sohrab Salimi and Hossein Samadi Kafil and Saad J. Samargandy and Yoseph Leonardo Samodra and Abdallah M Samy and Juan Ramon Sanabria and Francesca Sanna and Milena M Santric-Milicevic and Bruno Piassi Sâo José and Sivan Yegnanarayana Iyer Saraswathy and Aswini Saravanan and Rodrigo Sarmiento-Suárez and Gargi Sachin Sarode and Sachin Chakradhar Sarode and Benn K. D. Sartorius and Maheswar Satpathy and Abu Sayeed and Nikolaos Scarmeas and Benedikt M. Schaarschmidt and Chrıstophe Schınckus and Art Schuermans and Austin E Schumacher and Aletta Elisabeth Schutte and David C. Schwebel and Falk Schwendicke and Siddharthan Selvaraj and Mohammad Harb Semreen and Sabyasachi Senapati and Pallav Sengupta and Subramanian Senthilkumaran and Dragoş Şerban and Yashendra Sethi and Allen Seylani and Mahan Shafie and Pritik A Shah and Ataollah Shahbandi and Samiah Shahid and Wajeehah Shahid and Hamid R. Shahsavari and Moyad Jamal Shahwan and Masood Ali Shaikh and Ali Shalash and Ali Shamekh and Muhammad Aaqib Shamim and Mohd Shanawaz and Abhishek Shankar and Mohammed Shannawaz and Medha Sharath and Sadaf Sharfaei and Amin Sharifan and Javad Sharifi‐Rad and Anupam Kumar Sharma and Manoj Sharma and Saurab Sharma and Vishal Sharma and Rajesh Padumane Shastry and Maryam Shayan and Shashank Shekhar and Rekha R. Shenoy and Mahabalesh Shetty and Pavanchand H Shetty and Premalatha K Shetty and Peilin Shi and Amir Shiani and Mika Shigematsu and Tariku Shimels and Rahman Shiri and Aminu Shittu and Ivy Shiue and K. M. Shivakumar and Sina Shool and Seyed Afshin Shorofi and Sunil Shrestha and Kerem Shuval and Yafei Si and Emmanuel Edwar Siddig and Jaspreet Kaur Sidhu and João Pedro Silva and Luís R. Silva and Soraia Silva and Thales Philipe Rodrigues da Silva and Colin R Simpson and Kyle E Simpson and Abhinav Singh and Balbir Bagicha Singh and Baljinder Singh and Harmanjit Singh and Jasbir Singh and Paramdeep Singh and Puneetpal Singh and Søren Thorgaard Skou and Georgia Smith and Farrukh Sobia and Bogdan Socea and Shipra Solanki and Hamidreza Soleimani and Sameh S. M. Soliman and Yi Song and Ireneous N Soyiri and Μichael Spartalis and Sandra Spearman and Chandrashekhar T Sreeramareddy and Jeffrey D Stanaway and Muhammad Haroon Stanikzai and Antonina Vladimirovna Starodubova and Dan Joseph Stein and Caitlyn Steiner and Paschalis Steiropoulos and Leo Stockfelt and Mark Andrew Stokes and Kurt Straif and Narayan Subedi and Rizwan Suliankatchi Abdulkader and Abida Sultana and Jing Sun and Johan Sundström and Chandan Kumar Swain and Łukasz Szarpak and Mindy D Szeto and Payam Tabaee Damavandi and Rafael Tabarés‐Seisdedos and Ozra Tabatabaei‐Malazy and Seyed‐Amir Tabatabaeizadeh and Shima Tabatabai and Karen M. Tabb and Celine Tabche and Mohammad Tabish and Yasaman Taheri Abkenar and Moslem Taheri Soodejani and Jabeen Taiba and Iman Mamdouh Talaat and Jacques