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Pierre Nouvellet, Sangeeta Bhatia, Anne Cori, Kylie E. C. Ainslie, Marc Baguelin, Samir Bhatt, Adhiratha Boonyasiri, Nicholas F. Brazeau, Lorenzo Cattarino, Laura Cooper and 41 more
In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, countries have sought to control SARS-CoV-2 transmission by restricting population movement through social distancing interventions, thus reducing the number of contacts. Mobility data represent an important proxy measure of social distancing, and here, we characterise the relationship between transmission and mobility for 52 countries around the world. Transmission significantly decreased with the initial reduction in mobility in 73% of the countries analysed, but we found evidence of decoupling of transmission and mobility following the relaxation of strict control measures for 80% of countries. For the majority of countries, mobility explained a substantial proportion of the variation in transmissibility (median adjusted R-squared: 48%, interquartile range - IQR - across countries [27-77%]). Where a change in the relationship occurred, predictive ability decreased after the relaxation; from a median adjusted R-squared of 74% (IQR across countries [49-91%]) pre-relaxation, to a median adjusted R-squared of 30% (IQR across countries [12-48%]) post-relaxation. In countries with a clear relationship between mobility and transmission both before and after strict control measures were relaxed, mobility was associated with lower transmission rates after control measures were relaxed indicating that the beneficial effects of ongoing social distancing behaviours were substantial.
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Nouvellet, P., Bhatia, S., Cori, A., Ainslie, K. E. C., Baguelin, M., Bhatt, S., Boonyasiri, A., Brazeau, N. F., Cattarino, L., Cooper, L., Coupland, H., Cucunubá, Z. M., Cuomo-Dannenburg, G., Dighe, A., Djaafara, B. A., Dorigatti, I., Eales, O. D., Elsland, S. L. V., Nascimento, F. F. D., … Donnelly, C. A. (2021). Reduction in mobility and COVID-19 transmission. Nature Communications, 12(1), 1090. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-21358-2
Nouvellet, Pierre, et al. "Reduction in mobility and COVID-19 transmission." Nature Communications, vol. 12, no. 1, 2021, pp. 1090, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-21358-2.
Nouvellet, Pierre, Sangeeta Bhatia, Anne Cori, Kylie E. C. Ainslie, Marc Baguelin, Samir Bhatt, Adhiratha Boonyasiri, et al. "Reduction in mobility and COVID-19 transmission." Nature Communications 12, no. 1 (2021): 1090. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-21358-2.
Nouvellet P., Bhatia S., Cori A. [и др.] Reduction in mobility and COVID-19 transmission // Nature Communications. — 2021. — Vol. 12, № 1. — P. 1090. — URL: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-21358-2
@article{nouvellet2021reduction,
title = {{Reduction in mobility and COVID-19 transmission}},
author = {Pierre Nouvellet and Sangeeta Bhatia and Anne Cori and Kylie E. C. Ainslie and Marc Baguelin and Samir Bhatt and Adhiratha Boonyasiri and Nicholas F. Brazeau and Lorenzo Cattarino and Laura Cooper and Helen Coupland and Zulma M. Cucunubá and Gina Cuomo-Dannenburg and Amy Dighe and Bimandra Adiputra Djaafara and Ilaria Dorigatti and Oliver D. Eales and Sabine L. van Elsland and Fabrícia Ferreira do Nascimento and Richard G. FitzJohn and Katy A. M. Gaythorpe and Lily Geidelberg and William D. Green and Arran Hamlet and Katharina Hauck and Wes R. Hinsley and Natsuko Imai and Benjamin Jeffrey and Edward Knock and Daniel Joseph Laydon and John A. Lees and Tara Danielle Mangal and Thomas A. Mellan and Gemma L. Nedjati-Gilani and Kris Varun Parag and Margarita Pons-Salort and Manon Ragonnet‐Cronin and Steven Riley and H. Juliette T. Unwin and Robert Verity and Michaela Vollmer and Erik Volz and Patrick G. T. Walker and Caroline E. Walters and Haowei Wang and Oliver John Watson and Charles Whittaker and Lilith K. Whittles and Xiaoyue Xi and Neil M. Ferguson and Christl Ann Donnelly},
journal = {Nature Communications},
year = {2021},
volume = {12},
number = {1},
pages = {1090},
doi = {10.1038/s41467-021-21358-2},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-21358-2}
}TY - JOUR AU - Nouvellet, Pierre AU - Bhatia, Sangeeta AU - Cori, Anne AU - Ainslie, Kylie E. C. AU - Baguelin, Marc AU - Bhatt, Samir AU - Boonyasiri, Adhiratha AU - Brazeau, Nicholas F. AU - Cattarino, Lorenzo AU - Cooper, Laura AU - Coupland, Helen AU - Cucunubá, Zulma M. AU - Cuomo-Dannenburg, Gina AU - Dighe, Amy AU - Djaafara, Bimandra Adiputra AU - Dorigatti, Ilaria AU - Eales, Oliver D. AU - Elsland, Sabine L. van AU - Nascimento, Fabrícia Ferreira do AU - FitzJohn, Richard G. AU - Gaythorpe, Katy A. M. AU - Geidelberg, Lily AU - Green, William D. AU - Hamlet, Arran AU - Hauck, Katharina AU - Hinsley, Wes R. AU - Imai, Natsuko AU - Jeffrey, Benjamin AU - Knock, Edward AU - Laydon, Daniel Joseph AU - Lees, John A. AU - Mangal, Tara Danielle AU - Mellan, Thomas A. AU - Nedjati-Gilani, Gemma L. AU - Parag, Kris Varun AU - Pons-Salort, Margarita AU - Ragonnet‐Cronin, Manon AU - Riley, Steven AU - Unwin, H. Juliette T. AU - Verity, Robert AU - Vollmer, Michaela AU - Volz, Erik AU - Walker, Patrick G. T. AU - Walters, Caroline E. AU - Wang, Haowei AU - Watson, Oliver John AU - Whittaker, Charles AU - Whittles, Lilith K. AU - Xi, Xiaoyue AU - Ferguson, Neil M. AU - Donnelly, Christl Ann TI - Reduction in mobility and COVID-19 transmission JO - Nature Communications VL - 12 IS - 1 SP - 1090 PY - 2021 DA - 2021/02/17 DO - 10.1038/s41467-021-21358-2 UR - https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-21358-2 ER -
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