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Jaimie D Steinmetz, Garland T Culbreth, Lydia M Haile, Quinn Rafferty, Justin Lo, Kai Glenn Fukutaki, Jessica A Cruz, Amanda Elizabeth Smith, Stein Emil Vollset, Peter Brooks and 157 more
Background: Osteoarthritis is the most common form of arthritis in adults, characterised by chronic pain and loss of mobility. Osteoarthritis most frequently occurs after age 40 years and prevalence increases steeply with age. WHO has designated 2021-30 the decade of healthy ageing, which highlights the need to address diseases such as osteoarthritis, which strongly affect functional ability and quality of life. Osteoarthritis can coexist with, and negatively effect, other chronic conditions. Here we estimate the burden of hand, hip, knee, and other sites of osteoarthritis across geographies, age, sex, and time, with forecasts of prevalence to 2050. Methods: In this systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study, osteoarthritis prevalence in 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2020 was estimated using data from population-based surveys from 26 countries for knee osteoarthritis, 23 countries for hip osteoarthritis, 42 countries for hand osteoarthritis, and US insurance claims for all of the osteoarthritis sites, including the other types of osteoarthritis category. The reference case definition was symptomatic, radiographically confirmed osteoarthritis. Studies using alternative definitions from the reference case definition (for example self-reported osteoarthritis) were adjusted to reference using regression models. Osteoarthritis severity distribution was obtained from a pooled meta-analysis of sources using the Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Arthritis Index. Final prevalence estimates were multiplied by disability weights to calculate years lived with disability (YLDs). Prevalence was forecast to 2050 using a mixed-effects model. Findings: Globally, 595 million (95% uncertainty interval 535-656) people had osteoarthritis in 2020, equal to 7·6% (95% UI 6·8-8·4) of the global population, and an increase of 132·2% (130·3-134·1) in total cases since 1990. Compared with 2020, cases of osteoarthritis are projected to increase 74·9% (59·4-89·9) for knee, 48·6% (35·9-67·1) for hand, 78·6% (57·7-105·3) for hip, and 95·1% (68·1-135·0) for other types of osteoarthritis by 2050. The global age-standardised rate of YLDs for total osteoarthritis was 255·0 YLDs (119·7-557·2) per 100 000 in 2020, a 9·5% (8·6-10·1) increase from 1990 (233·0 YLDs per 100 000, 109·3-510·8). For adults aged 70 years and older, osteoarthritis was the seventh ranked cause of YLDs. Age-standardised prevalence in 2020 was more than 5·5% in all world regions, ranging from 5677·4 (5029·8-6318·1) per 100 000 in southeast Asia to 8632·7 (7852·0-9469·1) per 100 000 in high-income Asia Pacific. Knee was the most common site for osteoarthritis. High BMI contributed to 20·4% (95% UI -1·7 to 36·6) of osteoarthritis. Potentially modifiable risk factors for osteoarthritis such as recreational injury prevention and occupational hazards have not yet been explored in GBD modelling. Interpretation: Age-standardised YLDs attributable to osteoarthritis are continuing to rise and will lead to substantial increases in case numbers because of population growth and ageing, and because there is no effective cure for osteoarthritis. The demand on health systems for care of patients with osteoarthritis, including joint replacements, which are highly effective for late stage osteoarthritis in hips and knees, will rise in all regions, but might be out of reach and lead to further health inequity for individuals and countries unable to afford them. Much more can and should be done to prevent people getting to that late stage. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Institute of Bone and Joint Research, and Global Alliance for Musculoskeletal Health.
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Steinmetz, J. D., Culbreth, G. T., Haile, L. M., Rafferty, Q., Lo, J., Fukutaki, K. G., Cruz, J. A., Smith, A. E., Vollset, S. E., Brooks, P., Cross, M., Woolf, A. D., Hagins, H., Abbasi‐Kangevari, M., Abedi, A., Ackerman, I. N., Amu, H., Antony, B., Arabloo, J., … Kopec, J. A. (2023). Global, regional, and national burden of osteoarthritis, 1990–2020 and projections to 2050: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. The Lancet Rheumatology, 5(9), e508–e522. https://doi.org/10.1016/s2665-9913(23)00163-7
Steinmetz, Jaimie D, et al. "Global, regional, and national burden of osteoarthritis, 1990–2020 and projections to 2050: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021." The Lancet Rheumatology, vol. 5, no. 9, 2023, pp. e508–e522, https://doi.org/10.1016/s2665-9913(23)00163-7.