Lukenze Tamuzi and Ker‐Kan Tan and Haosu Tang and Nathan Y Tat and Razieh Tavakoli Oliaee and Seyed Mohammad Tavangar and Nuno Taveira and Abdelghani Tbakhi and Hadi Tehrani and Mohamad-Hani A. Temsah and Masayuki Teramoto and Behailu Terefe Tesfaye and Enoch Teye‐Kwadjo and Pugazhenthan Thangaraju and Kavumpurathu Raman Thankappan and Rekha Thapar and Rasiah Thayakaran and Thirunavukkarasu Sathish and Nihal Thomas and Lau Caspar Thygesen and Jansje Henny Vera Ticoalu and Dinesh Timalsena and Tenaw Yimer Tiruye and Krishna Kant Tiwari and Sojit Tomo and Marcello A. Tonelli and Roman Topór-Mądry and Mathilde Touvier and Marcos Roberto Tovani‐Palone and An Thien Tran and Jasmine Thuy Tran and Nghia Minh Tran and Thang Huu Tran and Domenico Tricò and Samuel Joseph Tromans and Thien Tan Tri Tai Truyen and Aristidis Michael Tsatsakis and Evangelia Eirini Tsermpini and Munkhtuya Tumurkhuu and Steven T. Turnock and Arit Udoh and Atta Ullah and Saeed Mahmud Ullah and Sana Ullah and Srikanth Umakanthan and Muhammad Umar and Shehu Salihu Umar and Brigid Unim and Bhaskaran Unnikrishnan and Era Upadhyay and Jibrin Sammani Usman and Sanaz Vahdati and Asokan Govindaraj Vaithinathan and Omid Vakili and Rohollah Valizadeh and Jef Van den Eynde and Priya Vart and Shoban Babu Varthya and Tommi Juhani Vasankari and Milena Vasić and Narayanaswamy Venketasubramanian and Massimiliano Veroux and Georgios‐Ioannis Verras and Dominique Vervoort and Mathavaswami Vijayageetha and Jorge Hugo Villafañe and Manish Vinayak and Francesco Saverio Violante and Sergey Konstantinovitch Vladimirov and Vasily Vlassov and Bay Vo and Karn Vohra and Theo Vos and Abdul Wadood Wadood and Yasir Waheed and Fang Wang and Shaopan Wang and Shu Wang and Yanqing Wang and Yanzhong Wang and Yuan‐Pang Wang and Mary Njeri Wanjau and Muhammad Salman Waqas and Paul Ward and Abdul Waris and Emebet Gashaw Wassie and Stefanie Watson and Marcia R. Weaver and Kosala Weerakoon and Robert G Weintraub and Haftom Legese Weldetinsaa and Katherine M Wells and Yi Feng Wen and Ronny Westerman and Taweewat Wiangkham and Dakshitha Praneeth Wickramasinghe and Evi Widowati and Marcin Wlodzimierz Wojewodzic and Dawit Habte Woldeyes and Axel Walter Wolf and Charles D.A. Wolfe and Chenkai Wu and Dongze Wu and Felicia Wu and Jiayuan Wu and Zenghong Wu and Sarah Wulf Hanson and Hong Xiao and Suowen Xu and Rakesh Yadav and Kazumasa Yamagishi and Danting Yang and Yuichiro Yano and Amir Yarahmadi and Iman Yazdani Nia and Pengpeng Ye and Renjulal Yesodharan and Subah Abderehim Yesuf and Saber Yezli and Arzu Yiğit and Vahit Yiğit and Zeamanuel Anteneh Yigzaw and Dehui Yin and PAUL S. F. YIP and Naohiro Yonemoto and Yuyi You and Mustafa Z Younis and Chuanhua Yu and Elaine A. Yu and Yong Yu and Chun-Wei Yuan and Hadiza Yusuf and Uzma Zafar and Nima Zafari and Mondal Hasan Zahid and Fathiah Zakham and