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Michael D Brauer, Gregory A. Roth, Aleksandr Y. Aravkin, Peng Zheng, Kalkidan Hassen Abate, Yohannes Habtegiorgis Abate, Cristiana Abbafati, Rouzbeh Abbasgholizadeh, Madineh Akram Abbasi, Mohammadreza Abbasian and 1785 more
BACKGROUND: Understanding the health consequences associated with exposure to risk factors is necessary to inform public health policy and practice. To systematically quantify the contributions of risk factor exposures to specific health outcomes, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 aims to provide comprehensive estimates of exposure levels, relative health risks, and attributable burden of disease for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021. METHODS: The GBD 2021 risk factor analysis used data from 54 561 total distinct sources to produce epidemiological estimates for 88 risk factors and their associated health outcomes for a total of 631 risk-outcome pairs. Pairs were included on the basis of data-driven determination of a risk-outcome association. Age-sex-location-year-specific estimates were generated at global, regional, and national levels. Our approach followed the comparative risk assessment framework predicated on a causal web of hierarchically organised, potentially combinative, modifiable risks. Relative risks (RRs) of a given outcome occurring as a function of risk factor exposure were estimated separately for each risk-outcome pair, and summary exposure values (SEVs), representing risk-weighted exposure prevalence, and theoretical minimum risk exposure levels (TMRELs) were estimated for each risk factor. These estimates were used to calculate the population attributable fraction (PAF; ie, the proportional change in health risk that would occur if exposure to a risk factor were reduced to the TMREL). The product of PAFs and disease burden associated with a given outcome, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), yielded measures of attributable burden (ie, the proportion of total disease burden attributable to a particular risk factor or combination of risk factors). Adjustments for mediation were applied to account for relationships involving risk factors that act indirectly on outcomes via intermediate risks. Attributable burden estimates were stratified by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile and presented as counts, age-standardised rates, and rankings. To complement estimates of RR and attributable burden, newly developed burden of proof risk function (BPRF) methods were applied to yield supplementary, conservative interpretations of risk-outcome associations based on the consistency of underlying evidence, accounting for unexplained heterogeneity between input data from different studies. Estimates reported represent the mean value across 500 draws from the estimate's distribution, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) calculated as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile values across the draws. FINDINGS: Among the specific risk factors analysed for this study, particulate matter air pollution was the leading contributor to the global disease burden in 2021, contributing 8·0% (95% UI 6·7-9·4) of total DALYs, followed by high systolic blood pressure (SBP; 7·8% [6·4-9·2]), smoking (5·7% [4·7-6·8]), low birthweight and short gestation (5·6% [4·8-6·3]), and high fasting plasma glucose (FPG; 5·4% [4·8-6·0]). For younger demographics (ie, those aged 0-4 years and 5-14 years), risks such as low birthweight and short gestation and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing (WaSH) were among the leading risk factors, while for older age groups, metabolic risks such as high SBP, high body-mass index (BMI), high FPG, and high LDL cholesterol had a greater impact. From 2000 to 2021, there was an observable shift in global health challenges, marked by a decline in the number of all-age DALYs broadly attributable to behavioural risks (decrease of 20·7% [13·9-27·7]) and environmental and occupational risks (decrease of 22·0% [15·5-28·8]), coupled with a 49·4% (42·3-56·9) increase in DALYs attributable to metabolic risks, all reflecting ageing populations and changing lifestyles on a global scale. Age-standardised global DALY rates attributable to high BMI and high FPG rose considerably (15·7% [9·9-21·7] for high BMI and 7·9% [3·3-12·9] for high FPG) over this period, with exposure to these risks increasing annually at rates of 1·8% (1·6-1·9) for high BMI and 1·3% (1·1-1·5) for high FPG. By contrast, the global risk-attributable burden and exposure to many other risk factors declined, notably for risks such as child growth failure and unsafe water source, with age-standardised attributable DALYs decreasing by 71·5% (64·4-78·8) for child growth failure and 66·3% (60·2-72·0) for unsafe water source. We separated risk factors into three groups according to trajectory over time: those with a decreasing attributable burden, due largely to declining risk exposure (eg, diet high in trans-fat and household air pollution) but also to proportionally smaller child and youth populations (eg, child and maternal malnutrition); those for which the burden increased moderately in spite of declining risk exposure, due largely to population ageing (eg, smoking); and those for which the burden increased considerably due to both increasing risk exposure and population ageing (eg, ambient particulate matter air pollution, high BMI, high FPG, and high SBP). INTERPRETATION: Substantial progress has been made in reducing the global disease burden attributable to a range of risk factors, particularly those related to maternal and child health, WaSH, and household air pollution. Maintaining efforts to minimise the impact of these risk factors, especially in low SDI locations, is necessary to sustain progress. Successes in moderating the smoking-related burden by reducing risk exposure highlight the need to advance policies that reduce exposure to other leading risk factors such as ambient particulate matter air pollution and high SBP. Troubling increases in high FPG, high BMI, and other risk factors related to obesity and metabolic syndrome indicate an urgent need to identify and implement interventions. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Brauer, M. D., Roth, G. A., Aravkin, A. Y., Zheng, P., Abate, K. H., Abate, Y. H., Abbafati, C., Abbasgholizadeh, R., Abbasi, M. A., Abbasian, M., Abbasifard, M., Abbasi‐Kangevari, M., ElHafeez, S. A., Abd-Elsalam, S. M., Abdi, P., Abdollahi, M. R., Abdoun, M., Abdulah, D. M., Abdullahi, A., … Gakidou, E. E. (2024). Global burden and strength of evidence for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. The Lancet, 403(10440), 2162–2203. https://doi.org/10.1016/s0140-6736(24)00933-4
Brauer, Michael D, et al. "Global burden and strength of evidence for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021." The Lancet, vol. 403, no. 10440, 2024, pp. 2162–2203, https://doi.org/10.1016/s0140-6736(24)00933-4.