Steinmetz, Jaimie D, Garland T Culbreth, Lydia M Haile, Quinn Rafferty, Justin Lo, Kai Glenn Fukutaki, Jessica A Cruz, et al. "Global, regional, and national burden of osteoarthritis, 1990–2020 and projections to 2050: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021." The Lancet Rheumatology 5, no. 9 (2023): e508–e522. https://doi.org/10.1016/s2665-9913(23)00163-7.
Steinmetz J. D., Culbreth G. T., Haile L. M. [и др.] Global, regional, and national burden of osteoarthritis, 1990–2020 and projections to 2050: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 // The Lancet Rheumatology. — 2023. — Vol. 5, № 9. — P. e508–e522. — URL: https://doi.org/10.1016/s2665-9913(23)00163-7
@article{steinmetz2023global,
title = {{Global, regional, and national burden of osteoarthritis, 1990–2020 and projections to 2050: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021}},
author = {Jaimie D Steinmetz and Garland T Culbreth and Lydia M Haile and Quinn Rafferty and Justin Lo and Kai Glenn Fukutaki and Jessica A Cruz and Amanda Elizabeth Smith and Stein Emil Vollset and Peter Brooks and Marita Cross and Anthony D. Woolf and Hailey Hagins and Mohsen Abbasi‐Kangevari and Aidin Abedi and Ilana N. Ackerman and Hubert Amu and Benny Antony and Jalal Arabloo and Aleksandr Y. Aravkin and Ayele Mamo Argaw and Anton A Artamonov and Tahira Ashraf and Amadou Barrow and Lindsay Bearne and Isabela M. Benseñor and Alemshet Yirga Berhie and Nikha Bhardwaj and Pankaj Bhardwaj and Vijayalakshmi S Bhojaraja and Ali Bijani and Paul Svitil Briant and Andrew M. Briggs and Nadeem Shafique Butt and Jaykaran Charan and Vijay Kumar Chattu and Flavia Cicuttini and Kaleb Coberly and Omid Dadras and Xiaochen Dai and Lalit Dandona and Rakhi Dandona and Katie E. de Luca and Edgar Denova‐Gutiérrez and Samath Dhamminda Dharmaratne and Meghnath Dhimal and Mostafa Dianatinasab and Karsten E Dreinhoefer and Muhammed Elhadi and Umar Farooque and Hamid Reza Farpour and Irina Filip and Florian Fischer and Marisa Freitas and Balasankar Ganesan and Belete Negese and Tamiru Getachew and Seyyed‐Hadi Ghamari and Ahmad Ghashghaee and Tiffany K. Gill and Mahaveer Golechha and Davide Golinelli and Bhawna Gupta and Veer Bala Gupta and Vivek Gupta and Rasool Haddadi and Nima Hafezi‐Nejad and Rabih Halwani and Samer Hamidi and Asif Hanif and Netanja I. Harlianto and Josep Maria Haro and Jan Hartvigsen and Simon Iain Hay and Jeffrey J. Hébert and Golnaz Heidari and Mohammad‐Salar Hosseini and Mehdi Hosseinzadeh and Alexander Kevin Hsiao and Irena Ilić and Milena Ilić and Louis Jacob and Ranil Jayawardena and Ravi Prakash Jha and Jost Bruno Jonas and Nitin Joseph and Himal Kandel and Ibraheem M. Karaye and Mohammad Jobair Khan and Yun Jin Kim and Ali‐Asghar Kolahi and Oleksii Korzh and Rajasekaran Koteeswaran and Vijay K. Krishnamoorthy and G Anil Kumar and Narinder Kumar and Sang-woong Lee and Stephen S Lim and Stany Wilfred Lobo and Giancarlo Lucchetti and Mohammad‐Reza Malekpour and Ahmad Azam Malik and