Nazar Zaki and Taddese Alemu Zerfu and Haijun Zhang and Jingya Zhang and Liqun Zhang and Yunquan Zhang and Zhiqiang Zhang and Xiu-Ju George Zhao and Yang Zhao and Zhongyi Zhao and Chenwen Zhong and Bolun Zhou and Juexiao Zhou and Shangcheng Zhou and Bin Zhu and Abzal Zhumagaliuly and Magdalena Zielińska and Ghazal Zoghi and Alimuddin I. Zumla and Sa’ed H. Zyoud and Samer H. Zyoud and Amanda Elizabeth Smith and Christopher J L Murray},
journal = {The Lancet},
year = {2024},
volume = {403},
number = {10440},
pages = {2204--2256},
doi = {10.1016/s0140-6736(24)00685-8},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/s0140-6736(24)00685-8}
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AU - Bhandari, Dinesh AU - Bharadwaj, Ravi AU - Bhardwaj, Nikha AU - Bhardwaj, Pankaj AU - Bhargava, Ashish AU - Bhaskar, Sonu M. M. AU - Bhat, Vivek AU - Bhattacharjee, Natalia V. AU - Bhatti, Gurjit Kaur AU - Bhatti, Jasvinder Singh AU - Bhatti, Manpreet S Singh AU - Bhuiyan, Mohiuddin Ahmed AU - Bisignano, Catherine AU - Biswas, Bijit AU - Bjørge, Tone AU - Bodolica, Virginia AU - Bodunrin, Aadam Olalekan AU - Hashemi, Milad Bonakdar AU - Başara, Berrak Bora AU - Borhany, Hamed AU - Bosoka, Samuel Adolf AU - Carvajal, Alejandro Botero AU - Bouaoud, Souad AU - Boufous, Soufiane AU - Boxe, C. S. AU - Boyko, Edward J. AU - Brady, Oliver J. AU - Braithwaite, Dejana AU - Brauer, Michael D AU - Brazo‐Sayavera, Javier AU - Brenner, Hermann AU - Brown, Colin Stewart AU - Browne, Annie J. AU - Brugha, Traolach Sean AU - Bryazka, Dana AU - Bulamu, Norma B. AU - Buonsenso, Danilo AU - Burkart, Katrin Gabriele AU - Burns, Richard Andrew AU - Busse, Reinhard AU - Bustanji, Yasser Khalil AU - Butt, Zahid A AU - Santos, Florentino Luciano Caetano dos AU - Barsbay, Mehtap Çakmak AU - Călina, Daniela Cornelia AU - Campos, Luciana Aparecida AU - Cao, Shujin AU - Capodici, Angelo AU - Cárdenas, Rosario AU - Carreras, Giulia AU - Carugno, Andrea AU - Carvalho, Márcia C. AU - Castaldelli-Maia, João Maurício AU - Castelpietra, Giulio AU - Cattaruzza, Maria Sofia AU - Caye, Arthur AU - Cegolon, Luca AU - Cembranel, Francieli AU - Cenko, Edina AU - Cerin, Ester AU - Chadban, Steven James AU - Chadwick, Joshua AU - Chakraborty, Chiranjib AU - Chakraborty, Sandip AU - Chalek, Julian AU - Chan, Jeffrey Shi Kai AU - Chandika, Rama Mohan AU - Chandy, Sara AU - Charan, Jaykaran AU - Chaudhary, Anis Ahmad AU - Chaurasia, Akhilanand AU - Chen, An‐Tian AU - Chen, Haowei AU - Chen, Mengxuan AU - Chen, Simiao AU - Cherbuin, Nicolas AU - Chi, Gerald AU - Chichagi, Fatemeh AU - Chimed‐Ochir, Odgerel AU - Chimoriya, Ritesh AU - Ching, Patrick R AU - Chirinos-Cáceres, Jesús Lorenzo AU - Chitheer, Abdulaal AU - Cho, Daniel AU - Cho, William Chi Shing AU - Choi, Dong‐Woo AU - Chong, Bryan AU - Chong, Chean Lin AU - Chopra, Hitesh AU - Chu, Dinh‐Toi AU - Chung, Eric AU - Chutiyami, Muhammad AU - Clayton, Justin T AU - Cogen, Rebecca M AU - Cohen, Aaron AU - Columbus, Alyssa AU - Comfort, Haley AU - Conde, João AU - Connolly, Jon T AU - Cooper, Ezra E K AU - Cortese, Samuele AU - Martins, Natália Alves AU - Silva, Alanna Gomes da AU - Dadras, Omid AU - Dai, Xiaochen AU - Dai, Zhaoli AU - Dalton, Bronte E AU - Damiani, Giovanni Battista AU - Dandona, Lalit AU - Dandona, Rakhi AU - Das, Jai K AU - Das, Saswati AU - Das, Subasish AU - Dash, Nihar Ranjan AU - Davletov, Kairat AU - Hoz, Fernando de la AU - Leo, Diego De AU - Debopadhaya, Shayom AU - Delgado‐Enciso, Iván AU - Denova‐Gutiérrez, Edgar AU - Dervenis, Nikolaos AU - Desai, Hardik Dineshbhai AU - Devanbu, Vinoth Gnana Chellaiyan AU - Dewan, Syed Masudur Rahman AU - Dhama, Kuldeep AU - Dhane, Amol S. 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AU - Elshaer, Mohammed Youssef Saad AU - Elsohaby, Ibrahim AU - Eltahir, Mohd. Elmagzoub AU - Emeto, Theophilus I. AU - Eshrati, Babak AU - Eslami, Majid AU - Esmaeili, Zahra AU - Fabin, Natalia AU - Fagbamigbe, Adeniyi Francis AU - Fagbule, Omotayo Francis AU - Falzone, Luca AU - Fareed, Mohammad AU - Farinha, Carla Sofia e Sá AU - Faris, MoezAlIslam E. AU - Faro, André AU - Fasihi, Kiana AU - Fatehizadeh, Ali AU - Fauk, Nelsensius Klau AU - Fazylov, Timur AU - Feigin, Valery L. AU - Fekadu, Ginenus AU - Feng, Xiaoqi AU - Fereshtehnejad, Seyed‐Mohammad AU - Ferrara, Pietro AU - Ferreira, Nuno Bravo AU - Firew, Belete Sewasew AU - Fischer, Florian AU - Fitriana, Ida AU - Flavel, Joanne AU - Flor, Luísa Sório AU - Foláyan, Morẹ́nikẹ́ Oluwátóyìn AU - Foley, Kristen Marie AU - Fonzo, Marco AU - Force, Lisa M AU - Foschi, Matteo AU - Freitas, Alberto AU - Fridayani, Ni Kadek Yuni AU - Fukutaki, Kai Glenn AU - Furtado, João M. AU - Fux, Blima AU - Gaál, Péter AU - Gadanya, Muktar A AU - Gallus, Silvano AU - Ganesan, Balasankar AU - Ganiyani, Mohammad Arfat AU - Gautam, Rupesh Kumar AU - Gebi, Tilaye Gebru AU - Gebregergis, Miglas Welay AU - Gebrehiwot, Mesfin AU - Getacher, Lemma AU - Getahun, Genanew Kassie AU - Gething, Peter W. AU - Ghadimi, Delaram J. AU - Ghadirian, Fataneh AU - Ghafarian, Sadegh AU - Ghailan, Khalid Yaser AU - Ghasemi, Mohammad‐Reza AU - Dabaghi, Ghazal Ghasempour AU - Ghazy, Ramy Mohamed AU - Ghoba, Sama AU - Gholami, Ehsan AU - Gholamrezanezhad, Ali AU - Gholizadeh, Nasim AU - Ghorbani, Mahsa AU - Vajargah, Pooyan Ghorbani AU - Ghotbi, Elena AU - Gil, Artyom Urievich AU - Gill, Tiffany K. AU - Girmay, Alem AU - Glasbey, James C AU - Glushkova, Ekaterina Vladimirovna AU - Gnedovskaya, Elena V. AU - Göbölös, László AU - Goldust, Mohamad AU - Goleij, Pouya AU - Golinelli, Davide AU - Gopalani, Sameer Vali AU - Goulart, Alessandra Carvalho AU - Gouravani, Mahdi AU - Goyal, Anmol AU - Grivna, Michal AU - Grosso, Giuseppe AU - Guarducci, Giovanni AU - Gubari, Mohammed