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Kevin J. Rennert, Frank Errickson, Brian Prest, Lisa Rennels, Richard G. Newell, William A. Pizer, Cora Kingdon, Jordan Wingenroth, Roger M. Cooke, Bryan Parthum and 14 more
The social cost of carbon dioxide (SC-CO 2 ) measures the monetized value of the damages to society caused by an incremental metric tonne of CO 2 emissions and is a key metric informing climate policy. Used by governments and other decision-makers in benefit–cost analysis for over a decade, SC-CO 2 estimates draw on climate science, economics, demography and other disciplines. However, a 2017 report by the US National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine 1 (NASEM) highlighted that current SC-CO 2 estimates no longer reflect the latest research. The report provided a series of recommendations for improving the scientific basis, transparency and uncertainty characterization of SC-CO 2 estimates. Here we show that improved probabilistic socioeconomic projections, climate models, damage functions, and discounting methods that collectively reflect theoretically consistent valuation of risk, substantially increase estimates of the SC-CO 2 . Our preferred mean SC-CO 2 estimate is $185 per tonne of CO 2 ($44–$413 per tCO 2 : 5%–95% range, 2020 US dollars) at a near-term risk-free discount rate of 2%, a value 3.6 times higher than the US government’s current value of $51 per tCO 2 . Our estimates incorporate updated scientific understanding throughout all components of SC-CO 2 estimation in the new open-source Greenhouse Gas Impact Value Estimator (GIVE) model, in a manner fully responsive to the near-term NASEM recommendations. Our higher SC-CO 2 values, compared with estimates currently used in policy evaluation, substantially increase the estimated benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation and thereby increase the expected net benefits of more stringent climate policies.
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Rennert, K. J., Errickson, F., Prest, B., Rennels, L., Newell, R. G., Pizer, W. A., Kingdon, C., Wingenroth, J., Cooke, R. M., Parthum, B., Smith, D. J., Cromar, K. R., Diaz, D., Moore, F. C., Müller, U. K., Plevin, R. J., Raftery, A. E., Ševčíková, H., Sheets, H., … Anthoff, D. (2022). Comprehensive evidence implies a higher social cost of CO2. Nature, 610(7933), 687–692. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-022-05224-9
Rennert, Kevin J., et al. "Comprehensive evidence implies a higher social cost of CO2." Nature, vol. 610, no. 7933, 2022, pp. 687–692, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-022-05224-9.
Rennert, Kevin J., Frank Errickson, Brian Prest, Lisa Rennels, Richard G. Newell, William A. Pizer, Cora Kingdon, et al. "Comprehensive evidence implies a higher social cost of CO2." Nature 610, no. 7933 (2022): 687–692. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-022-05224-9.
Rennert K. J., Errickson F., Prest B. [и др.] Comprehensive evidence implies a higher social cost of CO2 // Nature. — 2022. — Vol. 610, № 7933. — P. 687–692. — URL: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-022-05224-9
@article{rennert2022comprehensive,
title = {{Comprehensive evidence implies a higher social cost of CO2}},
author = {Kevin J. Rennert and Frank Errickson and Brian Prest and Lisa Rennels and Richard G. Newell and William A. Pizer and Cora Kingdon and Jordan Wingenroth and Roger M. Cooke and Bryan Parthum and David J. Smith and Kevin R. Cromar and Delavane Diaz and Frances C. Moore and Ulrich K. Müller and Richard J. Plevin and Adrian E. Raftery and Hana Ševčíková and Hannah Sheets and James H. Stock and Tammy Tan and Mark W. Watson and Tony E. Wong and David Anthoff},
journal = {Nature},
year = {2022},
volume = {610},
number = {7933},
pages = {687--692},
doi = {10.1038/s41586-022-05224-9},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-022-05224-9}
}TY - JOUR AU - Rennert, Kevin J. AU - Errickson, Frank AU - Prest, Brian AU - Rennels, Lisa AU - Newell, Richard G. AU - Pizer, William A. AU - Kingdon, Cora AU - Wingenroth, Jordan AU - Cooke, Roger M. AU - Parthum, Bryan AU - Smith, David J. AU - Cromar, Kevin R. AU - Diaz, Delavane AU - Moore, Frances C. AU - Müller, Ulrich K. AU - Plevin, Richard J. AU - Raftery, Adrian E. AU - Ševčíková, Hana AU - Sheets, Hannah AU - Stock, James H. AU - Tan, Tammy AU - Watson, Mark W. AU - Wong, Tony E. AU - Anthoff, David TI - Comprehensive evidence implies a higher social cost of CO2 JO - Nature VL - 610 IS - 7933 SP - 687 EP - 692 PY - 2022 DA - 2022/09/01 DO - 10.1038/s41586-022-05224-9 UR - https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-022-05224-9 ER -
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