Luiz Garcia Mandarano-Filho and Santi Martini and Alexios‐Fotios A. Mentis and Mohamed Kamal Mesregah and Tomislav Meštrović and Erkin Mirsaidovich Mirrakhimov and Awoke Misganaw and Reza Mohammadpourhodki and Ali H. Mokdad and Sara Momtazmanesh and Shane Douglas Morrison and Christopher J L Murray and Hasan Nassereldine and Henok Biresaw Netsere and Sandhya Neupane Kandel and Mayowa Ojo Owolabi and Songhomitra Panda‐Jonas and Anamika Pandey and Shrikant Pawar and Paolo Pedersini and Jeevan Pereira and Amir Radfar and Mohammad‐Mahdi Rashidi and David Laith Rawaf and Salman Rawaf and Reza Rawassizadeh and Seyed-Mansoor Rayegani and Daniela Ribeiro and Leonardo Roever and Basema Ahmad Saddik and Amirhossein Sahebkar and Sana Salehi and Lídia Sànchez-Riera and Francesco Sanmarchi and Milena M Santric-Milicevic and Saeed Shahabi and Masood Ali Shaikh and Elaheh Shaker and Mohammed Shannawaz and Rajendra Sharma and Saurab Sharma and Jeevan K. Shetty and Rahman Shiri and Parnian Shobeiri and Diego Augusto Santos Silva and Ambrish Singh and Jasvinder A. Singh and Surjit Singh and Søren Thorgaard Skou and Helen Slater and Mohammad Sadegh Soltani‐Zangbar and Antonina Vladimirovna Starodubova and Arash Tehrani‐Banihashemi and Sahel Valadan Tahbaz and Pascual Ruben Valdez and Bay Vo and Linh Gia Vu and Yuan‐Pang Wang and Seyed Hossein Yahyazadeh Jabbari and Naohiro Yonemoto and Ismaeel U. Yunusa and LYN M. MARCH and Kanyin Liane Ong and Theo Vos and Jacek A Kopec},
journal = {The Lancet Rheumatology},
year = {2023},
volume = {5},
number = {9},
pages = {e508--e522},
doi = {10.1016/s2665-9913(23)00163-7},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/s2665-9913(23)00163-7}
}TY - JOUR AU - Steinmetz, Jaimie D AU - Culbreth, Garland T AU - Haile, Lydia M AU - Rafferty, Quinn AU - Lo, Justin AU - Fukutaki, Kai Glenn AU - Cruz, Jessica A AU - Smith, Amanda Elizabeth AU - Vollset, Stein Emil AU - Brooks, Peter AU - Cross, Marita AU - Woolf, Anthony D. AU - Hagins, Hailey AU - Abbasi‐Kangevari, Mohsen AU - Abedi, Aidin AU - Ackerman, Ilana N. AU - Amu, Hubert AU - Antony, Benny AU - Arabloo, Jalal AU - Aravkin, Aleksandr Y. AU - Argaw, Ayele Mamo AU - Artamonov, Anton A AU - Ashraf, Tahira AU - Barrow, Amadou AU - Bearne, Lindsay AU - Benseñor, Isabela M. AU - Berhie, Alemshet Yirga AU - Bhardwaj, Nikha AU - Bhardwaj, Pankaj AU - Bhojaraja, Vijayalakshmi S AU - Bijani, Ali AU - Briant, Paul Svitil AU - Briggs, Andrew M. AU - Butt, Nadeem Shafique AU - Charan, Jaykaran AU - Chattu, Vijay Kumar AU - Cicuttini, Flavia AU - Coberly, Kaleb AU - Dadras, Omid AU - Dai, Xiaochen AU - Dandona, Lalit AU - Dandona, Rakhi AU - Luca, Katie E. de AU - Denova‐Gutiérrez, Edgar AU - Dharmaratne, Samath Dhamminda AU - Dhimal, Meghnath AU - Dianatinasab, Mostafa AU - Dreinhoefer, Karsten E AU - Elhadi, Muhammed AU - Farooque, Umar AU - Farpour, Hamid Reza AU - Filip, Irina AU - Fischer, Florian AU - Freitas, Marisa AU - Ganesan, Balasankar AU - Negese, Belete AU - Getachew, Tamiru AU - Ghamari, Seyyed‐Hadi AU - Ghashghaee, Ahmad AU - Gill, Tiffany K. AU - Golechha, Mahaveer AU - Golinelli, Davide AU - Gupta, Bhawna AU - Gupta, Veer Bala AU - Gupta, Vivek AU - Haddadi, Rasool AU - Hafezi‐Nejad, Nima AU - Halwani, Rabih AU - Hamidi, Samer AU - Hanif, Asif AU - Harlianto, Netanja I. AU - Haro, Josep Maria AU - Hartvigsen, Jan AU - Hay, Simon Iain AU - Hébert, Jeffrey J. AU - Heidari, Golnaz AU - Hosseini, Mohammad‐Salar AU - Hosseinzadeh, Mehdi AU - Hsiao, Alexander Kevin AU - Ilić, Irena AU - Ilić, Milena AU - Jacob, Louis AU - Jayawardena, Ranil AU - Jha, Ravi Prakash AU - Jonas, Jost Bruno AU - Joseph, Nitin AU - Kandel, Himal AU - Karaye, Ibraheem M. AU - Khan, Mohammad Jobair AU - Kim, Yun Jin AU - Kolahi, Ali‐Asghar AU - Korzh, Oleksii AU - Koteeswaran, Rajasekaran AU - Krishnamoorthy, Vijay K. AU - Kumar, G Anil AU - Kumar, Narinder AU - Lee, Sang-woong AU - Lim, Stephen S AU - Lobo, Stany Wilfred AU - Lucchetti, Giancarlo AU - Malekpour, Mohammad‐Reza AU - Malik, Ahmad Azam AU - Mandarano-Filho, Luiz Garcia AU - Martini, Santi AU - Mentis, Alexios‐Fotios A. AU - Mesregah, Mohamed Kamal AU - Meštrović, Tomislav AU - Mirrakhimov, Erkin Mirsaidovich AU - Misganaw, Awoke AU - Mohammadpourhodki, Reza AU - Mokdad, Ali H. AU - Momtazmanesh, Sara AU - Morrison, Shane Douglas AU - Murray, Christopher J L AU - Nassereldine, Hasan AU - Netsere, Henok Biresaw AU - Kandel, Sandhya Neupane AU - Owolabi, Mayowa Ojo AU - Panda‐Jonas, Songhomitra AU - Pandey, Anamika AU - Pawar, Shrikant AU - Pedersini, Paolo AU - Pereira, Jeevan AU - Radfar, Amir AU - Rashidi, Mohammad‐Mahdi AU - Rawaf, David Laith AU - Rawaf, Salman AU - Rawassizadeh, Reza AU - Rayegani, Seyed-Mansoor AU - Ribeiro, Daniela AU - Roever, Leonardo AU - Saddik, Basema Ahmad AU - Sahebkar, Amirhossein AU - Salehi, Sana AU - Sànchez-Riera, Lídia AU - Sanmarchi, Francesco AU - Santric-Milicevic, Milena M AU - Shahabi, Saeed AU - Shaikh, Masood Ali AU - Shaker, Elaheh AU - Shannawaz, Mohammed AU - Sharma, Rajendra AU - Sharma, Saurab AU - Shetty, Jeevan K. AU - Shiri, Rahman AU - Shobeiri, Parnian AU - Silva, Diego Augusto Santos AU - Singh, Ambrish AU - Singh, Jasvinder A. AU - Singh, Surjit AU - Skou, Søren Thorgaard AU - Slater, Helen AU - Soltani‐Zangbar, Mohammad Sadegh AU - Starodubova, Antonina Vladimirovna AU - Tehrani‐Banihashemi, Arash AU - Tahbaz, Sahel Valadan AU - Valdez, Pascual Ruben AU - Vo, Bay AU - Vu, Linh Gia AU - Wang, Yuan‐Pang AU - Jabbari, Seyed Hossein Yahyazadeh AU - Yonemoto, Naohiro AU - Yunusa, Ismaeel U. AU - MARCH, LYN M. AU - Ong, Kanyin Liane AU - Vos, Theo AU - Kopec, Jacek A TI - Global, regional, and national burden of osteoarthritis, 1990–2020 and projections to 2050: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 JO - The Lancet Rheumatology VL - 5 IS - 9 SP - e508 EP - e522 PY - 2023 DA - 2023/08/21 DO - 10.1016/s2665-9913(23)00163-7 UR - https://doi.org/10.1016/s2665-9913(23)00163-7 ER -
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