Ibrahim Mohialdeen AU - Guicciardi, Stefano AU - Guimarães, Rafael Alves AU - Gulati, Snigdha AU - Gulisashvili, David AU - Gunawardane, Damitha Asanga AU - Guo, Cui AU - Gupta, Anish Kumar AU - Gupta, Rahul AU - Gupta, Rajeev AU - Gupta, Renu AU - Gupta, Sapna AU - Gupta, Vijai Kumar AU - Haakenstad, Annie AU - Hadi, Najah R AU - Haep, Nils AU - Hafiz, Abdul AU - Haghmorad, Dariush AU - Haile, Demewoz AU - Ali, Adel Hajj AU - Ali, Ali Hajj AU - Haj‐Mirzaian, Arvin AU - Halboub, Esam S AU - Haller, Sebastian AU - Halwani, Rabih AU - Abdullah, Kanaan Hamagharib AU - Hamdy, Nadia Μ. AU - Hamoudi, Rifat AU - Hanifi, Nasrin AU - Hankey, Graeme J. AU - Haq, Zaim Anan AU - Haque, Md Rabiul AU - Harapan, Harapan AU - Hargono, Arief AU - Haro, Josep Maria AU - Hasaballah, Ahmed I AU - Hasan, S M Mahmudul AU - Hasanian, Mohammad AU - Hasnain, Md Saquib AU - Hassan, Amr AU - Haubold, Johannes AU - Hay, Simon Iain AU - Hébert, Jeffrey J. AU - Hegazi, Omar E AU - Heidari, Mohammad AU - Hemmati, Mehdi AU - Henson, Claire A AU - Herrera-Serna, Brenda Yuliana AU - Herţeliu, Claudiu AU - Heydari, Majid AU - Hezam, Kamal AU - Hidayana, Irma AU - Hiraike, Yuta AU - Hoan, Nguyen Quoc AU - Holla, Ramesh AU - Hoogar, Praveen AU - Horita, Nobuyuki AU - Hossain, Md Mahbub AU - Hosseinzadeh, Hassan AU - Hosseinzadeh, Mehdi AU - Hostiuc, Mihaela AU - Hostiuc, Sorin AU - Hu, Chengxi AU - Huang, Junjie AU - Hultström, Michael AU - Hundie, Tsegaye Gebreyes AU - Hunt, Aliza J AU - Hushmandi, Kiavash AU - Hussain, Javid AU - Hussain, Mohammad Azhar AU - Hussein, Nawfal Rasheed AU - Huynh, Hong-Han AU - Hwang, Bing‐Fang AU - Ibitoye, Segun Emmanuel AU - Iftikhar, Pulwasha Maria AU - Ikiroma, Adalia I AU - Ikwegbue, Paul Chukwudi AU - Ilić, Irena AU - Ilić, Milena AU - Immurana, Mustapha AU - Isa, Mustafa Alhaji AU - Islam, Md. Rabiul AU - Islam, Sheikh Mohammed Shariful AU - Ismail, Faisal AU - Ismail, Nahlah Elkudssiah AU - Isola, Gaetano AU - Iwagami, Masao AU - Iyamu, Ihoghosa Osamuyi AU - Jacob, Louis AU - Jacobsen, Kathryn H. AU - Jafarinia, Morteza AU - Jahankhani, Kasra AU - Jahanmehr, Nader AU - Jain, Nityanand AU - Jairoun, Ammar Abdulrahman AU - Mani, Dr Ruchi Jakhmola AU - Jamil, Safayet AU - Jamora, Roland Dominic G. AU - Jatau, Abubakar Ibrahim AU - Javadov, Sabzali A. AU - Javaheri, Tahereh AU - Jayaram, Shubha AU - Jee, Sun Ha AU - Jeganathan, Jayakumar AU - Jiang, Heng Bo AU - Jokar, Mohammad AU - Jonas, Jost Bruno AU - Joseph, Nitin AU - Joshua, Charity Ehimwenma AU - Jürisson, Mikk AU - Vaishali, K AU - Kabir, Ali AU - Kabir, Zubair AU - Kadashetti, Vidya AU - Kalankesh, Laleh Ranandeh AU - Kalra, Sanjay AU - Kamath, Ashwin AU - Kamath, Rajesh AU - Kamireddy, Arun AU - Kanaan, Mona N AU - Kanchan, Tanuj AU - Kanmiki, Edmund Wedam AU - Kanmodi, Kehinde Kazeem AU - Kansal, Sushil Kumar AU - Karim, Asima AU - Karkhah, Samad AU - Kashoo, Faizan Zaffar AU - Kasraei, Hengameh AU - Kassel, Molly B AU - Katikireddi, Srinivasa Vittal AU - Kauppila, Joonas H. 