Estimated transmissibility and impact of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 in England

Published: 2021-03-03
Venue: Science, vol. 372, no. 6538
Cited by: 2,556
Open access: Yes, hybrid
DOI: 10.1126/science.abg3055
PubMed: 33658326

Abstract

A severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variant, VOC 202012/01 (lineage B.1.1.7), emerged in southeast England in September 2020 and is rapidly spreading toward fixation. Using a variety of statistical and dynamic modeling approaches, we estimate that this variant has a 43 to 90% (range of 95% credible intervals, 38 to 130%) higher reproduction number than preexisting variants. A fitted two-strain dynamic transmission model shows that VOC 202012/01 will lead to large resurgences of COVID-19 cases. Without stringent control measures, including limited closure of educational institutions and a greatly accelerated vaccine rollout, COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths across England in the first 6 months of 2021 were projected to exceed those in 2020. VOC 202012/01 has spread globally and exhibits a similar transmission increase (59 to 74%) in Denmark, Switzerland, and the United States.

@article{davies2021estimated, title = {{Estimated transmissibility and impact of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 in England}}, author = {Nicholas G. Davies and Sam Abbott and Rosanna C. Barnard and Christopher I Jarvis and Adam J. Kucharski and James D Munday and Carl A. B. Pearson and Timothy Russell and Damien C. Tully and Alex Washburne and Tom Wenseleers and Amy Gimma and William Waites and Kerry LM Wong and Kevin van Zandvoort and Justin D. Silverman and CMMID COVID-19 Working Group and Karla Diaz‐Ordaz and Ruth H. Keogh and Rosalind M. Eggo and Sebastian Funk and Mark Jit and Katherine E. Atkins and W. John Edmunds}, journal = {Science}, year = {2021}, volume = {372}, number = {6538}, doi = {10.1126/science.abg3055}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abg3055} }

TY - JOUR AU - Davies, Nicholas G. AU - Abbott, Sam AU - Barnard, Rosanna C. AU - Jarvis, Christopher I AU - Kucharski, Adam J. AU - Munday, James D AU - Pearson, Carl A. B. AU - Russell, Timothy AU - Tully, Damien C. AU - Washburne, Alex AU - Wenseleers, Tom AU - Gimma, Amy AU - Waites, William AU - Wong, Kerry LM AU - Zandvoort, Kevin van AU - Silverman, Justin D. AU - CMMID COVID-19 Working Group AU - Diaz‐Ordaz, Karla AU - Keogh, Ruth H. AU - Eggo, Rosalind M. AU - Funk, Sebastian AU - Jit, Mark AU - Atkins, Katherine E. AU - Edmunds, W. John TI - Estimated transmissibility and impact of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 in England JO - Science VL - 372 IS - 6538 PY - 2021 DA - 2021/03/03 DO - 10.1126/science.abg3055 UR - https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abg3055 ER -

Estimated transmissibility and impact of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 in England

Abstract

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Estimated transmissibility and impact of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 in England

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