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Hongbo Duan, Sheng Zhou, Kejun Jiang, Christoph Bertram, Mathijs J. H. M. Harmsen, Elmar Kriegler, Detlef Peter van Vuuren, Shouyang Wang, Shinichiro Fujimori, Massimo Tavoni and 4 more
Given the increasing interest in keeping global warming below 1.5°C, a key question is what this would mean for China's emission pathway, energy restructuring, and decarbonization. By conducting a multimodel study, we find that the 1.5°C-consistent goal would require China to reduce its carbon emissions and energy consumption by more than 90 and 39%, respectively, compared with the "no policy" case. Negative emission technologies play an important role in achieving near-zero emissions, with captured carbon accounting on average for 20% of the total reductions in 2050. Our multimodel comparisons reveal large differences in necessary emission reductions across sectors, whereas what is consistent is that the power sector is required to achieve full decarbonization by 2050. The cross-model averages indicate that China's accumulated policy costs may amount to 2.8 to 5.7% of its gross domestic product by 2050, given the 1.5°C warming limit.
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Duan, H., Zhou, S., Jiang, K., Bertram, C., Harmsen, M. J. H. M., Kriegler, E., Vuuren, D. P. V., Wang, S., Fujimori, S., Tavoni, M., Ming, X., Keramidas, K., Iyer, G. C., & Edmonds, J. (2021). Assessing China’s efforts to pursue the 1.5°C warming limit. Science, 372(6540), 378–385. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aba8767
Duan, Hongbo, et al. "Assessing China’s efforts to pursue the 1.5°C warming limit." Science, vol. 372, no. 6540, 2021, pp. 378–385, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aba8767.
Duan, Hongbo, Sheng Zhou, Kejun Jiang, Christoph Bertram, Mathijs J. H. M. Harmsen, Elmar Kriegler, Detlef Peter van Vuuren, et al. "Assessing China’s efforts to pursue the 1.5°C warming limit." Science 372, no. 6540 (2021): 378–385. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aba8767.
Duan H., Zhou S., Jiang K. [и др.] Assessing China’s efforts to pursue the 1.5°C warming limit // Science. — 2021. — Vol. 372, № 6540. — P. 378–385. — URL: https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aba8767
@article{duan2021assessing,
title = {{Assessing China’s efforts to pursue the 1.5°C warming limit}},
author = {Hongbo Duan and Sheng Zhou and Kejun Jiang and Christoph Bertram and Mathijs J. H. M. Harmsen and Elmar Kriegler and Detlef Peter van Vuuren and Shouyang Wang and Shinichiro Fujimori and Massimo Tavoni and Xi Ming and Kimon Keramidas and Gokul C. Iyer and Jae Edmonds},
journal = {Science},
year = {2021},
volume = {372},
number = {6540},
pages = {378--385},
doi = {10.1126/science.aba8767},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aba8767}
}TY - JOUR AU - Duan, Hongbo AU - Zhou, Sheng AU - Jiang, Kejun AU - Bertram, Christoph AU - Harmsen, Mathijs J. H. M. AU - Kriegler, Elmar AU - Vuuren, Detlef Peter van AU - Wang, Shouyang AU - Fujimori, Shinichiro AU - Tavoni, Massimo AU - Ming, Xi AU - Keramidas, Kimon AU - Iyer, Gokul C. AU - Edmonds, Jae TI - Assessing China’s efforts to pursue the 1.5°C warming limit JO - Science VL - 372 IS - 6540 SP - 378 EP - 385 PY - 2021 DA - 2021/04/22 DO - 10.1126/science.aba8767 UR - https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aba8767 ER -
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