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AU - Knudsen, Ann Kristin AU - Kochhar, Sonali AU - Kolahi, Ali‐Asghar AU - Kompani, Farzad AU - Koren, Gerbrand AU - Korzh, Oleksii AU - Krishan, Kewal AU - Krishna, Varun AU - Krishnamoorthy, Vijay K. AU - Biçer, Burcu Küçük AU - Kuddus, Md Abdul AU - Kuddus, Mohammed AU - Kuitunen, Ilari AU - Kujan, Omar AU - Kulimbet, Mukhtar AU - Kulkarni, Vishnutheertha AU - Kumar, G Anil AU - Kumar, Harish AU - Kumar, Nithin AU - Kumar, Rakesh AU - Kumar, Vijay AU - Kundu, Amartya AU - Kusuma, Dian Palupi AU - Kyei‐Arthur, Frank AU - Kytö, Ville AU - Kyu, Hmwe Hmwe AU - Vecchia, Carlo La AU - Lacey, Ben AU - Ladan, Muhammad Awwal AU - Laflamme, Lucie AU - Lahariya, Chandrakant AU - Lai, Daphne Teck Ching AU - Lalloo, Ratilal AU - Lallukka, Tea M. AU - Lám, Judit AU - Lan, Qing AU - Lan, Tuo AU - Landires, Iván AU - Lanfranchi, Francesco AU - Langguth, Berthold AU - Lansingh, Van Charles AU - Laplante-Lévesque, Ariane AU - Larijani, Bagher A. AU - Larsson, Anders AU - Lasrado, Savita AU - Lauriola, Paolo AU - Lawlor, Hilary R. AU - Le, Huu‐Hoai AU - Le, Long Khanh‐Dao AU - Le, Nhi Huu Hanh AU - Le, Thao Thi Thu AU - Le, Trang Diep Thanh AU - Leasher, Janet L AU - Lee, Doo Woong AU - Lee, Munjae AU - Lee, Paul Hong AU - Lee, Sang-woong AU - Lee, Seung Won AU - Lee, Shaun Wen Huey AU - Lee, Yo Han AU - Leigh, James AU - Leong, Elvynna AU - Li, Ming‐Chieh AU - Libra, Massimo AU - Ligade, Virendra S AU - Lim, Lee‐Ling AU - Lim, Stephen S AU - Limenh, Liknaw Workie AU - Lindholm, Daniel P. AU - Lindstedt, Paulina A AU - Listl, Stefan AU - Liu, Gang AU - Liu, Shiwei AU - Liu, Shuke AU - Liu, Xiaofeng AU - Liu, Xuefeng AU - Llanaj, Erand AU - López‐Bueno, Rubén AU - López‐Gil, José Francisco AU - Loreche, Arianna Maever AU - Lotufo, Paulo A. AU - Lozano, Rafael AU - Lubinda, Jailos AU - Lucchetti, Giancarlo AU - Luo, Lisha AU - Lusk, Jay B. AU - Lv, Lei AU - Amin, Hawraz Ibrahim M. 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AU - Mansouri, Mohammad Hadi AU - Mansouri, Pejman AU - Mansouri, Vahid AU - Mansourian, Marjan AU - Mansournia, Mohammad Alì AU - Marasini, Bishnu Prasad AU - Marateb, Hamid Reza AU - Maravilla, Joemer Calderon AU - Mardi, Parham AU - Marjani, Abdoljalal AU - Moghadam, Hamed Markazi AU - Marrugo-Arnedo, Carlos Alberto AU - Martínez, Gabriel AU - Martínez, Ramón AU - Martins‐Melo, Francisco Rogerlândio AU - Martorell, Miquel AU - Marx, Wolfgang AU - Marzo, Roy Rillera AU - Masoudi, Sahar AU - Mathangasinghe, Yasith AU - Mathioudakis, Alexander G. AU - Mathur, Medha AU - Mathur, Navgeet AU - Mathur, Neeta AU - Matozinhos, Fernanda Penido AU - Mattumpuram, Jishanth AU - Maude, Richard J. 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