Brauer, Michael D, Gregory A. Roth, Aleksandr Y. Aravkin, Peng Zheng, Kalkidan Hassen Abate, Yohannes Habtegiorgis Abate, Cristiana Abbafati, et al. "Global burden and strength of evidence for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021." The Lancet 403, no. 10440 (2024): 2162–2203. https://doi.org/10.1016/s0140-6736(24)00933-4.
Brauer M. D., Roth G. A., Aravkin A. Y. [и др.] Global burden and strength of evidence for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 // The Lancet. — 2024. — Vol. 403, № 10440. — P. 2162–2203. — URL: https://doi.org/10.1016/s0140-6736(24)00933-4
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title = {{Global burden and strength of evidence for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021}},
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Kerr and Emmanuelle Kesse‐Guyot and Yousef Saleh Khader and Morteza Abdullatif Khafaie and Himanshu Khajuria and Amirmohammad Khalaji and Mariam Khalil and Alireza Khalilian and Faham Khamesipour and Asaduzzaman Khan and Md Nuruzzaman Khan and Maseer Khan and Mohammad Jobair Khan and Moien AB Khan and Shaghayegh Khanmohammadi and Khaled Khatab and Haitham Khatatbeh and Moawiah Mohammad Khatatbeh and Mahalaqua Nazli Khatib and Armin Khavandegar and Hamid Reza Khayat Kashani and Feriha Fatima Khidri and Elaheh Khodadoust and Moein Khormali and Zahra Khorrami and Atulya Aman Khosla and Mahmood Khosrowjerdi and Haneen Khreis and Helda Khusun and Zemene Demelash Kifle and Kwanghyun Kim and Min Seo Kim and Yun Jin Kim and Ruth W Kimokoti and Adnan Kısa and Sezer Kısa and Luke D. Knibbs and Ann Kristin Knudsen and David Soo Quee Koh and Ali‐Asghar Kolahi and Farzad Kompani and Jianqiu Kong and Gerbrand Koren and Miikka Korja and Vladimir Andreevich Korshunov and Oleksii Korzh and Soewarta Kosen and Nikhil Kothari and Parvaiz Ahmad Koul and Sindhura Lakshmi Koulmane Laxminarayana and Kewal Krishan and Vijay K. Krishnamoorthy and Yuvaraj Krishnamoorthy and Bindu Krishnan and Kris J Krohn and Barthélémy Kuate Defo and Burcu Küçük Biçer and Md Abdul Kuddus and Mohammed Kuddus and Nuworza Kugbey and Ilari Kuitunen and Mukhtar Kulimbet and Vishnutheertha Kulkarni and Ashish Kumar and Nithin Kumar and Vijay L. Kumar and Satyajit Kundu and Om Kurmi and Asep Kusnali and Dian Palupi Kusuma and Tezer Kutluk and Carlo La Vecchia and Muhammad Awwal Ladan and Lucie Laflamme and Chandrakant Lahariya and Daphne Teck Ching Lai and Dharmesh Kumar Lal and Tea M. Lallukka and Judit Lám and Qing Lan B and Tuo Lan and Iván Landires and Francesco Lanfranchi and Berthold Langguth and Van Charles Lansingh and Ariane Laplante-Lévesque and Bagher A. Larijani and Anders Larsson and Savita Lasrado and Paolo Lauriola and Huu‐Hoai Le and Long Khanh‐Dao Le and Nhi Huu Hanh Le and Thao Thi Thu Le and Janet L Leasher and Caterina Ledda and Munjae Lee and Paul Hong Lee and Seung Won Lee and Shaun Wen Huey Lee and Yo Han Lee and Kate E LeGrand and James Leigh and Elvynna Leong and Temesgen Leka Lerango and Haley Lescinsky and Janni Leung and Ming‐Chieh Li and Wang‐Zhong Li and Wei Li and Li Yichong and Zhihui Li and Virendra S Ligade and Lee‐Ling Lim and Stephen S Lim and Ro‐Ting Lin and Shuzhi Lin and Chaojie Liu and Gang Liu and Jinli Liu and Jue Liu and Richard T. Liu and Shiwei Liu and Wei Yong Liu and Xiaofeng Liu and Xuefeng Liu and Katherine Mary Livingstone and Erand Llanaj and Ayush Lohiya and Rubén López‐Bueno and Лопухов Платон Дмитриевич and Stefan Lorkowski A and Paulo A. Lotufo and Rafael Lozano and Jailos Lubinda and Giancarlo Lucchetti and Lisha Luo and Hengliang Lv and Hawraz Ibrahim M. Amin and Zheng Feei and Kelsey Lynn Maass and Mahmoud Mabrok and Nikolaos Machairas and Monika Elżbieta Machoy and Asma Mafhoumi and Mohammed Magdy Abd El Razek and Azzam A. Maghazachi and D. Prasad and Sandeep Bhupendra Maharaj and Mansour Adam Mahmoud and Elham Mahmoudi and Azeem Majeed and Omar Mohamed Makram and Konstantinos C. Makris and Satyaveni Malasala and Venkatesh Maled and Kashish Malhotra and Ahmad Azam Malik and Iram Malik and Lesibana Anthony Malinga and Déborah Carvalho Malta and Abdullah Al Mamun and Ana Laura Manda and Yosef Manla and Ali E. Mansour and Borhan Mansouri and Pejman Mansouri and Marjan Mansourian and Mohammad Alì Mansournia and Lorenzo Giovanni