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Emma L. Nichols, Jaimie D Steinmetz, Stein Emil Vollset, Kai Glenn Fukutaki, Julian Chalek, Foad Abd-Allah, Amir Abdoli, Ahmed Abualhasan, Eman Abu‐Gharbieh, Tayyaba Akram and 254 more
BACKGROUND: Given the projected trends in population ageing and population growth, the number of people with dementia is expected to increase. In addition, strong evidence has emerged supporting the importance of potentially modifiable risk factors for dementia. Characterising the distribution and magnitude of anticipated growth is crucial for public health planning and resource prioritisation. This study aimed to improve on previous forecasts of dementia prevalence by producing country-level estimates and incorporating information on selected risk factors. METHODS: We forecasted the prevalence of dementia attributable to the three dementia risk factors included in the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 (high body-mass index, high fasting plasma glucose, and smoking) from 2019 to 2050, using relative risks and forecasted risk factor prevalence to predict GBD risk-attributable prevalence in 2050 globally and by world region and country. Using linear regression models with education included as an additional predictor, we then forecasted the prevalence of dementia not attributable to GBD risks. To assess the relative contribution of future trends in GBD risk factors, education, population growth, and population ageing, we did a decomposition analysis. FINDINGS: We estimated that the number of people with dementia would increase from 57·4 (95% uncertainty interval 50·4-65·1) million cases globally in 2019 to 152·8 (130·8-175·9) million cases in 2050. Despite large increases in the projected number of people living with dementia, age-standardised both-sex prevalence remained stable between 2019 and 2050 (global percentage change of 0·1% [-7·5 to 10·8]). We estimated that there were more women with dementia than men with dementia globally in 2019 (female-to-male ratio of 1·69 [1·64-1·73]), and we expect this pattern to continue to 2050 (female-to-male ratio of 1·67 [1·52-1·85]). There was geographical heterogeneity in the projected increases across countries and regions, with the smallest percentage changes in the number of projected dementia cases in high-income Asia Pacific (53% [41-67]) and western Europe (74% [58-90]), and the largest in north Africa and the Middle East (367% [329-403]) and eastern sub-Saharan Africa (357% [323-395]). Projected increases in cases could largely be attributed to population growth and population ageing, although their relative importance varied by world region, with population growth contributing most to the increases in sub-Saharan Africa and population ageing contributing most to the increases in east Asia. INTERPRETATION: Growth in the number of individuals living with dementia underscores the need for public health planning efforts and policy to address the needs of this group. Country-level estimates can be used to inform national planning efforts and decisions. Multifaceted approaches, including scaling up interventions to address modifiable risk factors and investing in research on biological mechanisms, will be key in addressing the expected increases in the number of individuals affected by dementia. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and Gates Ventures.
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Nichols, E. L., Steinmetz, J. D., Vollset, S. E., Fukutaki, K. G., Chalek, J., Abd-Allah, F., Abdoli, A., Abualhasan, A., Abu‐Gharbieh, E., Akram, T., Hamad, H. K. A., Alahdab, F., Alanezi, F., Alipour, V., Almustanyir, S., Amu, H., Ansari, I., Arabloo, J., Ashraf, T., … Vos, T. (2022). Estimation of the global prevalence of dementia in 2019 and forecasted prevalence in 2050: an analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. The Lancet Public Health, 7(2), e105–e125. https://doi.org/10.1016/s2468-2667(21)00249-8
Nichols, Emma L., et al. "Estimation of the global prevalence of dementia in 2019 and forecasted prevalence in 2050: an analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019." The Lancet Public Health, vol. 7, no. 2, 2022, pp. e105–e125, https://doi.org/10.1016/s2468-2667(21)00249-8.
Nichols, Emma L., Jaimie D Steinmetz, Stein Emil Vollset, Kai Glenn Fukutaki, Julian Chalek, Foad Abd-Allah, Amir Abdoli, et al. "Estimation of the global prevalence of dementia in 2019 and forecasted prevalence in 2050: an analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019." The Lancet Public Health 7, no. 2 (2022): e105–e125. https://doi.org/10.1016/s2468-2667(21)00249-8.
