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Jun Cai, Xiaowei Deng, Juan Yang, Kaiyuan Sun, Hengcong Liu, Zhiyuan Chen, Cheng Peng, Xinhua Chen, Qianhui Wu, Junyi Zou and 8 more
Having adopted a dynamic zero-COVID strategy to respond to SARS-CoV-2 variants with higher transmissibility since August 2021, China is now considering whether, and for how long, this policy can remain in place. The debate has thus shifted towards the identification of mitigation strategies for minimizing disruption to the healthcare system in the case of a nationwide epidemic. To this aim, we developed an age-structured stochastic compartmental susceptible-latent-infectious-removed-susceptible model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission calibrated on the initial growth phase for the 2022 Omicron outbreak in Shanghai, to project COVID-19 burden (that is, number of cases, patients requiring hospitalization and intensive care, and deaths) under hypothetical mitigation scenarios. The model also considers age-specific vaccine coverage data, vaccine efficacy against different clinical endpoints, waning of immunity, different antiviral therapies and nonpharmaceutical interventions. We find that the level of immunity induced by the March 2022 vaccination campaign would be insufficient to prevent an Omicron wave that would result in exceeding critical care capacity with a projected intensive care unit peak demand of 15.6 times the existing capacity and causing approximately 1.55 million deaths. However, we also estimate that protecting vulnerable individuals by ensuring accessibility to vaccines and antiviral therapies, and maintaining implementation of nonpharmaceutical interventions could be sufficient to prevent overwhelming the healthcare system, suggesting that these factors should be points of emphasis in future mitigation policies.
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Cai, J., Deng, X., Yang, J., Sun, K., Liu, H., Chen, Z., Peng, C., Chen, X., Wu, Q., Zou, J., Sun, R., Zheng, W., Zhao, Z., Lu, W., Liang, Y., Zhou, X., Ajelli, M., & Yu, H. (2022). Modeling transmission of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron in China. Nature Medicine, 28(7), 1468–1475. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41591-022-01855-7
Cai, Jun, et al. "Modeling transmission of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron in China." Nature Medicine, vol. 28, no. 7, 2022, pp. 1468–1475, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41591-022-01855-7.
Cai, Jun, Xiaowei Deng, Juan Yang, Kaiyuan Sun, Hengcong Liu, Zhiyuan Chen, Cheng Peng, et al. "Modeling transmission of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron in China." Nature Medicine 28, no. 7 (2022): 1468–1475. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41591-022-01855-7.
Cai J., Deng X., Yang J. [и др.] Modeling transmission of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron in China // Nature Medicine. — 2022. — Vol. 28, № 7. — P. 1468–1475. — URL: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41591-022-01855-7
@article{cai2022modeling,
title = {{Modeling transmission of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron in China}},
author = {Jun Cai and Xiaowei Deng and Juan Yang and Kaiyuan Sun and Hengcong Liu and Zhiyuan Chen and Cheng Peng and Xinhua Chen and Qianhui Wu and Junyi Zou and Ruijia Sun and Wen Zheng and Zeyao Zhao and Wanying Lu and Yuxia Liang and Xiaoyu Zhou and Marco Ajelli and Hongjie Yu},
journal = {Nature Medicine},
year = {2022},
volume = {28},
number = {7},
pages = {1468--1475},
doi = {10.1038/s41591-022-01855-7},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41591-022-01855-7}
}TY - JOUR AU - Cai, Jun AU - Deng, Xiaowei AU - Yang, Juan AU - Sun, Kaiyuan AU - Liu, Hengcong AU - Chen, Zhiyuan AU - Peng, Cheng AU - Chen, Xinhua AU - Wu, Qianhui AU - Zou, Junyi AU - Sun, Ruijia AU - Zheng, Wen AU - Zhao, Zeyao AU - Lu, Wanying AU - Liang, Yuxia AU - Zhou, Xiaoyu AU - Ajelli, Marco AU - Yu, Hongjie TI - Modeling transmission of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron in China JO - Nature Medicine VL - 28 IS - 7 SP - 1468 EP - 1475 PY - 2022 DA - 2022/05/10 DO - 10.1038/s41591-022-01855-7 UR - https://doi.org/10.1038/s41591-022-01855-7 ER -
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