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Qi Zhao, Yuming Guo, Yue Leon Guo, Tingting Ye, Antonio Gasparrini, Shilu Tong, Ala V. Overcenco, Aleš Urban, Alexandra Schneider, Alireza Entezari and 60 more
BACKGROUND: Exposure to cold or hot temperatures is associated with premature deaths. We aimed to evaluate the global, regional, and national mortality burden associated with non-optimal ambient temperatures. METHODS: In this modelling study, we collected time-series data on mortality and ambient temperatures from 750 locations in 43 countries and five meta-predictors at a grid size of 0·5° × 0·5° across the globe. A three-stage analysis strategy was used. First, the temperature-mortality association was fitted for each location by use of a time-series regression. Second, a multivariate meta-regression model was built between location-specific estimates and meta-predictors. Finally, the grid-specific temperature-mortality association between 2000 and 2019 was predicted by use of the fitted meta-regression and the grid-specific meta-predictors. Excess deaths due to non-optimal temperatures, the ratio between annual excess deaths and all deaths of a year (the excess death ratio), and the death rate per 100 000 residents were then calculated for each grid across the world. Grids were divided according to regional groupings of the UN Statistics Division. FINDINGS: Globally, 5 083 173 deaths (95% empirical CI [eCI] 4 087 967-5 965 520) were associated with non-optimal temperatures per year, accounting for 9·43% (95% eCI 7·58-11·07) of all deaths (8·52% [6·19-10·47] were cold-related and 0·91% [0·56-1·36] were heat-related). There were 74 temperature-related excess deaths per 100 000 residents (95% eCI 60-87). The mortality burden varied geographically. Of all excess deaths, 2 617 322 (51·49%) occurred in Asia. Eastern Europe had the highest heat-related excess death rate and Sub-Saharan Africa had the highest cold-related excess death rate. From 2000-03 to 2016-19, the global cold-related excess death ratio changed by -0·51 percentage points (95% eCI -0·61 to -0·42) and the global heat-related excess death ratio increased by 0·21 percentage points (0·13-0·31), leading to a net reduction in the overall ratio. The largest decline in overall excess death ratio occurred in South-eastern Asia, whereas excess death ratio fluctuated in Southern Asia and Europe. INTERPRETATION: Non-optimal temperatures are associated with a substantial mortality burden, which varies spatiotemporally. Our findings will benefit international, national, and local communities in developing preparedness and prevention strategies to reduce weather-related impacts immediately and under climate change scenarios. FUNDING: Australian Research Council and the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council.
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Zhao, Q., Guo, Y., Guo, Y. L., Ye, T., Gasparrini, A., Tong, S., Overcenco, A. V., Urban, A., Schneider, A., Entezari, A., Vicedo-Cabrera, A. M., Zanobetti, A., Analitis, A., Zeka, A., Tobı́as, A., Nunes, B., Alahmad, B., Armstrong, B., Forsberg, B., … Li, S. (2021). Global, regional, and national burden of mortality associated with non-optimal ambient temperatures from 2000 to 2019: a three-stage modelling study. The Lancet Planetary Health, 5(7), e415–e425. https://doi.org/10.1016/s2542-5196(21)00081-4
Zhao, Qi, et al. "Global, regional, and national burden of mortality associated with non-optimal ambient temperatures from 2000 to 2019: a three-stage modelling study." The Lancet Planetary Health, vol. 5, no. 7, 2021, pp. e415–e425, https://doi.org/10.1016/s2542-5196(21)00081-4.
Zhao, Qi, Yuming Guo, Yue Leon Guo, Tingting Ye, Antonio Gasparrini, Shilu Tong, Ala V. Overcenco, et al. "Global, regional, and national burden of mortality associated with non-optimal ambient temperatures from 2000 to 2019: a three-stage modelling study." The Lancet Planetary Health 5, no. 7 (2021): e415–e425. https://doi.org/10.1016/s2542-5196(21)00081-4.