Nichols E. L., Steinmetz J. D., Vollset S. E. [и др.] Estimation of the global prevalence of dementia in 2019 and forecasted prevalence in 2050: an analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 // The Lancet Public Health. — 2022. — Vol. 7, № 2. — P. e105–e125. — URL: https://doi.org/10.1016/s2468-2667(21)00249-8
@article{nichols2022estimation,
title = {{Estimation of the global prevalence of dementia in 2019 and forecasted prevalence in 2050: an analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019}},
author = {Emma L. Nichols and Jaimie D Steinmetz and Stein Emil Vollset and Kai Glenn Fukutaki and Julian Chalek and Foad Abd-Allah and Amir Abdoli and Ahmed Abualhasan and Eman Abu‐Gharbieh and Tayyaba Akram and Hanadi Khamis Al Hamad and Fares Alahdab and Fahad Alanezi and Vahid Alipour and Sami Almustanyir and Hubert Amu and Iman Ansari and Jalal Arabloo and Tahira Ashraf and Thomas Astell‐Burt and Getinet Ayano and José Luís Ayuso‐Mateos and Atif Amin Baig and Anthony H Barnett and Amadou Barrow and Bernhard T. Baune and Yannick Béjot and Woldesellassie M Mequanint Bezabhe and Yihienew Mequanint Bezabih and Akshaya Srikanth Bhagavathula and Sonu M. M. Bhaskar and Krittika Bhattacharyya and Ali Bijani and Atanu Biswas and Srinivasa Rao Bolla and Archith Boloor and Carol Brayne and Hermann Brenner and Katrin Gabriele Burkart and Richard Andrew Burns and Luis Alberto Cámera and Chao Cao and Félix Dias Carvalho and Luís Fernando Silva Castro-de-Araujo and Ferrán Catalá-López and Ester Cerin and Prachi P. Chavan and Nicolas Cherbuin and Dinh‐Toi Chu and Vera Marisa Costa and Rosa A S Couto and Omid Dadras and Xiaochen Dai and Lalit Dandona and Rakhi Dandona and Vanessa Vianey De la Cruz-Góngora and Deepak Dhamnetiya and Diana Dias da Silva and Daniel Díaz and Abdel Douiri and David Jan Edvardsson and Michael Ekholuenetale and Iman El Sayed and Shaimaa Ibrahim El-Jaafary and Khalil Eskandari and Sharareh Eskandarieh and Saman Esmaeilnejad and Jawad Fares and André Faro and Umar Farooque and Valery L. Feigin and Xiaoqi Feng and Seyed‐Mohammad Fereshtehnejad and Eduarda G. R. Fernandes and Pietro Ferrara and Irina Filip and Howard M Fillit and Florian Fischer and Shilpa Gaidhane and Lucia Galluzzo and Ahmad Ghashghaee and Nermin Mahmoud Mohammed Ghith and Alessandro Gialluisi and Syed Amir Gilani and Ionela-Roxana Glăvan and Elena V. Gnedovskaya and Mahaveer Golechha and Rajeev Gupta and Veer Bala Gupta and Vivek Gupta and Mohammad Rifat Haider and Brian James Hall and Samer Hamidi and Asif Hanif and Graeme J. Hankey and Shafiul Haque and Risky Kusuma Hartono and Ahmed I Hasaballah and M. Tasdik Hasan and Amr Hassan and Simon Iain Hay and Khezar Hayat and Mohamed I. Hegazy and Golnaz Heidari and Reza Heidari‐Soureshjani and Claudiu Herţeliu and Mowafa Said Househ and Rabia Hussain and Bing‐Fang Hwang and Licia Iacoviello and Ivo Iavicoli and Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi and Irena Ilić and Milena Ilić and Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani and Hiroyasu Iso and Masao Iwagami and Roxana Jabbarinejad and Louis Jacob and Vardhmaan Jain and Sathish Kumar Jayapal and Ranil Jayawardena and Ravi Prakash Jha and Jost Bruno Jonas and Nitin Joseph