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Estee Y. Cramer, Evan L Ray, Velma K. Lopez, Johannes Bracher, Andrea Brennen, Alvaro J. Castro Rivadeneira, Aaron Gerding, Tilmann Gneiting, Katie House, Yuxin Huang and 285 more
Short-term probabilistic forecasts of the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States have served as a visible and important communication channel between the scientific modeling community and both the general public and decision-makers. Forecasting models provide specific, quantitative, and evaluable predictions that inform short-term decisions such as healthcare staffing needs, school closures, and allocation of medical supplies. Starting in April 2020, the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub (https://covid19forecasthub.org/) collected, disseminated, and synthesized tens of millions of specific predictions from more than 90 different academic, industry, and independent research groups. A multimodel ensemble forecast that combined predictions from dozens of groups every week provided the most consistently accurate probabilistic forecasts of incident deaths due to COVID-19 at the state and national level from April 2020 through October 2021. The performance of 27 individual models that submitted complete forecasts of COVID-19 deaths consistently throughout this year showed high variability in forecast skill across time, geospatial units, and forecast horizons. Two-thirds of the models evaluated showed better accuracy than a naïve baseline model. Forecast accuracy degraded as models made predictions further into the future, with probabilistic error at a 20-wk horizon three to five times larger than when predicting at a 1-wk horizon. This project underscores the role that collaboration and active coordination between governmental public-health agencies, academic modeling teams, and industry partners can play in developing modern modeling capabilities to support local, state, and federal response to outbreaks.
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Cramer, E. Y., Ray, E. L., Lopez, V. K., Bracher, J., Brennen, A., Rivadeneira, A. J. C., Gerding, A., Gneiting, T., House, K., Huang, Y., Jayawardena, D., Kanji, A. H., Khandelwal, A., Le, K., Mühlemann, A., Niemi, J., Shah, A., Stark, A., Wang, Y., … Reich, N. G. (2022). Evaluation of individual and ensemble probabilistic forecasts of COVID-19 mortality in the United States. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 119(15), e2113561119. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2113561119
Cramer, Estee Y., et al. "Evaluation of individual and ensemble probabilistic forecasts of COVID-19 mortality in the United States." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 119, no. 15, 2022, pp. e2113561119, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2113561119.
Cramer, Estee Y., Evan L Ray, Velma K. Lopez, Johannes Bracher, Andrea Brennen, Alvaro J. Castro Rivadeneira, Aaron Gerding, et al. "Evaluation of individual and ensemble probabilistic forecasts of COVID-19 mortality in the United States." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 119, no. 15 (2022): e2113561119. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2113561119.