Zhao Q., Guo Y., Guo Y. L. [и др.] Global, regional, and national burden of mortality associated with non-optimal ambient temperatures from 2000 to 2019: a three-stage modelling study // The Lancet Planetary Health. — 2021. — Vol. 5, № 7. — P. e415–e425. — URL: https://doi.org/10.1016/s2542-5196(21)00081-4
@article{zhao2021global,
title = {{Global, regional, and national burden of mortality associated with non-optimal ambient temperatures from 2000 to 2019: a three-stage modelling study}},
author = {Qi Zhao and Yuming Guo and Yue Leon Guo and Tingting Ye and Antonio Gasparrini and Shilu Tong and Ala V. Overcenco and Aleš Urban and Alexandra Schneider and Alireza Entezari and Ana Maria Vicedo-Cabrera and Antonella Zanobetti and Antonis Analitis and Ariana Zeka and Aurelio Tobı́as and Baltazar Nunes and Barrak Alahmad and Ben Armstrong and Bertil Forsberg and Shih-Chun Pan and Carmen Iñiguez and Caroline B. Ameling and César De la Cruz Valencia and Christofer Åström and Danny Houthuijs and Do Van Dung and Dominic Royé and Ene Indermitte and Éric Lavigne and Fatemeh Mayvaneh and Fiorella Acquaotta and Francesca Katherine de'Donato and Francesco Sera and Francesco Sera and Gabriel Carrasco‐Escobar and Haidong Kan and Hans Orru and H Kim and Iulian‐Horia Holobâcă and Jan Kyselý and Joana Madureira and Joel David Schwartz and Jouni J. K. Jaakkola and Klea Katsouyanni and Magali Hurtado Diaz and Martina S. Ragettli and Masahiro Hashizume and Mathilde Pascal and M. H. Coelho and Nicolás Valdés Ortega and Niilo Ryti and Noah Scovronick and Paola Michelozzi and Patricia Matus Correa and Patrick Goodman and Paulo Hilário Nascimento Saldiva and Rosana Abrutzky and Samuel Osorio and Shilpa Rao and Simona Fratianni and Trần Ngọc Đăng and Valentina Colistro and Veronika Huber and Whanhee Lee and Xerxes Seposo and Yasushi Honda and Yue Leon Guo and Yue Leon Guo and Michelle Lee Bell and Shanshan Li},
journal = {The Lancet Planetary Health},
year = {2021},
volume = {5},
number = {7},
pages = {e415--e425},
doi = {10.1016/s2542-5196(21)00081-4},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/s2542-5196(21)00081-4}
}TY - JOUR AU - Zhao, Qi AU - Guo, Yuming AU - Guo, Yue Leon AU - Ye, Tingting AU - Gasparrini, Antonio AU - Tong, Shilu AU - Overcenco, Ala V. AU - Urban, Aleš AU - Schneider, Alexandra AU - Entezari, Alireza AU - Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria AU - Zanobetti, Antonella AU - Analitis, Antonis AU - Zeka, Ariana AU - Tobı́as, Aurelio AU - Nunes, Baltazar AU - Alahmad, Barrak AU - Armstrong, Ben AU - Forsberg, Bertil AU - Pan, Shih-Chun AU - Iñiguez, Carmen AU - Ameling, Caroline B. AU - Valencia, César De la Cruz AU - Åström, Christofer AU - Houthuijs, Danny AU - Dung, Do Van AU - Royé, Dominic AU - Indermitte, Ene AU - Lavigne, Éric AU - Mayvaneh, Fatemeh AU - Acquaotta, Fiorella AU - de'Donato, Francesca Katherine AU - Sera, Francesco AU - Sera, Francesco AU - Carrasco‐Escobar, Gabriel AU - Kan, Haidong AU - Orru, Hans AU - Kim, H AU - Holobâcă, Iulian‐Horia AU - Kyselý, Jan AU - Madureira, Joana AU - Schwartz, Joel David AU - Jaakkola, Jouni J. K. AU - Katsouyanni, Klea AU - Diaz, Magali Hurtado AU - Ragettli, Martina S. AU - Hashizume, Masahiro AU - Pascal, Mathilde AU - Coelho, M. H. AU - Ortega, Nicolás Valdés AU - Ryti, Niilo AU - Scovronick, Noah AU - Michelozzi, Paola AU - Correa, Patricia Matus AU - Goodman, Patrick AU - Saldiva, Paulo Hilário Nascimento AU - Abrutzky, Rosana AU - Osorio, Samuel AU - Rao, Shilpa AU - Fratianni, Simona AU - Đăng, Trần Ngọc AU - Colistro, Valentina AU - Huber, Veronika AU - Lee, Whanhee AU - Seposo, Xerxes AU - Honda, Yasushi AU - Guo, Yue Leon AU - Guo, Yue Leon AU - Bell, Michelle Lee AU - Li, Shanshan TI - Global, regional, and national burden of mortality associated with non-optimal ambient temperatures from 2000 to 2019: a three-stage modelling study JO - The Lancet Planetary Health VL - 5 IS - 7 SP - e415 EP - e425 PY - 2021 DA - 2021/07/01 DO - 10.1016/s2542-5196(21)00081-4 UR - https://doi.org/10.1016/s2542-5196(21)00081-4 ER -
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