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David I. Armstrong McKay, Arie Staal, Jesse F. Abrams, Ricarda Winkelmann, Boris Sakschewski, Sina Loriani, Ingo Fetzer, Sarah Cornell, Johan Rockström, Timothy M. Lenton
Climate tipping points occur when change in a part of the climate system becomes self-perpetuating beyond a warming threshold, leading to substantial Earth system impacts. Synthesizing paleoclimate, observational, and model-based studies, we provide a revised shortlist of global "core" tipping elements and regional "impact" tipping elements and their temperature thresholds. Current global warming of ~1.1°C above preindustrial temperatures already lies within the lower end of some tipping point uncertainty ranges. Several tipping points may be triggered in the Paris Agreement range of 1.5 to <2°C global warming, with many more likely at the 2 to 3°C of warming expected on current policy trajectories. This strengthens the evidence base for urgent action to mitigate climate change and to develop improved tipping point risk assessment, early warning capability, and adaptation strategies.
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McKay, D. I. A., Staal, A., Abrams, J. F., Winkelmann, R., Sakschewski, B., Loriani, S., Fetzer, I., Cornell, S., Rockström, J., & Lenton, T. M. (2022). Exceeding 1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points. Science, 377(6611), eabn7950. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abn7950
McKay, David I. Armstrong, et al. "Exceeding 1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points." Science, vol. 377, no. 6611, 2022, pp. eabn7950, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abn7950.
McKay, David I. Armstrong, Arie Staal, Jesse F. Abrams, Ricarda Winkelmann, Boris Sakschewski, Sina Loriani, Ingo Fetzer, Sarah Cornell, Johan Rockström, and Timothy M. Lenton. "Exceeding 1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points." Science 377, no. 6611 (2022): eabn7950. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abn7950.
McKay D. I. A., Staal A., Abrams J. F. [и др.] Exceeding 1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points // Science. — 2022. — Vol. 377, № 6611. — P. eabn7950. — URL: https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abn7950
@article{mckay2022exceeding,
title = {{Exceeding 1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points}},
author = {David I. Armstrong McKay and Arie Staal and Jesse F. Abrams and Ricarda Winkelmann and Boris Sakschewski and Sina Loriani and Ingo Fetzer and Sarah Cornell and Johan Rockström and Timothy M. Lenton},
journal = {Science},
year = {2022},
volume = {377},
number = {6611},
pages = {eabn7950},
doi = {10.1126/science.abn7950},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abn7950}
}TY - JOUR AU - McKay, David I. Armstrong AU - Staal, Arie AU - Abrams, Jesse F. AU - Winkelmann, Ricarda AU - Sakschewski, Boris AU - Loriani, Sina AU - Fetzer, Ingo AU - Cornell, Sarah AU - Rockström, Johan AU - Lenton, Timothy M. TI - Exceeding 1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points JO - Science VL - 377 IS - 6611 SP - eabn7950 PY - 2022 DA - 2022/09/08 DO - 10.1126/science.abn7950 UR - https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abn7950 ER -
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