Cramer E. Y., Ray E. L., Lopez V. K. [и др.] Evaluation of individual and ensemble probabilistic forecasts of COVID-19 mortality in the United States // Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. — 2022. — Vol. 119, № 15. — P. e2113561119. — URL: https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2113561119
@article{cramer2022evaluation,
title = {{Evaluation of individual and ensemble probabilistic forecasts of COVID-19 mortality in the United States}},
author = {Estee Y. Cramer and Evan L Ray and Velma K. Lopez and Johannes Bracher and Andrea Brennen and Alvaro J. Castro Rivadeneira and Aaron Gerding and Tilmann Gneiting and Katie House and Yuxin Huang and Dasuni Jayawardena and Abdul Hannan Kanji and Ayush Khandelwal and Khoa Le and Anja Mühlemann and Jarad Niemi and Apurv Shah and Ariane Stark and Yijin Wang and Nutcha Wattanachit and Martha Zorn and Youyang Gu and Sansiddh Jain and Nayana Bannur and Ayush Deva and Mihir Kulkarni and Srujana Merugu and Alpan Raval and Siddhant Shingi and Avtansh Tiwari and Jerome White and Neil F. Abernethy and Spencer Woody and Maytal Dahan and Spencer J. Fox and Kelly Gaither and Michael Lachmann and Lauren W. Ancel and James G. Scott and Mauricio Tec and Ajitesh Srivastava and Glover E. George and Jeffrey C. Cegan and Ian Dettwiller and William P. England and Matthew W. Farthing and Robert H. Hunter and Brandon J. Lafferty and Igor Linkov and Michael L. Mayo and Matthew D. Parno and Michael A. Rowland and Benjamin D. Trump and Yanli Zhang‐James and Samuel Chen and Stephen V. Faraone and Jonathan Hess and Christopher P. Morley and Asif Salekin and Dongliang Wang and Sabrina Corsetti and Thomas M. Baer and Marisa C. Eisenberg and Karl Falb and Yitao Huang and Emily Toth Martin and Ella McCauley and Robert Logan Myers and Tom Schwarz and Daniel R. Sheldon and Graham Gibson and Rose Yu and Liyao Gao and Yi-An Ma and Dongxia Wu and Xifeng Yan and Xiaoyong Jin and Yu-Xiang Wang and YangQuan Chen and Lihong Guo and Yanting Zhao and Quanquan Gu and Jinghui Chen and Lingxiao Wang and Pan Xu and Weitong Zhang and Difan Zou and Hannah Biegel and Joceline C. Lega and Steve McConnell and VP Nagraj and Stephanie L. Guertin and Christopher Hulme-Lowe and Stephen Turner and Yunfeng Shi and Xuegang Jeff Ban and Robert L. Walraven and Qi‐Jun Hong and Stanley Kong and Axel van de Walle and James Turtle and M. Ben-Nun and Steven Riley and Pete Riley and Ugur Koyluoglu and David DesRoches and Pedro Forli and Bruce H. Hamory and Christina Kyriakides and Helen Leis and John Milliken and Michael Moloney and James Morgan and Ninad Nirgudkar and Gokce Ozcan and Noah Piwonka and Matt Ravi and Chris Schrader and Elizabeth A. Shakhnovich and Daniel Siegel and Ryan Spatz and Chris Stiefeling and Barrie Wilkinson and Alexander Wong and Sean Cavany and Guido España and Sean M. Moore and Rachel J. Oidtman and T. Alex Perkins and David Kraus and Andrea Kraus and Zhifeng Gao and Jiang Bian and Wei Cao and Juan Lavista Ferres and Chaozhuo Li and Tie‐Yan Liu and Xing Xie and Shun Zhang and Shun Zheng and Alessandro Vespignani and Matteo Chinazzi and Jessica T. Davis and Kunpeng Mu and Ana Pastore y Piontti and Xinyue