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Luke Kemp, Chi Xu, Joanna Jane Depledge, Kristie L. Ebi, Goodwin Gibbins, Timothy A. Kohler, Johan Rockström, Marten Scheffer, Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, Will Steffen, Timothy M. Lenton
Prudent risk management requires consideration of bad-to-worst-case scenarios. Yet, for climate change, such potential futures are poorly understood. Could anthropogenic climate change result in worldwide societal collapse or even eventual human extinction? At present, this is a dangerously underexplored topic. Yet there are ample reasons to suspect that climate change could result in a global catastrophe. Analyzing the mechanisms for these extreme consequences could help galvanize action, improve resilience, and inform policy, including emergency responses. We outline current knowledge about the likelihood of extreme climate change, discuss why understanding bad-to-worst cases is vital, articulate reasons for concern about catastrophic outcomes, define key terms, and put forward a research agenda. The proposed agenda covers four main questions: 1) What is the potential for climate change to drive mass extinction events? 2) What are the mechanisms that could result in human mass mortality and morbidity? 3) What are human societies' vulnerabilities to climate-triggered risk cascades, such as from conflict, political instability, and systemic financial risk? 4) How can these multiple strands of evidence-together with other global dangers-be usefully synthesized into an "integrated catastrophe assessment"? It is time for the scientific community to grapple with the challenge of better understanding catastrophic climate change.
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Kemp, L., Xu, C., Depledge, J. J., Ebi, K. L., Gibbins, G., Kohler, T. A., Rockström, J., Scheffer, M., Schellnhuber, H. J., Steffen, W., & Lenton, T. M. (2022). Climate Endgame: Exploring catastrophic climate change scenarios. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 119(34), e2108146119. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2108146119
Kemp, Luke, et al. "Climate Endgame: Exploring catastrophic climate change scenarios." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 119, no. 34, 2022, pp. e2108146119, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2108146119.
Kemp, Luke, Chi Xu, Joanna Jane Depledge, Kristie L. Ebi, Goodwin Gibbins, Timothy A. Kohler, Johan Rockström, et al. "Climate Endgame: Exploring catastrophic climate change scenarios." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 119, no. 34 (2022): e2108146119. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2108146119.
Kemp L., Xu C., Depledge J. J. [и др.] Climate Endgame: Exploring catastrophic climate change scenarios // Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. — 2022. — Vol. 119, № 34. — P. e2108146119. — URL: https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2108146119
@article{kemp2022climate,
title = {{Climate Endgame: Exploring catastrophic climate change scenarios}},
author = {Luke Kemp and Chi Xu and Joanna Jane Depledge and Kristie L. Ebi and Goodwin Gibbins and Timothy A. Kohler and Johan Rockström and Marten Scheffer and Hans Joachim Schellnhuber and Will Steffen and Timothy M. Lenton},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
year = {2022},
volume = {119},
number = {34},
pages = {e2108146119},
doi = {10.1073/pnas.2108146119},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2108146119}
}TY - JOUR AU - Kemp, Luke AU - Xu, Chi AU - Depledge, Joanna Jane AU - Ebi, Kristie L. AU - Gibbins, Goodwin AU - Kohler, Timothy A. AU - Rockström, Johan AU - Scheffer, Marten AU - Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim AU - Steffen, Will AU - Lenton, Timothy M. TI - Climate Endgame: Exploring catastrophic climate change scenarios JO - Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences VL - 119 IS - 34 SP - e2108146119 PY - 2022 DA - 2022/08/01 DO - 10.1073/pnas.2108146119 UR - https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2108146119 ER -
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