Mantovani and Emmanuel Manu and Hamid Reza Marateb and Joemer Calderon Maravilla and Elizabeth Marsh and Gabriel Martínez and Ramón Martínez and Santi Martini and Francisco Rogerlândio Martins‐Melo and Miquel Martorell and Wolfgang Marx and Sharmeen Maryam and Yasith Mathangasinghe and Alexander G. Mathioudakis and Fernanda Penido Matozinhos and Jishanth Mattumpuram and Andrea Maugeri and Pallab Kumar Maulik and Mahsa Mayeli and Mohsen Mazidi and Antonio Mazzotti and John Joseph McGrath and Martin McKee and Anna Laura W McKowen and Susan A. McLaughlin and Michael A McPhail and Steven McPhail and Enkeleint Aggelos Mechili and Asim Mehmood and Khalid Mehmood and Kamran Mehrabani-Zeinabad and Entezar Mehrabi Nasab and Toni Meier and Fabiola Mejía‐Rodríguez and Tesfahun Mekene Meto and Birye Dessalegn Mekonnen and Ritesh George Menezes and Belayneh Mengist and George A. Mensah and Laverne G Mensah and Alexios‐Fotios A. Mentis and Sultan Ayoub Meo and Atte Meretoja and Tuomo J Meretoja and Abera M Mersha and Bezawit Afework Mesfin and Tomislav Meštrović and Kukulege Chamila Dinushi Mettananda and Sachith Mettananda and Tomasz Miazgowski and Georgia Micha and Irmina Maria Michałek and Ana Carolina Micheletti Gomide Nogueira de Sá and Ted R. Miller and Mojde Mirarefin and Mojgan Mirghafourvand and Andreea Mirică and Antonio Mirijello and Erkin Mirsaidovich Mirrakhimov and Arvin Mirshahi and Maryam Mirzaei and Ajay Kumar Mishra and Vinaytosh Mishra and Philip Bowden Mitchell and Prasanna Mithra and Chaitanya Mittal and Babak Moazen and Madeline E Moberg and Gabriele Mocciaro and Ashraf Mohamadkhani and Abdalla Z. Mohamed and Ahmed Ismail Mohamed and Jama Mohamed and Mouhand Faisal Hamad Mohamed and Nouh Saad Mohamed and Esmaeil Mohammadi and Saeed Mohammadi and Abdollah Mohammadian-Hafshejani and Noushin Mohammadifard and Hussen Mohammed and Mustapha Mohammed and Salahuddin Mohammed and Shafiu Mohammed and Ali H. Mokdad and Lorenzo Monasta and Stefania Mondello and Mohammad Ali Moni and AmirAli Moodi Ghalibaf and Catrin E. Moore and Maryam Moradi and Yousef Moradi and Paula Moraga and Lídia Morawska and Rafael Silveira Moreira and Negar Morovatdar and Shane Douglas Morrison and Jakub Morze and Reza Mosaddeghi-Heris and Elias A. Mossialos and Rohith Motappa and Vincent Mougin and Parsa Mousavi and Ahmed A.A. 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Nguyen and Nhien Ngoc Y Nguyen and Phat Tuan Nguyen and Phuong The Nguyen and Van Thanh Nguyen and Duc Nguyen Tran Minh and Robina Khan Niazi and Sneha Ingle Nicholson and Jing Nie and Ali Nikoobar and Amin Reza Nikpoor and Dina Nur Anggraini Ningrum and Chukwudi A Nnaji and Efaq Ali Noman and Shuhei Nomura and Nafise Noroozi and Bo Norrving and Jean Jacques Noubiap and Chisom Adaobi Nri-Ezedi and George Ntaios and Mpiko Ntsekhe and Mengistu Handiso Nunemo and Dieta Nurrika and Jerry John Nutor and Bogdan Oancea and Erin M O’Connell and Ismail Ayoade Odetokun and Martin James O'Donnell and Michael Safo Oduro and Adesola Adenike Ogunfowokan and Abiola Ogunkoya and In‐Hwan Oh and Hassan Okati‐Aliabad and Sylvester Reuben Okeke and Akinkunmi Paul Okekunle and Osaretin Christabel Okonji and Andrew T Olagunju and Omotola O Olasupo and Matthew Idowu Olatubi and Arão Belitardo Oliveira and Gláucia Maria Moraes de Oliveira and Abdulhakeem Abayomi Olorukooba and Isaac Iyinoluwa Olufadewa and Bolajoko Olubukunola Olusanya and Jacob Olusegun Olusanya and Yinka Doris Oluwafemi and Hany A. 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Shahsavari and Moyad Jamal Shahwan and Masood Ali Shaikh and Summaiya Zareen Shaikh and Ali Shalash and Sunder Sham and Muhammad Aaqib Shamim and Mehran Shams-Beyranvand and Mohammad Ali Shamshirgaran and Mohammad Anas Shamsi and Mohd Shanawaz and Abhishek Shankar and Sadaf Sharfaei and Amin Sharifan and Javad Sharifi‐Rad and Manoj Sharma and Ujjawal Sharma and Vishal Sharma and Rajesh Padumane Shastry and Amin Shavandi and Amr Mohamed Elsayed Shehabeldine and Somia Shehzadi and Aziz Sheikh and Jiabin Shen and Adithi Shetty and B. Suresh Kumar Shetty and Pavanchand H Shetty and Amir Shiani and Desalegn Shiferaw and Mika Shigematsu and Min‐Jeong Shin and Rahman Shiri and Aminu Shittu and Ivy Shiue and K. M. Shivakumar and Velizar Stefanov Shivarov and Sina Shool