Xiong and Andrew Zheng and Jackie Baek and Vivek F. Farias and Andreea Georgescu and Retsef Levi and Deeksha Sinha and Joshua Wilde and Georgia Perakis and Mohammed Amine Bennouna and David Nze Ndong and Divya Singhvi and Ιoannis Spantidakis and Leann Thayaparan and Asterios Tsiourvas and Arnab Sarker and Ali Jadbabaie and Devavrat Shah B and Nicolás Della Penna and Leo Anthony Celi and Saketh Sundar and Russell D. Wolfinger and Dave Osthus and Lauren A Castro and Geoffrey Colin Fairchild and Isaac J. Michaud and Dean Karlen and Matt Kinsey and Luke C. Mullany and Kaitlin Rainwater‐Lovett and Lauren Shin and Katharine Tallaksen and Shelby Wilson and Elizabeth C. Lee and Juan Dent and Kyra H. Grantz and Alison L. Hill and Joshua Kaminsky and Kathryn Kaminsky and Lindsay T. Keegan and Stephen A. Lauer and Joseph C. Lemaitre and Justin Lessler and Hannah R. Meredith and Javier Perez‐Saez and Sam Shah and Claire P. Smith and Shaun Truelove and Josh Wills and Maximilian Marshall and Lauren Gardner and Kristen Nixon and John C. Burant and Li Wang and Lei Gao and Zhiling Gu and Myungjin Kim and Xinyi Li and Guannan Wang and Yueying Wang and Shan Yu and Robert C. Reiner and Ryan M Barber and Emmanuela E. Gakidou and Simon Iain Hay and Steve Lim and Chris Murray and David M. Pigott and Heidi Gurung and Prasith Baccam and Steven A. Stage and Brad T. Suchoski and B. Aditya Prakash and Bijaya Adhikari and Jiaming Cui and Alexander Rodríguez and Anika Tabassum and Jiajia Xie and Pınar Keskinocak and John Asplund and Arden Baxter and Buse Eylul Oruc and Nicoleta Serban and Sercan Ö. Arık and Mike Dusenberry and Arkady Epshteyn and Elli Kanal and Long Tan Le and Chunliang Li and Tomas Pfister and Dario Sava and Rajarishi Sinha and Thomas C. Tsai and Nathanael C. Yoder and Jinsung Yoon and Leyou Zhang and Sam Abbott and Nikos I Bosse and Sebastian Funk and Joel Hellewell and Sophie R. Meakin and Katharine Sherratt and Mingyuan Zhou and Rahi Kalantari and Teresa K. Yamana and Sen Pei and Jeffrey L. Shaman and Michael Lingzhi Li and Dimitris Bertsimas and Omar Skali Lami and Soni Saksham and Hamza Tazi Bouardi and Turgay Ayer and Madeline G. Adee and Jagpreet Chhatwal and Ozden Onur Dalgic and Mary Ann Ladd and Benjamin Paul Linas and Peter P. Mueller and Jade Xiao and Yuanjia Wang and Qinxia Wang and Shanghong Xie and Donglin Zeng and Alden Green and Jacob Bien and Logan Brooks and Addison J. Hu and Maria Jahja and Daniel J. McDonald and Balasubramanian Narasimhan and Collin A. Politsch and Samyak Rajanala and Aaron Rumack and Noah Simon and Ryan J. Tibshirani and Robert John Tibshirani and Valérie Ventura and Larry Wasserman and Eamon B. O’Dea and John M. Drake and Roberto Pagano and Quoc T. Tran and Lam Si Tung Ho and Huong Huynh and Jo Walker and Rachel B. Slayton and Michael A. Johansson and Matthew Biggerstaff and Nicholas G Reich},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
year = {2022},
volume = {119},
number = {15},
pages = {e2113561119},
doi = {10.1073/pnas.2113561119},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2113561119}