and Rizwan Kalani and Amit Kandel and Himal Kandel and André Karch and Ayele Semachew Kasa and Gizat Molla Kassie and Pedram Keshavarz and Moien AB Khan and Mahalaqua Nazli Khatib and Tawfik A M Khoja and Jagdish Khubchandani and Min Seo Kim and Yun Jin Kim and Adnan Kısa and Sezer Kısa and Mika Kivimaki B and Walter J. Koroshetz and Ai Koyanagi and G Anil Kumar and Manasi Kumar and Hassan Mehmood Lak and Matilde Leonardi and Bingyu Li and Stephen S Lim and Xuefeng Liu and Yuewei Liu and Giancarlo Logroscino and Stefan Lorkowski A and Giancarlo Lucchetti and Ricardo Lutzky Saute and Francesca Giulia Magnani and Ahmad Azam Malik and João Massano and Man Mohan Mehndiratta and Ritesh George Menezes and Atte Meretoja and Bahram Mohajer and Norlinah Mohamed Ibrahim and Yousef M. Mohammad and Arif Ahmed Mohammed and Ali H. Mokdad and Stefania Mondello and Mohammad Ali Moni and Md Moniruzzaman and Tilahun Belete Mossie and Gabriele Nagel and Muhammad Naveed and Vinod C Nayak and Sandhya Neupane Kandel and Trang Huyen Nguyen and Bogdan Oancea and Nikita S. Otstavnov and Stanislav S Otstavnov and Mayowa Ojo Owolabi and Songhomitra Panda‐Jonas and Fatemeh Pashazadeh Kan and Maja Pasovic and Urvish K. Patel and Mona Pathak and Mário Fernando Prieto Peres and Arokiasamy Perianayagam and Carrie B Peterson and Michael R Phillips and Marina Pinheiro and М. А. Пирадов and Dimity C Pond and Michele H. Potashman and Faheem Hyder Pottoo and Sergio I. Prada and Amir Radfar and Alberto Raggi and Fakher Rahim and Mosiur Rahman and Pradhum Ram and Priyanga Diloshini Ranasinghe and David Laith Rawaf and Salman Rawaf and Nima Rezaei and Aziz Rezapour and Stephen R. Robinson and Michele Romoli and Gholamreza Roshandel and Ramesh Sahathevan and Amirhossein Sahebkar and Mohammad Ali Sahraian and Brijesh Sathian and Davide Sattin and Monika S. Sawhney and Mete Şaylan and Silvia Schiavolin and Allen Seylani and Feng Sha and Masood Ali Shaikh and KS Shaji and Mohammed Shannawaz and Jeevan K. Shetty and Mika Shigematsu and Jae Il Shin and Rahman Shiri and Diego Augusto Santos Silva and João Pedro Silva and Renata Silva and Jasvinder A. Singh and Valentin Yurievich Skryabin and Anna Aleksandrovna Skryabina and Amanda Elizabeth Smith and Sergey S Soshnikov and Emma Elizabeth Spurlock and Dan Joseph Stein and Jing Sun and Rafael Tabarés‐Seisdedos and Bhaskar Thakur and Binod Timalsina and Marcos Roberto Tovani‐Palone and Bach Xuan Tran and Gebiyaw Wudie Tsegaye and Sahel Valadan Tahbaz and Pascual Ruben Valdez and Narayanaswamy Venketasubramanian and Vasily Vlassov and Giang Thu Vu and Linh Gia Vu and Yuan‐Pang Wang and Anders B. Wimo and Andrea Sylvia Winkler and Lalit Yadav and Seyed Hossein Yahyazadeh Jabbari and Kazumasa Yamagishi and Lin Yang and Yuichiro Yano and Naohiro Yonemoto and Chuanhua Yu and Ismaeel U. Yunusa and Siddhesh Zadey and Михаил Сергеевич Застрожин and Anasthasia Zastrozhina and Zhi-Jiang Zhang and Christopher J L Murray and Theo Vos},
journal = {The Lancet Public Health},
year = {2022},
volume = {7},
number = {2},
pages = {e105--e125},
doi = {10.1016/s2468-2667(21)00249-8},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/s2468-2667(21)00249-8}