and Seyed Afshin Shorofi and Rajan Kumar Shrestha and Sunil Shrestha and Kanwar Hamza Shuja and Kerem Shuval and Yafei Si and Emmanuel Edwar Siddig and Diego Augusto Santos Silva and Luís R. Silva and Soraia Silva and Thales Philipe Rodrigues da Silva and Colin R Simpson and Abhinav Singh and Balbir Bagicha Singh and Baljinder Singh and Garima Singh and Harmanjit Singh and Jasvinder A. Singh and Mahendra Singh and Narinder Pal Singh and Paramdeep Singh and Surjit Singh and Robert Sinto and Shravan Sivakumar and Samarjeet Singh Siwal and Natia Skhvitaridze and Søren Thorgaard Skou and David A. Sleet and Farrukh Sobia and Matiwos Soboka and Bogdan Socea and Shahabaddin Solaimanian and Ranjan Solanki and Shipra Solanki and Sameh S. M. Soliman and Ranjani Somayaji and Yi Song and Reed J D Sorensen and Joan Bautista Soriano and Ireneous N Soyiri and Μichael Spartalis and Sandra Spearman and Cory N Spencer and Chandrashekhar T Sreeramareddy and Panagiotis Stachteas and Lauryn K Stafford and Jeffrey D Stanaway and Muhammad Haroon Stanikzai and Caroline Stein and Dan Joseph Stein and Fridolin Steinbeis and Caitlyn Steiner and Sabine Steinke and Paschalis Steiropoulos and Leo Stockfelt and Mark Andrew Stokes and Kurt Straif and Saverio Stranges and Narayan Subedi and Vetriselvan Subramaniyan and Muhammad Suleman and Rizwan Suliankatchi Abdulkader and Johan Sundström and David Sunkersing and Katharina Stibrant Sunnerhagen and Vinay Suresh and Chandan Kumar Swain and Łukasz Szarpak and Mindy D Szeto and Payam Tabaee Damavandi and Rafael Tabarés‐Seisdedos and Seyyed Mohammad Tabatabaei and Ozra Tabatabaei‐Malazy and Seyed‐Amir Tabatabaeizadeh and Shima Tabatabai and Celine Tabche and Mohammad Tabish and Santosh Kumar Tadakamadla and Yasaman Taheri Abkenar and Moslem Taheri Soodejani and Amir Taherkhani and Jabeen Taiba and Ken Takahashi and Iman Mamdouh Talaat and Jacques Lukenze Tamuzi and Ker‐Kan Tan and Haosu Tang and Nathan Y Tat and Nuno Taveira and Yibekal Manaye Tefera and Arash Tehrani‐Banihashemi and Worku Animaw Temesgen and Mohamad-Hani A. Temsah and Masayuki Teramoto and Dufera Rikitu Terefa and Enoch Teye‐Kwadjo and Ramna Thakur and Pugazhenthan Thangaraju and Kavumpurathu Raman Thankappan and Rekha Thapar and Rasiah Thayakaran and Thirunavukkarasu Sathish and Nihal Thomas and Nikhil Kenny Thomas and Jing Tian and Aleš Tichopád and Jansje Henny Vera Ticoalu and Tenaw Yimer Tiruye and Ruoyan Tobe-Gai and Musliu Adetola Tolani and Tadesse Tolossa and Marcello A. Tonelli and Roman Topór-Mądry and Fotis Topouzis and Mathilde Touvier and Marcos Roberto Tovani‐Palone and Khaled Trabelsi and Jasmine Thuy Tran and Mai Thi Ngoc Tran and Nghia Minh Tran and Domenico Tricò and Indang Trihandini and Christopher Troeger and Samuel Joseph Tromans and Thien Tan Tri Tai Truyen and Aristidis Michael Tsatsakis and Evangelia Eirini Tsermpini and Munkhtuya Tumurkhuu and Aniefiok John Udoakang and Arit Udoh and Atta Ullah and Saeed Mahmud Ullah and Sana Ullah and Muhammad Umair and Srikanth Umakanthan and Brigid Unim and Bhaskaran Unnikrishnan and Era Upadhyay and Daniele Urso and Jibrin Sammani Usman and Asokan Govindaraj Vaithinathan and Omid Vakili and Mario Valenti and Rohollah Valizadeh and Jef Van den Eynde and Aaron van Donkelaar and Orsolya Varga and Priya Vart and Shoban Babu Varthya and Tommi Juhani Vasankari and Milena Vasić and Siavash Vaziri and Narayanaswamy Venketasubramanian and Nicholas Alexander Verghese and Madhur Verma and Massimiliano Veroux and Georgios‐Ioannis Verras and Dominique Vervoort and Jorge Hugo Villafañe and Victor Eduardo Villalobos-Daniel and Leonardo Villani and Gabriela Ines Villanueva and Manish Vinayak and Francesco Saverio Violante and Vasily Vlassov and Bay Vo and Stein Emil Vollset and Simona Ruxandra Volovăț and Theo Vos and Isidora S Vujcic and Yasir Waheed and Cong Wang and Fang Wang and Shu Wang and Yanzhong Wang and Yuan‐Pang Wang and Mary Njeri Wanjau and Muhammad Salman Waqas and Paul Ward and Abdul Waris and Emebet Gashaw Wassie and Kosala Weerakoon and Robert G Weintraub and Daniel J. Weiss and Eli J. Weiss and Haftom Legese Weldetinsaa and Katherine M Wells and Yi Feng Wen and Taweewat Wiangkham and Nuwan Darshana Wickramasinghe and Caroline Wilkerson and Peter Willeit and Shadrach Wilson and Yen Jun