}TY - JOUR AU - Cramer, Estee Y. AU - Ray, Evan L AU - Lopez, Velma K. AU - Bracher, Johannes AU - Brennen, Andrea AU - Rivadeneira, Alvaro J. Castro AU - Gerding, Aaron AU - Gneiting, Tilmann AU - House, Katie AU - Huang, Yuxin AU - Jayawardena, Dasuni AU - Kanji, Abdul Hannan AU - Khandelwal, Ayush AU - Le, Khoa AU - Mühlemann, Anja AU - Niemi, Jarad AU - Shah, Apurv AU - Stark, Ariane AU - Wang, Yijin AU - Wattanachit, Nutcha AU - Zorn, Martha AU - Gu, Youyang AU - Jain, Sansiddh AU - Bannur, Nayana AU - Deva, Ayush AU - Kulkarni, Mihir AU - Merugu, Srujana AU - Raval, Alpan AU - Shingi, Siddhant AU - Tiwari, Avtansh AU - White, Jerome AU - Abernethy, Neil F. AU - Woody, Spencer AU - Dahan, Maytal AU - Fox, Spencer J. AU - Gaither, Kelly AU - Lachmann, Michael AU - Ancel, Lauren W. AU - Scott, James G. AU - Tec, Mauricio AU - Srivastava, Ajitesh AU - George, Glover E. AU - Cegan, Jeffrey C. AU - Dettwiller, Ian AU - England, William P. AU - Farthing, Matthew W. AU - Hunter, Robert H. AU - Lafferty, Brandon J. AU - Linkov, Igor AU - Mayo, Michael L. AU - Parno, Matthew D. AU - Rowland, Michael A. AU - Trump, Benjamin D. AU - Zhang‐James, Yanli AU - Chen, Samuel AU - Faraone, Stephen V. AU - Hess, Jonathan AU - Morley, Christopher P. AU - Salekin, Asif AU - Wang, Dongliang AU - Corsetti, Sabrina AU - Baer, Thomas M. AU - Eisenberg, Marisa C. AU - Falb, Karl AU - Huang, Yitao AU - Martin, Emily Toth AU - McCauley, Ella AU - Myers, Robert Logan AU - Schwarz, Tom AU - Sheldon, Daniel R. AU - Gibson, Graham AU - Yu, Rose AU - Gao, Liyao AU - Ma, Yi-An AU - Wu, Dongxia AU - Yan, Xifeng AU - Jin, Xiaoyong AU - Wang, Yu-Xiang AU - Chen, YangQuan AU - Guo, Lihong AU - Zhao, Yanting AU - Gu, Quanquan AU - Chen, Jinghui AU - Wang, Lingxiao AU - Xu, Pan AU - Zhang, Weitong AU - Zou, Difan AU - Biegel, Hannah AU - Lega, Joceline C. AU - McConnell, Steve AU - Nagraj, VP AU - Guertin, Stephanie L. AU - Hulme-Lowe, Christopher AU - Turner, Stephen AU - Shi, Yunfeng AU - Ban, Xuegang Jeff AU - Walraven, Robert L. AU - Hong, Qi‐Jun AU - Kong, Stanley AU - Walle, Axel van de AU - Turtle, James AU - Ben-Nun, M. AU - Riley, Steven AU - Riley, Pete AU - Koyluoglu, Ugur AU - DesRoches, David AU - Forli, Pedro AU - Hamory, Bruce H. AU - Kyriakides, Christina AU - Leis, Helen AU - Milliken, John AU - Moloney, Michael AU - Morgan, James AU - Nirgudkar, Ninad AU - Ozcan, Gokce AU - Piwonka, Noah AU - Ravi, Matt AU - Schrader, Chris AU - Shakhnovich, Elizabeth A. AU - Siegel, Daniel AU - Spatz, Ryan AU - Stiefeling, Chris AU - Wilkinson, Barrie AU - Wong, Alexander AU - Cavany, Sean AU - España, Guido AU - Moore, Sean M. AU - Oidtman, Rachel J. AU - Perkins, T. Alex AU - Kraus, David AU - Kraus, Andrea AU - Gao, Zhifeng AU - Bian, Jiang AU - Cao, Wei AU - Ferres, Juan Lavista AU - Li, Chaozhuo AU - Liu, Tie‐Yan AU - Xie, Xing AU - Zhang, Shun AU - Zheng, Shun AU - Vespignani, Alessandro AU - Chinazzi, Matteo AU - Davis, Jessica T. AU - Mu, Kunpeng AU - Piontti, Ana Pastore y AU - Xiong, Xinyue AU - Zheng, Andrew AU - Baek, Jackie AU - Farias, Vivek F. AU - Georgescu, Andreea AU - Levi, Retsef AU - Sinha, Deeksha AU - Wilde, Joshua AU - Perakis, Georgia AU - Bennouna, Mohammed Amine AU - Ndong, David Nze AU - Singhvi, Divya AU - Spantidakis, Ιoannis AU - Thayaparan, Leann AU - Tsiourvas, Asterios AU - Sarker, Arnab AU - Jadbabaie, Ali AU - B, Devavrat Shah AU - Penna, Nicolás Della AU - Celi, Leo Anthony AU - Sundar, Saketh AU - Wolfinger, Russell D. AU - Osthus, Dave AU - Castro, Lauren A AU - Fairchild, Geoffrey Colin AU - Michaud, Isaac J. AU - Karlen, Dean AU - Kinsey, Matt AU - Mullany, Luke C. AU - Rainwater‐Lovett, Kaitlin AU - Shin, Lauren AU - Tallaksen, Katharine AU - Wilson, Shelby AU - Lee, Elizabeth C. AU - Dent, Juan AU - Grantz, Kyra H. AU - Hill, Alison L. AU - Kaminsky, Joshua AU - Kaminsky, Kathryn AU - Keegan, Lindsay T. AU - Lauer, Stephen A. AU - Lemaitre, Joseph C. AU - Lessler, Justin AU - Meredith, Hannah R. AU - Perez‐Saez, Javier AU - Shah, Sam AU - Smith, Claire P. AU - Truelove, Shaun AU - Wills, Josh AU - Marshall, Maximilian AU - Gardner, Lauren AU - Nixon, Kristen AU - Burant, John C. AU - Wang, Li AU - Gao, Lei AU - Gu, Zhiling AU - Kim, Myungjin AU - Li, Xinyi AU - Wang, Guannan AU - Wang, Yueying AU - Yu, Shan AU - Reiner, Robert C. AU - Barber, Ryan M AU - Gakidou, Emmanuela E. AU - Hay, Simon Iain AU - Lim, Steve AU - Murray, Chris AU - Pigott, David M. AU - Gurung, Heidi AU - Baccam, Prasith AU - Stage, Steven A. AU - Suchoski, Brad T. AU - Prakash, B. Aditya AU - Adhikari, Bijaya AU - Cui, Jiaming AU - Rodríguez, Alexander AU - Tabassum, Anika AU - Xie, Jiajia AU - Keskinocak, Pınar AU - Asplund, John AU - Baxter, Arden AU - Oruc, Buse Eylul AU - Serban, Nicoleta AU - Arık, Sercan Ö. AU - Dusenberry, Mike AU - Epshteyn, Arkady AU - Kanal, Elli AU - Le, Long Tan AU - Li, Chunliang AU - Pfister, Tomas AU - Sava, Dario AU - Sinha, Rajarishi AU - Tsai, Thomas C. AU - Yoder, Nathanael C. AU - Yoon, Jinsung AU - Zhang, Leyou AU - Abbott, Sam AU - Bosse, Nikos I AU - Funk, Sebastian AU - Hellewell, Joel AU - Meakin, Sophie R. AU - Sherratt, Katharine AU - Zhou, Mingyuan AU - Kalantari, Rahi AU - Yamana, Teresa K. AU - Pei, Sen AU - Shaman, Jeffrey L. AU - Li, Michael Lingzhi AU - Bertsimas, Dimitris AU - Lami, Omar Skali AU - Saksham, Soni AU - Bouardi, Hamza Tazi AU - Ayer, Turgay AU - Adee, Madeline G. AU - Chhatwal, Jagpreet AU - Dalgic, Ozden Onur AU - Ladd, Mary Ann AU - Linas, Benjamin Paul AU - Mueller, Peter P. AU - Xiao, Jade AU - Wang, Yuanjia AU - Wang, Qinxia AU - Xie, Shanghong AU - Zeng, Donglin AU - Green, Alden AU - Bien, Jacob AU - Brooks, Logan AU - Hu, Addison J. AU - Jahja, Maria AU - McDonald, Daniel J. AU - Narasimhan, Balasubramanian AU - Politsch, Collin A. AU - Rajanala, Samyak AU - Rumack, Aaron AU - Simon, Noah AU - Tibshirani, Ryan J. AU - Tibshirani, Robert John AU - Ventura, Valérie AU - Wasserman, Larry AU - O’Dea, Eamon B. AU - Drake, John M. AU - Pagano, Roberto AU - Tran, Quoc T. AU - Ho, Lam Si Tung AU - Huynh, Huong AU - Walker, Jo AU - Slayton, Rachel B. AU - Johansson, Michael A. AU - Biggerstaff, Matthew AU - Reich, Nicholas G TI - Evaluation of individual and ensemble probabilistic forecasts of COVID-19 mortality in the United States JO - Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences VL - 119 IS - 15 SP - e2113561119 PY - 2022 DA - 2022/04/08 DO - 10.1073/pnas.2113561119 UR - https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2113561119 ER -
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