- Published
- 2021-03-30
- Venue
- American Economic Review, vol. 111, no. 4, pp. 1092-1125
- Cited by
- 450
- Open access
- No free copy found
- DOI
- 10.1257/aer.20190964
Abstract
This paper studies how changes in oil supply expectations affect the oil price and the macroeconomy. Using a novel identification design, exploiting institutional features of OPEC and high-frequency data, I identify an oil supply news shock. These shocks have statistically and economically significant effects. Negative news leads to an immediate increase in oil prices, a gradual fall in oil production, and an increase in inventories. This has consequences for the US economy: activity falls, prices and inflation expectations rise, and the dollar depreciates, providing evidence for a strong channel operating through supply expectations. (JEL E31, E32, F31, Q35, Q38, Q43)
Cite this paper
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- APA 7
Känzig, D. R. (2021). The Macroeconomic Effects of Oil Supply News: Evidence from OPEC Announcements. American Economic Review, 111(4), 1092–1125. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20190964
- MLA 9
Känzig, Diego R. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Oil Supply News: Evidence from OPEC Announcements." American Economic Review, vol. 111, no. 4, 2021, pp. 1092–1125, https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20190964.
- Chicago
Känzig, Diego R. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Oil Supply News: Evidence from OPEC Announcements." American Economic Review 111, no. 4 (2021): 1092–1125. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20190964.
- GOST
Känzig D. R. The Macroeconomic Effects of Oil Supply News: Evidence from OPEC Announcements // American Economic Review. — 2021. — Vol. 111, № 4. — P. 1092–1125. — URL: https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20190964
- BibTeX
@article{kanzig2021macroeconomic, title = {{The Macroeconomic Effects of Oil Supply News: Evidence from OPEC Announcements}}, author = {Diego R. Känzig}, journal = {American Economic Review}, year = {2021}, volume = {111}, number = {4}, pages = {1092--1125}, doi = {10.1257/aer.20190964}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20190964} }- RIS
TY - JOUR AU - Känzig, Diego R. TI - The Macroeconomic Effects of Oil Supply News: Evidence from OPEC Announcements JO - American Economic Review VL - 111 IS - 4 SP - 1092 EP - 1125 PY - 2021 DA - 2021/03/30 DO - 10.1257/aer.20190964 UR - https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20190964 ER -
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