Wong and Utoomporn Wongsin and Sarah N. Wozniak and Chenkai Wu and Dongze Wu and Felicia Wu and Zenghong Wu and Juan Xia and Hong Xiao and Suowen Xu and Xiaoyue Xu and Yvonne Yiru Xu and Mukesh Yadav and Sajad Yaghoubi and Kazumasa Yamagishi and Lin Yang and Yuichiro Yano and Habib Yaribeygi and Yuichi Yasufuku and Pengpeng Ye and Renjulal Yesodharan and Subah Abderehim Yesuf and Saber Yezli and Siyan Yi and Arzu Yiğit and Zeamanuel Anteneh Yigzaw and Dehui Yin and PAUL S. F. YIP and Malede Berihun Yismaw and Dong Keon Yon and Naohiro Yonemoto and Yuyi You and Mustafa Z Younis and Zabihollah Yousefi and Chuanhua Yu and Yong Yu and Siddhesh Zadey and Vesna Zadnik and Fathiah Zakham and Nazar Zaki and Josefina Zakzuk and Giulia Zamagni and Sojib Bin Zaman and Ghazal G Z Zandieh and Aurora Zanghì and Heather Joy Zar and Iman Zare and Fatemeh Zarimeidani and Михаил Сергеевич Застрожин and Youjie Zeng and Chunxia Zhai and Anthony Lin Zhang and Haijun Zhang and Liqun Zhang and Meixin Zhang and Yunquan Zhang and Zhenyu Zhang and Zhi-Jiang Zhang and Hanqing Zhao and Jeff T Zhao and Xiu-Ju George Zhao and Yang Zhao and Yong Zhao and Chenwen Zhong and Zhiyong Zou and Juexiao Zhou and Shangcheng Zhou and Bin Zhu and Lei Zhu and Zhaohua Zhu and Boback Ziaeian and Makan Ziafati and Magdalena Zielińska and Stephanie R M Zimsen and Ghazal Zoghi and Thomas Zöller and Alimuddin I. Zumla and Sa’ed H. Zyoud and Samer H. Zyoud and Christopher J L Murray and Emmanuela E. Gakidou},
journal = {The Lancet},
year = {2024},
volume = {403},
number = {10440},
pages = {2162--2203},
doi = {10.1016/s0140-6736(24)00933-4},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/s0140-6736(24)00933-4}
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AU - Zheng, Peng AU - Abate, Kalkidan Hassen AU - Abate, Yohannes Habtegiorgis AU - Abbafati, Cristiana AU - Abbasgholizadeh, Rouzbeh AU - Abbasi, Madineh Akram AU - Abbasian, Mohammadreza AU - Abbasifard, Mitra AU - Abbasi‐Kangevari, Mohsen AU - ElHafeez, Samar Abd AU - Abd-Elsalam, Sherief Mohamed AU - Abdi, Parsa AU - Abdollahi, Mohammad Reza AU - Abdoun, Meriem AU - Abdulah, Deldar Morad AU - Abdullahi, Auwal AU - Abebe, Mesfin AU - Abedi, Aidin AU - Abedi, Armita AU - Abegaz, Tadesse Melaku AU - Zúñiga, Roberto Ariel Abeldaño AU - Abiodun, Olumide A AU - Abiso, Temesgen Lera AU - Aboagye, Richard Gyan AU - Abolhassani, Hassan AU - Abouzid, Mohamed AU - Aboye, Girma Beressa AU - Abreu, Lucas Guimarães AU - Abualruz, Hasan AU - Abubakar, Bilyaminu AU - Abu‐Gharbieh, Eman AU - Abukhadijah, Hana J AU - Aburuz, Salahdein AU - Abu‐Zaid, Ahmed AU - Adane, Mesafint Molla AU - Addo, Isaac Yeboah AU - Addolorato, Giovanni AU - Adedoyin, Rufus Adesoji AU - Adekanmbi, Victor AU - Aden, Bashir AU - Adetunji, Juliana Bunmi AU - Adeyeoluwa, Temitayo Esther AU - Adha, Rishan AU - Adibi, Amin AU - Adnani, Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah AU - Adzigbli, Leticia Akua AU - Afolabi, Aanuoluwapo Adeyimika AU - Afolabi, Rotimi Felix AU - Afshin, Ashkan AU - Afyouni, Shadi AU - Afzal, Muhammad Sohail AU - Afzal, Saira AU - Agampodi, Suneth Buddhika AU - Agbozo, Faith AU - Aghamiri, Shahin AU - Agodi, Antonella AU - Agrawal, Anurag AU - Agyemang‐Duah, Williams AU - Ahinkorah, Bright Opoku AU - Ahmad, Aqeel AU - Ahmad, Danish AU - Ahmad, Firdos AU - Ahmad, Noah S. 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AU - Bayati, Mohsen AU - Bayileyegn, Nebiyou Simegnew AU - Beaney, Thomas E AU - Behnoush, Amir Hossein AU - Beiranvand, Maryam AU - Béjot, Yannick AU - Bekele, Alehegn AU - Belgaumi, Uzma Iqbal AU - Bell, Arielle Wilder AU - Bell, Michelle Lee AU - Bello, Muhammad Bashir AU - Bello, Olorunjuwon Omolaja AU - Belo, Luı́s AU - Beloukas, Apostolos I. AU - Bendak, Salaheddine AU - Bennett, Derrick AU - Bennitt, Fiona B AU - Benseñor, Isabela M. AU - Benzian, Habib AU - Beran, Azizullah AU - Berezvai, Zombor AU - Bernabé, Eduardo AU - Bernstein, Robert S. AU - Bettencourt, Paulo J. G. AU - Bhagavathula, Akshaya Srikanth AU - Bhala, Neeraj B. AU - Bhandari, Dinesh AU - Bhardwaj, Nikha AU - Bhardwaj, Pankaj AU - Bhaskar, Sonu M. M. AU - Bhat, Ajay Nagesh AU - Bhat, Vivek AU - Bhatti, Gurjit Kaur AU - Bhatti, Jasvinder Singh AU - Bhatti, Manpreet S Singh AU - Bhatti, Rajbir AU - Bhuiyan, Mohiuddin Ahmed AU - Bhutta, Zulfiqar Ahmed AU - Bikbov, Boris T. AU - Bishai, Jessica Devin AU - Bisignano, Catherine AU - Biswas, Atanu AU - Biswas, Bijit AU - Biswas, Raaj Kishore AU - Bjørge, Tone AU - Boachie, Micheal Kofi AU - Boakye, Hosea AU - Bockarie, Moses John AU - Bodolica, Virginia AU - Bodunrin, Aadam Olalekan AU - Bogale, Eyob Ketema AU - Bolla, Srinivasa Rao AU - Boloor, Archith AU - Hashemi, Milad Bonakdar AU - Boppana, Sri Harsha AU - Başara, Berrak Bora AU - Borhany, Hamed AU - Carvajal, Alejandro Botero AU - Bouaoud, Souad AU - Boufous, Soufiane AU - Bourne, Rupert AU - Boxe, C. S. AU - Braithwaite, Dejana AU - Brant, Luísa Campos Caldeira AU - Brar, Amanpreet AU - Breitborde, Nicholas J. K. AU - Breitner, Susanne AU - Brenner, Hermann AU - Briko, Andrey Nikolaevich AU - Britton, Gabrielle B. AU - Brown, Colin Stewart AU - Browne, Annie J. AU - Brunoni, André R. AU - Bryazka, Dana AU - Bulamu, Norma B. AU - Bulto, Lemma N AU - Buonsenso, Danilo AU - Burkart, Katrin Gabriele AU - Burns, Richard Andrew AU - Busse, Reinhard AU - Bustanji, Yasser Khalil AU - Butt, Nadeem Shafique AU - Butt, Zahid A AU - Santos, Florentino Luciano Caetano dos AU - Cagney, Jack AU - Cahuana-Hurtado, Lucero AU - Călina, Daniela Cornelia AU - Cámera, Luis Alberto AU - Campos, Luciana Aparecida AU - Campos‐Nonato, Ismael AU - Cao, Chao AU - Cao, Fan AU - Cao, Yubin AU - Capodici, Angelo AU - Cárdenas, Rosario AU - Carr, Sinclair AU - Carreras, Giulia AU - Carrero, Juan Jesús AU - Carugno, Andrea AU - Carvalho, Félix Dias AU - Carvalho, Márcia C. AU - Castaldelli-Maia, João Maurício AU - Castañeda-Orjuela, Carlos Andrés AU - Castelpietra, Giulio AU - Catalá-López, Ferrán AU - Catapano, Alberico Luigi AU - Cattaruzza, Maria Sofia AU - Caye, Arthur AU - Cederroth, Christopher Robin AU - Cegolon, Luca AU - Cenderadewi, Muthia AU - Cercy, Kelly M. AU - Cerin, Ester AU - Chadwick, Joshua AU - Chakraborty, Chiranjib AU - Chakraborty, Promit Ananyo AU - Chakraborty, Sandip AU - Chan, Jeffrey Shi Kai AU - Chan, Raymond N C AU - Chandan, Joht Singh AU - Chandika, Rama Mohan AU - Chaturvedi, Pankaj AU - Chen, An‐Tian AU - Chen, Catherine S AU - Chen, Haowei AU - Chen, Mengxuan AU - Chen, Mingling AU - Chen, Simiao AU - Cheng, Ching‐Yu AU - Cheng, Esther T W AU - Cherbuin, Nicolas AU - Chi, Gerald AU - Chichagi, Fatemeh AU - Chimed‐Ochir, Odgerel AU - Chimoriya, Ritesh AU - Ching, Patrick R AU - Chirinos-Cáceres, Jesús Lorenzo AU - Chitheer, Abdulaal AU - Cho, William Chi Shing AU - Chong, Bryan AU - Chopra, Hitesh AU - Chowdhury, Rajiv AU - Christopher, Devasahayam Jesudas AU - Chu, Dinh‐Toi AU - Chukwu, Isaac Sunday AU - Chung, Eric AU - Chung, Sheng‐Chia AU - Chutiyami, Muhammad AU - Cioffi, Iolanda AU - Cogen, Rebecca M AU - Cohen, Aaron AU - Columbus, Alyssa AU - Conde, João AU - Corlăteanu, Alexandru AU - Cortese, Samuele AU - Cortesi, Paolo Angelo AU - Costa, Vera Marisa AU - Costanzo, Simona AU - Criqui, Michael H. AU - Cruz, Jessica A AU - Martins, Natália Alves AU - Culbreth, Garland T AU - Silva, Alanna Gomes da AU - Dadras, Omid AU - Dai, Xiaochen AU - Dai, Zhaoli AU - Daikwo, Patience Unekwuojo AU - Dalli, Lachlan L. AU - Damiani, Giovanni Battista AU - D’Amico, Emanuele AU - D’Anna, Lucio AU - Darwesh, Aso Mohammad AU - Das, Jai K AU - Das, Subasish AU - Dash, Nihar Ranjan AU - Dashti, Mohsen AU - Dávila-Cervantes, Claudio Alberto AU - Weaver, Nicole Davis AU - Daviţoiu, Dragoş Virgil AU - Hoz, Fernando de la AU - Torre‐Luque, Alejandro de la AU - Leo, Diego De AU - Debopadhaya, Shayom AU - Degenhardt, Louisa J AU - Bo’, Cristian Del AU - Delgado‐Enciso, Iván AU - Delgado-Saborit, Juana María AU - Demoze, Chalachew Kassaw AU - Denova‐Gutiérrez, Edgar AU - Dervenis, Nikolaos AU - Dervišević, Emina AU - Desai, Hardik Dineshbhai AU - Desai, Rupak AU - Devanbu, Vinoth Gnana Chellaiyan AU - Dewan, Syed Masudur Rahman AU - Dhali, Arkadeep AU - Dhama, Kuldeep AU - Dhane, Amol S. AU - Dhimal, Mandira Lamichhane AU - Dhimal, Meghnath AU - Dhingra, Sameer AU - Dhulipala, Vishal R. AU - Dhungana, Raja Ram AU - Silva, Diana Dias da AU - Díaz, Daniel AU - Díaz, Luis Antonio AU - Diaz, Michael Joseph AU - Dima, Adriana AU - Ding, Delaney D AU - Dinu, Monica AU - Djalalinia, Shirin AU - Do, Thanh Chi AU - Do, Thao Huynh Phuong AU - Prado, Camila Bruneli do AU - Dodangeh, Masoud