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Jonathan Michael Read, Jessica R. E. Bridgen, Derek A. T. Cummings, Antonia Ying Wai Ho, Chris Jewell
Since first identified, the epidemic scale of the recently emerged novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in Wuhan, China, has increased rapidly, with cases arising across China and other countries and regions. using a transmission model, we estimate a basic reproductive number of 3.11 (95%CI, 2.39–4.13); 58–76% of transmissions must be prevented to stop increasing; Wuhan case ascertainment of 5.0% (3.6–7.4); 21022 (11090–33490) total infections in Wuhan 1 to 22 January. Changes to previous version case data updated to include 22 Jan 2020; we did not use cases reported after this period as cases were reported at the province level hereafter, and large-scale control interventions were initiated on 23 Jan 2020; improved likelihood function, better accounting for first 41 confirmed cases, and now using all infections (rather than just cases detected) in Wuhan for prediction of infection in international travellers; improved characterization of uncertainty in parameters, and calculation of epidemic trajectory confidence intervals using a more statistically rigorous method; extended range of latent period in sensitivity analysis to reflect reports of up to 6 day incubation period in household clusters; removed travel restriction analysis, as different modelling approaches (e.g. stochastic transmission, rather than deterministic transmission) are more appropriate to such analyses.
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Read, J. M., Bridgen, J. R. E., Cummings, D. A. T., Ho, A. Y. W., & Jewell, C. (2021). Novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV (COVID-19): early estimation of epidemiological parameters and epidemic size estimates. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B Biological Sciences, 376(1829), 20200265. https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2020.0265
Read, Jonathan Michael, et al. "Novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV (COVID-19): early estimation of epidemiological parameters and epidemic size estimates." Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B Biological Sciences, vol. 376, no. 1829, 2021, pp. 20200265, https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2020.0265.
Read, Jonathan Michael, Jessica R. E. Bridgen, Derek A. T. Cummings, Antonia Ying Wai Ho, and Chris Jewell. "Novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV (COVID-19): early estimation of epidemiological parameters and epidemic size estimates." Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B Biological Sciences 376, no. 1829 (2021): 20200265. https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2020.0265.
Read J. M., Bridgen J. R. E., Cummings D. A. T. [и др.] Novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV (COVID-19): early estimation of epidemiological parameters and epidemic size estimates // Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B Biological Sciences. — 2021. — Vol. 376, № 1829. — P. 20200265. — URL: https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2020.0265
@article{read2021novel,
title = {{Novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV (COVID-19): early estimation of epidemiological parameters and epidemic size estimates}},
author = {Jonathan Michael Read and Jessica R. E. Bridgen and Derek A. T. Cummings and Antonia Ying Wai Ho and Chris Jewell},
journal = {Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B Biological Sciences},
year = {2021},
volume = {376},
number = {1829},
pages = {20200265},
doi = {10.1098/rstb.2020.0265},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2020.0265}
}TY - JOUR AU - Read, Jonathan Michael AU - Bridgen, Jessica R. E. AU - Cummings, Derek A. T. AU - Ho, Antonia Ying Wai AU - Jewell, Chris TI - Novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV (COVID-19): early estimation of epidemiological parameters and epidemic size estimates JO - Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B Biological Sciences VL - 376 IS - 1829 SP - 20200265 PY - 2021 DA - 2021/05/31 DO - 10.1098/rstb.2020.0265 UR - https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2020.0265 ER -
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