}TY - JOUR AU - Nichols, Emma L. AU - Steinmetz, Jaimie D AU - Vollset, Stein Emil AU - Fukutaki, Kai Glenn AU - Chalek, Julian AU - Abd-Allah, Foad AU - Abdoli, Amir AU - Abualhasan, Ahmed AU - Abu‐Gharbieh, Eman AU - Akram, Tayyaba AU - Hamad, Hanadi Khamis Al AU - Alahdab, Fares AU - Alanezi, Fahad AU - Alipour, Vahid AU - Almustanyir, Sami AU - Amu, Hubert AU - Ansari, Iman AU - Arabloo, Jalal AU - Ashraf, Tahira AU - Astell‐Burt, Thomas AU - Ayano, Getinet AU - Ayuso‐Mateos, José Luís AU - Baig, Atif Amin AU - Barnett, Anthony H AU - Barrow, Amadou AU - Baune, Bernhard T. AU - Béjot, Yannick AU - Bezabhe, Woldesellassie M Mequanint AU - Bezabih, Yihienew Mequanint AU - Bhagavathula, Akshaya Srikanth AU - Bhaskar, Sonu M. M. AU - Bhattacharyya, Krittika AU - Bijani, Ali AU - Biswas, Atanu AU - Bolla, Srinivasa Rao AU - Boloor, Archith AU - Brayne, Carol AU - Brenner, Hermann AU - Burkart, Katrin Gabriele AU - Burns, Richard Andrew AU - Cámera, Luis Alberto AU - Cao, Chao AU - Carvalho, Félix Dias AU - Castro-de-Araujo, Luís Fernando Silva AU - Catalá-López, Ferrán AU - Cerin, Ester AU - Chavan, Prachi P. AU - Cherbuin, Nicolas AU - Chu, Dinh‐Toi AU - Costa, Vera Marisa AU - Couto, Rosa A S AU - Dadras, Omid AU - Dai, Xiaochen AU - Dandona, Lalit AU - Dandona, Rakhi AU - Cruz-Góngora, Vanessa Vianey De la AU - Dhamnetiya, Deepak AU - Silva, Diana Dias da AU - Díaz, Daniel AU - Douiri, Abdel AU - Edvardsson, David Jan AU - Ekholuenetale, Michael AU - Sayed, Iman El AU - El-Jaafary, Shaimaa Ibrahim AU - Eskandari, Khalil AU - Eskandarieh, Sharareh AU - Esmaeilnejad, Saman AU - Fares, Jawad AU - Faro, André AU - Farooque, Umar AU - Feigin, Valery L. AU - Feng, Xiaoqi AU - Fereshtehnejad, Seyed‐Mohammad AU - Fernandes, Eduarda G. R. AU - Ferrara, Pietro AU - Filip, Irina AU - Fillit, Howard M AU - Fischer, Florian AU - Gaidhane, Shilpa AU - Galluzzo, Lucia AU - Ghashghaee, Ahmad AU - Ghith, Nermin Mahmoud Mohammed AU - Gialluisi, Alessandro AU - Gilani, Syed Amir AU - Glăvan, Ionela-Roxana AU - Gnedovskaya, Elena V. AU - Golechha, Mahaveer AU - Gupta, Rajeev AU - Gupta, Veer Bala AU - Gupta, Vivek AU - Haider, Mohammad Rifat AU - Hall, Brian James AU - Hamidi, Samer AU - Hanif, Asif AU - Hankey, Graeme J. AU - Haque, Shafiul AU - Hartono, Risky Kusuma AU - Hasaballah, Ahmed I AU - Hasan, M. Tasdik AU - Hassan, Amr AU - Hay, Simon Iain AU - Hayat, Khezar AU - Hegazy, Mohamed I. AU - Heidari, Golnaz AU - Heidari‐Soureshjani, Reza AU - Herţeliu, Claudiu AU - Househ, Mowafa Said AU - Hussain, Rabia AU - Hwang, Bing‐Fang AU - Iacoviello, Licia AU - Iavicoli, Ivo AU - Ilesanmi, Olayinka Stephen AU - Ilić, Irena AU - Ilić, Milena AU - Irvani, Seyed Sina Naghibi AU - Iso, Hiroyasu AU - Iwagami, Masao AU - Jabbarinejad, Roxana AU - Jacob, Louis AU - Jain, Vardhmaan AU - Jayapal, Sathish Kumar AU - Jayawardena, Ranil AU - Jha, Ravi Prakash AU - Jonas, Jost Bruno AU - Joseph, Nitin AU - Kalani, Rizwan AU - Kandel, Amit AU - Kandel, Himal AU - Karch, André AU - Kasa, Ayele Semachew AU - Kassie, Gizat Molla AU - Keshavarz, Pedram AU - Khan, Moien AB AU - Khatib, Mahalaqua Nazli AU - Khoja, Tawfik A M AU - Khubchandani, Jagdish AU - Kim, Min Seo AU - Kim, Yun Jin AU - Kısa, Adnan AU - Kısa, Sezer AU - B, Mika Kivimaki AU - Koroshetz, Walter J. AU - Koyanagi, Ai AU - Kumar, G Anil AU - Kumar, Manasi AU - Lak, Hassan Mehmood AU - Leonardi, Matilde AU - Li, Bingyu AU - Lim, Stephen S AU - Liu, Xuefeng AU - Liu, Yuewei AU - Logroscino, Giancarlo AU - A, Stefan Lorkowski AU - Lucchetti, Giancarlo AU - Saute, Ricardo Lutzky AU - Magnani, Francesca Giulia AU - Malik, Ahmad Azam AU - Massano, João AU - Mehndiratta, Man Mohan AU - Menezes, Ritesh George AU - Meretoja, Atte AU - Mohajer, Bahram AU - Ibrahim, Norlinah Mohamed AU - Mohammad, Yousef M. AU - Mohammed, Arif Ahmed AU - Mokdad, Ali H. AU - Mondello, Stefania AU - Moni, Mohammad Ali AU - Moniruzzaman, Md AU - Mossie, Tilahun Belete AU - Nagel, Gabriele AU - Naveed, Muhammad AU - Nayak, Vinod C AU - Kandel, Sandhya Neupane AU - Nguyen, Trang Huyen AU - Oancea, Bogdan AU - Otstavnov, Nikita S. AU - Otstavnov, Stanislav S AU - Owolabi, Mayowa Ojo AU - Panda‐Jonas, Songhomitra AU - Kan, Fatemeh Pashazadeh AU - Pasovic, Maja AU - Patel, Urvish K. AU - Pathak, Mona AU - Peres, Mário Fernando Prieto AU - Perianayagam, Arokiasamy AU - Peterson, Carrie B AU - Phillips, Michael R AU - Pinheiro, Marina AU - Пирадов, М. А. AU - Pond, Dimity C AU - Potashman, Michele H. AU - Pottoo, Faheem Hyder AU - Prada, Sergio I. AU - Radfar, Amir AU - Raggi, Alberto AU - Rahim, Fakher AU - Rahman, Mosiur AU - Ram, Pradhum AU - Ranasinghe, Priyanga Diloshini AU - Rawaf, David Laith AU - Rawaf, Salman AU - Rezaei, Nima AU - Rezapour, Aziz AU - Robinson, Stephen R. AU - Romoli, Michele AU - Roshandel, Gholamreza AU - Sahathevan, Ramesh AU - Sahebkar, Amirhossein AU - Sahraian, Mohammad Ali AU - Sathian, Brijesh AU - Sattin, Davide AU - Sawhney, Monika S. AU - Şaylan, Mete AU - Schiavolin, Silvia AU - Seylani, Allen AU - Sha, Feng AU - Shaikh, Masood Ali AU - Shaji, KS AU - Shannawaz, Mohammed AU - Shetty, Jeevan K. AU - Shigematsu, Mika AU - Shin, Jae Il AU - Shiri, Rahman AU - Silva, Diego Augusto Santos AU - Silva, João Pedro AU - Silva, Renata AU - Singh, Jasvinder A. AU - Skryabin, Valentin Yurievich AU - Skryabina, Anna Aleksandrovna AU - Smith, Amanda Elizabeth AU - Soshnikov, Sergey S AU - Spurlock, Emma Elizabeth AU - Stein, Dan Joseph AU - Sun, Jing AU - Tabarés‐Seisdedos, Rafael AU - Thakur, Bhaskar AU - Timalsina, Binod AU - Tovani‐Palone, Marcos Roberto AU - Tran, Bach Xuan AU - Tsegaye, Gebiyaw Wudie AU - Tahbaz, Sahel Valadan AU - Valdez, Pascual Ruben AU - Venketasubramanian, Narayanaswamy AU - Vlassov, Vasily AU - Vu, Giang Thu AU - Vu, Linh Gia AU - Wang, Yuan‐Pang AU - Wimo, Anders B. AU - Winkler, Andrea Sylvia AU - Yadav, Lalit AU - Jabbari, Seyed Hossein Yahyazadeh AU - Yamagishi, Kazumasa AU - Yang, Lin AU - Yano, Yuichiro AU - Yonemoto, Naohiro AU - Yu, Chuanhua AU - Yunusa, Ismaeel U. AU - Zadey, Siddhesh AU - Застрожин, Михаил Сергеевич AU - Zastrozhina, Anasthasia AU - Zhang, Zhi-Jiang AU - Murray, Christopher J L AU - Vos, Theo TI - Estimation of the global prevalence of dementia in 2019 and forecasted prevalence in 2050: an analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 JO - The Lancet Public Health VL - 7 IS - 2 SP - e105 EP - e125 PY - 2022 DA - 2022/01/06 DO - 10.1016/s2468-2667(21)00249-8 UR - https://doi.org/10.1016/s2468-2667(21)00249-8 ER -
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