AU - Dohare, Sushil AU - Dokova, Klara Georgieva AU - Dong, Wanyue AU - Dongarwar, Deepa AU - D’Oria, Mario AU - Dorostkar, Fariba AU - Dorsey, E. Ray AU - Doshi, Rajkumar Prakashbhai AU - Doshmangir, Leila AU - Dowou, Robert Kokou AU - Driscoll, Tim AU - Dsouza, Ashel Chelsea AU - Dsouza, Haneil Larson AU - Dumith, Samuel Carvalho AU - Duncan, Bruce Bartholow AU - Durães, André Rodrigues AU - Duraisamy, Senbagam AU - Dushpanova, Anar AU - Dzianach, Paulina Agnieszka AU - Dziedzic, Arkadiusz Marian AU - Ebrahimi, Alireza AU - Echieh, Chidiebere Peter AU - Ed‐Dra, Abdelaziz AU - Edinur, Hisham Atan AU - Edvardsson, David Jan AU - Edvardsson, Kristina AU - Efendi, Ferry AU - Eftekharimehrabad, Aziz AU - Eini, Ebrahim AU - Ekholuenetale, Michael AU - Ekundayo, Temitope Cyrus AU - Arab, Rabie Adel El AU - Zaki, Maysaa El Sayed AU - El‐Dahiyat, Faris AU - Elemam, Noha Mousaad AU - Elgar, Frank J. AU - ElGohary, Ghada Metwally Tawfik AU - Elhabashy, Hala Rashad AU - Elhadi, Muhammed AU - Elmehrath, Ahmed Osama AU - Meligy, Omar El AU - Elshaer, Mohammed Youssef Saad AU - Elsohaby, Ibrahim AU - Emeto, Theophilus I. AU - Esfandiari, Negin AU - Eshrati, Babak AU - Eslami, Majid AU - Esmaeili, Sayed Vahid AU - Estep, Kara AU - Etaee, Farshid AU - Fabin, Natalia AU - Fagbamigbe, Adeniyi Francis AU - Fagbule, Omotayo Francis AU - Fahimi, Saman AU - Falzone, Luca AU - Fareed, Mohammad AU - Farinha, Carla Sofia e Sá AU - Faris, MoezAlIslam E. AU - Faris, Pawan Sirwan AU - Faro, André AU - Fasina, Folorunso O. AU - Fatehizadeh, Ali AU - Fauk, Nelsensius Klau AU - Fazylov, Timur AU - Feigin, Valery L. AU - Feng, Xiaoqi AU - Fereshtehnejad, Seyed‐Mohammad AU - Feroze, Abdullah Hamid AU - Ferrara, Pietro AU - Ferrari, Alize J AU - Ferreira, Nuno Bravo AU - Fetensa, Getahun AU - Feyisa, Bikila Regassa AU - Filip, Irina AU - Fischer, Florian AU - Fitriana, Ida AU - Flavel, Joanne AU - Flohr, Carsten AU - Flood, David AU - Flor, Luísa Sório AU - Foigt, Nataliya A AU - Foláyan, Morẹ́nikẹ́ Oluwátóyìn AU - Force, Lisa M AU - Fortuna, Daniela AU - Foschi, Matteo AU - Franklin, Richard Charles AU - Freitas, Alberto AU - Friedman, Sara D AU - Fux, Blima AU - Sridevi, G AU - Gaál, Péter AU - Gaihre, Santosh AU - Gajdács, Márió AU - Galali, Yaseen AU - Gallus, Silvano AU - Gandhi, Aravind P. AU - Ganesan, Balasankar AU - Ganiyani, Mohammad Arfat AU - Garcia, Vanessa AU - Gardner, William M. AU - Garg, Ravindra Kumar AU - Gautam, Rupesh Kumar AU - Gebru, Tilaye AU - Gebregergis, Miglas Welay AU - Gebrehiwot, Mesfin AU - Gebremariam, Tesfay Brhane AU - Gebremeskel, Teferi Gebru AU - Gerema, Urge AU - Getacher, Lemma AU - Getahun, Genanew Kassie AU - Getie, Molla AU - Ghadirian, Fataneh AU - Ghafarian, Sadegh AU - Jolfayi, Amir Ghaffari AU - Ghailan, Khalid Yaser AU - Ghajar, Alireza AU - Ghasemi, Mohammad‐Reza AU - Dabaghi, Ghazal Ghasempour AU - Ghasemzadeh, Afsaneh AU - Ghassemi, Fariba AU - Ghazy, Ramy Mohamed AU - Gholami, Ali AU - Gholamrezanezhad, Ali AU - Gholizadeh, Nasim AU - Ghorbani, Mahsa AU - Gil, Artyom Urievich AU - Gil, Gabriela AU - Gilbertson, Nora M AU - Gill, Paramjit Singh AU - Gill, Tiffany K. AU - Gindaba, Ebisa Zerihun AU - Girmay, Alem AU - Glasbey, James C AU - Gnedovskaya, Elena V. AU - Göbölös, László AU - Godinho, Myron Anthony AU - Goel, Amit AU - Golechha, Mahaveer AU - Goleij, Pouya AU - Golinelli, Davide AU - Gomes, Nelson G. M. AU - Gopalani, Sameer Vali AU - Gorini, Giuseppe AU - Goudarzi, Houman AU - Goulart, Alessandra Carvalho AU - Gouravani, Mahdi AU - Goyal, Anmol AU - Graham, Simon Matthew AU - Grivna, Michal AU - Grosso, Giuseppe AU - Guan, Shi‐Yang AU - Guarducci, Giovanni AU - Gubari, Mohammed Ibrahim Mohialdeen AU - Guha, Avirup AU - Guicciardi, Stefano AU - Gulati, Snigdha AU - Gulisashvili, David AU - Gunawardane, Damitha Asanga AU - Guo, Cui AU - Gupta, Anish Kumar AU - Gupta, Bhawna AU - Gupta, Mohak AU - Gupta, Rahul AU - Gupta, Rajat Das AU - Gupta, Rajeev AU - Gupta, Sapna AU - Gupta, Veer Bala AU - Gupta, Vijai Kumar AU - Gupta, Vivek AU - Habibzadeh, Farrokh AU - Habibzadeh, Parham AU - Hadaro, Tesfahun Simon AU - Hadian, Zahra AU - Haep, Nils AU - Haghi‐Aminjan, Hamed AU - Haghmorad, Dariush AU - Hagins, Hailey AU - Haile, Demewoz AU - Hailu, Alemayehu AU - Ali, Adel Hajj AU - Halboub, Esam Saleh AU - Halimi, Aram AU - Hall, Brian James AU - Haller, Sebastian AU - Halwani, Rabih AU - Hamadeh, Randah R AU - Hamdy, Nadia Μ. AU - Hameed, Sajid AU - Hamidi, Samer AU - Hammoud, Ahmad AU - Hanif, Asif AU - Hanifi, Nasrin AU - Haq, Zaim Anan AU - Haque, Md Rabiul AU - Harapan, Harapan AU - Hargono, Arief AU - Haro, Josep Maria AU - Hasaballah, Ahmed I AU - Hasan, Ikramul AU - Hasan, Mohammad Jahid AU - Hasan, S M Mahmudul AU - Hasani, Hamidreza AU - Hasanian, Mohammad AU - Hashmeh, Nadim AU - Hasnain, Md Saquib AU - Hassan, Amr AU - Hassan, Ikrama AU - Tabatabaei, Mahgol Sadat Hassan Zadeh AU - Hassani, Shokoufeh AU - Hassanipour, Soheil AU - Hassankhani, Hadi AU - Haubold, Johannes AU - Havmoeller, Rasmus J. AU - Hay, Simon Iain AU - Hébert, Jeffrey J. AU - Hegazi, Omar E AU - Yohannes, Tadele AU - Heidari, Golnaz AU - Heidari, Mohammad AU - Helfer, Bartosz AU - Hemmati, Mehdi AU - Henson, Claire A AU - Herbert, Molly E AU - Herţeliu, Claudiu AU - Heuer, Austin AU - Hezam, Kamal AU - Hinneh, Thomas Kwadwo AU - Hiraike, Yuta AU - Hoan, Nguyen Quoc AU - Holla, Ramesh AU - Hon, Julia AU - Hoque, Mohammad Enamul AU - Horita, Nobuyuki AU - Hossain, Sahadat AU - Hosseini, Seyed Ehsan AU - Hosseinzadeh, Hassan AU - Hosseinzadeh, Mehdi AU - Hostiuc, Mihaela AU - Hostiuc, Sorin AU - Hoven, Hanno AU - Hsaïri, Mohamed AU - Hsu, Johnathan M AU - Hu, Chengxi AU - Huang, Junjie AU - Huda, Md. Nazmul AU - Hulland, Erin N. AU - Hultström, Michael AU - Hushmandi, Kiavash AU - Hussain, Javid AU - Hussein, Nawfal Rasheed AU - Huynh, Chantal K AU - Huynh, Hong-Han AU - Ibitoye, Segun Emmanuel AU - Idowu, Oluwatope Olaniyi AU - Ihler, Audrey L AU - Ikeda, Nayu AU - Ikuta, Kevin Shunji AU - Ilesanmi, Olayinka Stephen AU - Ilić, Irena AU - Ilić, Milena AU - Imam, Mohammad Tarique AU - Immurana, Mustapha AU - Inbaraj, Leeberk Raja AU - Irham, Lalu Muhammad AU - Isa, Mustafa Alhaji AU - Islam, Md. Rabiul AU - Ismail, Faisal AU - Ismail, Nahlah Elkudssiah AU - Iso, Hiroyasu AU - Isola, Gaetano AU - Iwagami, Masao AU - Iwu, Chidozie C D AU - Iwu, Chinwe Juliana AU - Vinothini, J AU - Jaafari, Jalil AU - Jacob, Louis AU - Jacobsen, Kathryn H. AU - Jadidi‐Niaragh, Farhad AU - Jahankhani, Kasra AU - Jahanmehr, Nader AU - Jahrami, Haitham AU - Jain, Akhil AU - Jain, Nityanand AU - Jairoun, Ammar Abdulrahman AU - Jaiswal, Abhishek AU - Jakovljević, Mihajlo AU - Yengejeh, Reza Jalilzadeh AU - Jamora, Roland Dominic G. AU - Jatau, Abubakar Ibrahim AU - Javadov, Sabzali AU - Javaheri, Tahereh AU - Jayaram, Shubha AU - Jeganathan, Jayakumar AU - Jeswani, Bijay Mukesh AU - Jiang, Heng Bo AU - Johnson, Catherine Owens AU - Jokar, Mohammad AU - Jomehzadeh, Nabi AU - Jonas, Jost Bruno AU - Joó, Tamás AU - Joseph, Abel A. AU - Joseph, Nitin AU - Joshi, Vivek AU - Joshua, Charity Ehimwenma AU - Jozwiak, Jacek Jerzy AU - Jürisson, Mikk AU - Kaambwa, Billingsley AU - Kabir, Ali AU - Kabir, Zubair AU - Kadashetti, Vidya AU - Kahn, Ethan M AU - Kalani, Rizwan AU - Kaliyadan, Feroze AU - Kalra, Sanjay AU - Kamath, Rajesh AU - Kanagasabai, Thanigaivelan AU - Kanchan, Tanuj AU - Kandel, Himal AU - Kanmiki, Edmund Wedam AU - Kanmodi, Kehinde Kazeem AU - Kansal, Sushil Kumar AU - Kapner, Daniel John AU - Kapoor, Neeti AU - Karagiannidis, Efstratios AU - Karajizadeh, Mehrdad AU - Karakasis, Paschalis AU - Karanth, Shama D. AU - Karaye, Ibraheem M. 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AU - Kesse‐Guyot, Emmanuelle AU - Khader, Yousef Saleh AU - Khafaie, Morteza Abdullatif AU - Khajuria, Himanshu AU - Khalaji, Amirmohammad AU - Khalil, Mariam AU - Khalilian, Alireza AU - Khamesipour, Faham AU - Khan, Asaduzzaman AU - Khan, Md Nuruzzaman AU - Khan, Maseer AU - Khan, Mohammad Jobair AU - Khan, Moien AB AU - Khanmohammadi, Shaghayegh AU - Khatab, Khaled AU - Khatatbeh, Haitham AU - Khatatbeh, Moawiah Mohammad AU - Khatib, Mahalaqua Nazli AU - Khavandegar, Armin AU - Kashani, Hamid Reza Khayat AU - Khidri, Feriha Fatima AU - Khodadoust, Elaheh AU - Khormali, Moein AU - Khorrami, Zahra AU - Khosla, Atulya Aman AU - Khosrowjerdi, Mahmood AU - Khreis, Haneen AU - Khusun, Helda AU - Kifle, Zemene Demelash AU - Kim, Kwanghyun AU - Kim, Min Seo AU - Kim, Yun Jin AU - Kimokoti, Ruth W AU - Kısa, Adnan AU - Kısa, Sezer AU - Knibbs, Luke D. 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